5th Theme Park ?

[addicted2dizney]

There will never be a 5th major theme park at WDW

Why do you say that? Believe me, I am truly asking, I have never heard a word about a 5th park but I also didn't even know about AK until I was there in Jan 1998 and they were announcing the opening in April 1998!

 

[MJMcBride]

Why do you say that? Believe me, I am truly asking, I have never heard a word about a 5th park but I also didn't even know about AK until I was there in Jan 1998 and they were announcing the opening in April 1998!

simple. Its not cost effective. The one real lesson from DAK is that all that park did really was redistribute the guests they already had. Thus, a fifth park is not cost effective in any shape or form.

The only park that would make sense financially maybe is a high end boutique park like Discovery Island

I would really doubt we will ever see a major fifth gate as it makes zero business sense

 

[MJMcBride]

Why do you say that? Believe me, I am truly asking, I have never heard a word about a 5th park but I also didn't even know about AK until I was there in Jan 1998 and they were announcing the opening in April 1998!

simple. Its not cost effective. The one real lesson from DAK is that all that park did really was redistribute the guests they already had. Thus, a fifth park is not cost effective in any shape or form.

The only park that would make sense financially maybe is a high end boutique park like Sea World's Discovery Park

I would really doubt we will ever see a major fifth gate as it makes zero business sense

 

[keegro94]

they should build another one over here at disneyland lol. you guys already have 4 theme park and 2 waterparks. we dont have any water parks and we only have 2 theme parks

 

[Rudy6]

What about something like Tokyo's Disneysea?

 

[mitros]

There will never be a 5th major theme park at WDW

...............never say never.

 

[Charlesaway]

simple. Its not cost effective. The one real lesson from DAK is that all that park did really was redistribute the guests they already had. Thus, a fifth park is not cost effective in any shape or form.

I've often seen the 'fact' of guest redistribution versus actual growth in attendance thrown around, and I just want to take a few moments to point out that it is likely incorrect.

In 1988, the estimated combined attendance of both MK and EPCOT was 25.1 million.

In 1992, the three parks at WDW took in estimated attendance of:
Magic Kingdom: 12 million
EPCOT: 10 million
Disney-MGM Studios: 8 million

Although this represents a combined drop between MK and EPCOT of 3 million people, it represents a total increase in attendance of 5 million visitors over the previous 1988 attendance record.

By 2007, attendance was estimated to have reached:
Magic Kingdom: 17 million
Epcot: 10.9 million
DHS: 9.51 million
Animal Kingdom: 9.49 million

Given these industry estimates, attendance at MK between 1988 and 2008 could have grown anywhere between 5 and 40%, depending in separate EPCOT performance in the mid 1980s. EPCOT attendance has steadily grown at about 1% a year over the past 10 years.

Although there has been evidence in the past, and statements to the effect that Disney was not necessarily happy with initial performance or ticket draw at the gates, it is plainly obvious that the two most recent parks draw significant visitor totals, ranking as the 7th and 8th most popular amusement parks worldwide, respectively. And all the while, still allowing an overall increase in attendance at MK and EPCOT.

Total attendance at all gates in 2007 was in excess of 47 million, nearly DOUBLE attendance recorded in 1988, and 35% higher than 1992.

That being said, the economic considerations regarding an additional gate take into consideration countless additional details beyond simply total attendance. Infrastructure issues, permitting, design and imagineering, securing investment partners, ability to merchandise, etc are all significant factors in any expansion plans.

Cheers!

sources:
http://www.ibiblio.org/darlene/coaster/FAQ/FAQ.attendance
http://74.125.45.104/search?q=cache...attendance+estimates&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
http://www.connectingindustry.com/downloads/pwteaerasupp.pdf

 

[MJMcBride]

but there is no evidence that a 5th gate would increase the number of visitors in any real way

 

[Charlesaway]

but there is no evidence that a 5th gate would increase the number of visitors in any real way

There is no guarantee a 5th gate would increase total attendance in any real way. However, there is plenty of evidence, as noted above, that would suggest a 5th gate would increase total attendance.

Again, I point out that DHS and AK are responsible for the majority of the increased attendance numbers over the past 20 years. Even if you were to argue that those attendance numbers are accounted for primarily by people already visiting the first two parks (likely true), it takes time and money to visit the other parks. People visiting multiple different gates need to spend more time either in Orlando or on site, will spend more money on food, and likely more money on goods.

Disney's Theme parks are profitable. As long as all gates at WDW continue to draw significant attendance and, therefore, profits, the possibility of a 5th gate remains open.

Regards,

 

[MJMcBride]

but unlike when there was only 2 parks, 4 parks gobbles up the average week vacation

 

[Condorman]

Ultimately, there will be a 5th gate. It may not happen until 2021 but it will happen. They have the land, they have the talent, they just don't have the numbers, which is an equation that will solve itself come the next generation. As populations grow both domestic and international, and visitor numbers to Orlando increase, corporate strategy dictates that a new facility must be added to accommodate the logical increase in park attendance. Before that happens, I believe we will see the current parks maxxed out (i.e. 1/3 of AK is still undeveloped), old aspects shut down and razed (i.e. Wonders of Life), unfinished areas completed (i.e. Pop! Legendary Years), etc.

I'd like to think some of the rumors about Fantasyland are true, and that for the 40th anniversary they will do even more incredible things. However, WDW is extraordinarily popular, even in the slow times. There is little motivation for them to spend more when guests are already satisfied with what they have. 2021 is the 50th anniversary of WDW. While I don't see them opening a new park to celebrate the opening of the first park, a new park will be built.

 

[MJMcBride]

Ultimately, there will be a 5th gate. It may not happen until 2021 but it will happen.

I doubt there will ever be any financial gain from a 5th park. Not while the vast majority of people tour WDW for one week periods

They have the land,

OK

they have the talent,

maybe

they just don't have the numbers,

and they never will, not when virtually all tourists go there for a week's period. 4 parks is more than enough for that time frame. Especially if they do add to DAK and DHS and throw in a upscale boutique park. The cost of a trip to WDW virtually limits people to 1 week trips. Heck they are reluctant to add lands to DAK at this point as they don't think its worth the expense

 

[Condorman]

and they never will, not when virtually all tourists go there for a week's period. 4 parks is more than enough for that time frame. Especially if they do add to DAK and DHS and throw in a upscale boutique park. The cost of a trip to WDW virtually limits people to 1 week trips. Heck they are reluctant to add lands to DAK at this point as they don't think its worth the expense

I agree on the point of saturation. Most visitors don't go to WDW long enough to enjoy what currently exists, let alone another park. The term cannibalism is overused on this subject but it is appropriate. At this point in time, 2008, it would backfire on Disney to expand any further. However, you can't say what the numbers will be like two decades from now. If somebody had asked Walt Disney in 1955 at the opening of DL about the possibility of parks in Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Florida, he probably would have winced and said it's highly unlikely. Even though said ideas came to pass over the next 50 years, most came about within 20 years of each other, i.e. DHS, AK, DLP, TDS, HKDL, etc. Disney isn't run by visionaries anymore, just bean counters. If they see an opening, they will exploit it. That the opportunity presents itself is inevitable. It just won't be happening anytime soon.

 

[figureskater]

I don't want to be the buzz kill...but instead of building more parks and resorts...why don't they spruce up what we already have. From pictures i've seen of other disney parks around the world, WDW looks much less manicured.

 

[eddieras]

I don't want to be the buzz kill...but instead of building more parks and resorts...why don't they spruce up what we already have. From pictures i've seen of other disney parks around the world, WDW looks much less manicured.

wow! i'd love to see those parks then!

 

[figureskater]

wow! i'd love to see those parks then!

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