2042 vs 2057: What's it really worth?

[bookwormde]

Deb & Bill

OT wow I want to know who your resale broker is in case I ever want to sell. I just bought 150 OKW for $68 with almost all points.

bookwormde

 

[lowepg]

OK.... Im waiting till July 1st in case of an annoucement- then diving in...

Still on waiting list for phase1 AK- but leaning towards resale now.

 

[mrdiscranky]

We are already seeing resales for the extended OKW at around $95/pt. Thats almost a $20 increase from some 2042 contracts. I feel this will be extended to the other 2042 resorts, and I will extend. Resale value is a key indicator here.

I think those 2057 OKW contracts are a total fluke of supply and demand. Right now, they are incredible rare in the resale market. A better place to look is SSR. Is has 12 more years than the somewhat-similar OKW, and sells for about $5 more on the resale market. Down the road when we see more and more extended resales, that gap's going to shrink considerably. Then it will turn and go back up again as we get closer to 2042.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I've just sold my OKW at $85 a point for 2042.

Very good price there Ms. Deb. The OKW resales for 2057 are few right now, this is true. With the advent of the opening of BLT at a really high ppp, I do think OKW will be able to command the elevated resale prices. Also, rumor has it that the points per night are going to be reallocated for BLT. One more big advantage for OKW. Just a side note here, but the resales for BWV/BC will also increase as BLT's eventual resales will raise the floor.

 

[jamstew]

I'll be dead. I"m not worrying about it.

As will I, which is exactly why I bought the two places I want to stay as long as I'm able (VWL and BCV).

 

[Deb & Bill]

As will I, which is exactly why I bought the two places I want to stay as long as I'm able (VWL and BCV).

Really changes your perspective on those extensions, doesn't it??

 

[bookswin]

I'm a scientist, so I calculate out things like this all the time.

If you do it as an amortization over 34 vs 46 years (actually it was last year, so 35 vs 47), assuming a market rate of interest on a mortgage (say, 6%) and a realistic value for the stream of points ($10-$10.50 each as of today), and all that sort of thing, you should find as I did that the net present value (that is "What's it worth right now?") of the extra vacations you will get between 2042 and 2054 (I did it for SSR vs OKW as I recall) is on the order of 10-12% of the principal.

That is, an SSR contract at $88 today is a roughly equivalent "deal" with an OKW contract at $80 today, assuming you regard them as resorts of comparable value when you stay there.

My calculation took into account the current difference in annual maintenance fees.

I had thought the value as of today for those extra years would be higher than 10-12%, but that's how the math came out.

Of course, I had about 20 assumptions in there, so you'll have to adjust it to fit your needs and preferences.

 

[lugnut33]

What will 100 points at AKL get you?