2042 Prediction(s)

[CLE2WDW]

It has been the elephant in the room for a while and now that we are under 20 years until the 2042s expire it’s time to discuss what DVC will do.

I have a few predictions with explanations to go with them… but would also love to hear what you all think.

1) beginning in 2032 DVC will begin to offer buybacks/extensions to the existing contract holders. The buybacks will allow DVC to begin selling new contracts with updated expiration dates (perhaps 2072?) and will also give existing contract holders the ability to get first crack at the extended contracts.

2) a spinoff? The existing DVC model has a few major flaws so perhaps the 2042s gives DVC the opportunity to create a new DVC 2.0 that fix a few of the flaws by changing the language of the contracts. These new contracts have enhanced benefits for staying at your home resort and will also change the point chart for functionality purposes.

3) knock down/new resort? OKW and BWV may be in need of a re-theme. While I personally don’t feel this way perhaps DVC will want to start from scratch with a couple new resorts. Obviously the fly in the ointment is the 2057s at OKW so maybe the resort would need to close in stages?

4) give the resorts back to Disney’s retail level. Let’s face it Disney could make a lot more money by selling the resorts at the retail level. I feel like this could be most logical given that Disney has been selling a small handful of DVC rooms at the retail level for years.

 

[Patsaizan]

Any resort they want to keep will go full trust at expiration time. That is my prediction.

 

[CastAStone]

I don’t think Disney agrees with 4. Over a 50 year time horizon, sure, but these executives have to make their bonuses NOW, and that means accelerating 50 years of revenue at a discount aka DVC.

I’ve expressed my POV on this a few times; I think BW/BWV is a tear down because the site is poorly planned and inefficiently used; the whole Boardwalk concept has never worked as intended, but the industry has learned a ton about what makes outdoor shopping destinations work since 1996 and it can be done right. Just not as currently constructed.

Plus no more endless hallways. But that land is just too valuable to not stack a DVC on top of whatever goes on the first floor. Plus they can add indoor accessible dining for rainy days (e.g. every day in Orlando between April and November)

I think VB and HHI get sold.

I think OKW is functionally a 2057 resort; I do think they’ll make one more pass at getting owners to extend.

I think BRV could be resold as is and probably will be.

I think BCV is hardest to predict; I might rip up the entire interior of Beach Club the hotel and then sell the whole thing including the existing BCV as DVC, and use YC as the hotel side. But anything from a refurb-resell to a total tear down wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I wish BWV was re-built and re-themed to be the Riviera. I think it makes a lot more sense to have a Riviera themed resort actually on a useable waterfront.

 

[Patsaizan]

I don’t think Disney agrees with 4. Over a 50 year time horizon, sure, but these executives have to make their bonuses NOW, and that means accelerating 50 years of revenue at a discount aka DVC.

I’ve expressed my POV on this a few times; I think BW/BWV is a tear down because the site is poorly planned and inefficiently used; the whole Boardwalk concept has never worked as intended, but the industry has learned a ton about what makes outdoor shopping destinations work since 1996 and it can be done right. Just not as currently constructed.

Plus no more endless hallways. But that land is just too valuable to not stack a DVC on top of whatever goes on the first floor. Plus they can add indoor accessible dining for rainy days (e.g. every day in Orlando between April and November)

I think VB and HHI get sold.

I think OKW is functionally a 2057 resort; I do think they’ll make one more pass at getting owners to extend.

I think BRV could be resold as is and probably will be.

I think BCV is hardest to predict; I might rip up the entire interior of Beach Club the hotel and then sell the whole thing including the existing BCV as DVC, and use YC as the hotel side. But anything from a refurb-resell to a total tear down wouldn’t surprise me.

Totally agree that VB and HHI will get sold.

 

[Pluto777]

I think OKW is in a special category due to the 2042/2057 de-boggle, but I doubt owners get a windfall at places like BCV where the point charts are overly generous to owners. That said, I would love to buy into BCV myself, if not for the fact that I worry about how buying at today's inflated prices will allow me to recoup if I want to sell in the next few years as we approach 2031..

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I think OKW is in a special category due to the 2042/2057 de-boggle, but I doubt owners get a windfall at places like BCV where the point charts are overly generous to owners. That said, I would love to buy into BCV myself, if not for the fact that I worry about how buying at today's inflated prices will allow me to recoup if I want to sell in the next few years as we approach 2031..

Yea, if your main concern about a BCV purchase is the ability to resell in 7-8 years, then it's probably not a good idea. But if you look to purchase to enjoy the resort and location for 17-18 years, it's probably worth it! I agree with you - when 2042 rolls around, things will change a lot for the BC Villas..... They're too popular for Disney to not capitalize on the building and the location.

 

[StarCruzer]

I think VB and HHI get sold.

I hope these close out of the DVC family. They only exist as DVC properties because they were places Michael Eisner liked to go on vacation.

WDW resorts are harder to book with all of the non-WDW points floating around. Just my opinion, though.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I hope these close out of the DVC family. They only exist as DVC properties because they were places Michael Eisner liked to go on vacation.

WDW resorts are harder to book with all of the non-WDW points floating around. Just my opinion, though.

Unsure on the Eisner influence but 100% agree that VB and HHI “cheap” points really throw off the DVC 7 month booking windows. Granted, the dues are significantly higher but there’s people who justify the high dues for the fact they can buy triple or even quadruple the number of points versus another on-site resort.

Sell the resorts to Marriott and be done with it.

 

[hhisc16]

Totally agree that VB and HHI will get sold.

I think HHI will be pulled into the dvc trust.

As a small resort (100 rooms roughly) that stays 100% occupied year round after covid, it offers an east coast beach option not in fl.

Also, disney has a connection with hhi and sea pines from multiple angles.

 

[hhisc16]

I hope these close out of the DVC family. They only exist as DVC properties because they were places Michael Eisner liked to go on vacation.

WDW resorts are harder to book with all of the non-WDW points floating around. Just my opinion, though.

That is true.

Disney leadership likes visiting HHI and has connections there. Still today.

 

[hhisc16]

Unsure on the Eisner influence but 100% agree that VB and HHI “cheap” points really throw off the DVC 7 month booking windows. Granted, the dues are significantly higher but there’s people who justify the high dues for the fact they can buy triple or even quadruple the number of points versus another on-site resort.

Sell the resorts to Marriott and be done with it.

In 2042, disney could sell hhi and vb to anybody if wanted. I think dvc will bring both into the trust.

Vb is still valuable to disney for being near the port.

Hhi is still valuable for the reasons I listed above.

 

[DanCali]

Not quite related to what DVC will do but related to '42 predictions... I think resale prices of the remaining O14 resorts will skyrocket vs others and there will be a clear distinction in resale prices between the 1-resort resale contracts and the 9-resort resale contracts (AKV, AUL, BLT, CCV, VGC, VGF, PVB, SSR, OKWe). I can easily see potential resale buyers paying a 50%+ premium (over similar 1-resort contracts) for contracts that can potentially access multiple resorts, including in CA and HI, for a period of 15+ years.

 

[Brian Noble]

1: I doubt it. The legal mechanism to do an extension is messy, and the OKW experience demonstrates it does not work well. If this happens, it will require some new (and dubious) legal framework.

2: I can imagine something with preferential booking windows; several other developers do this. See for example Wyndham's Presidential Reserve. https://clubwyndham.wyndhamdestinations.com/us/en/club-benefits/presidential-reserve

3: Could be. A lot depends on how they were built, and whether they were built with a longer expected service life or not.

4: No chance. Timeshares are stupid-profitable, transfer risk from the company to the buyer, and capital efficient. There is a reason that Disney has built next to no new hotel rooms since 9/11 and along the way converted hotel rooms to DVC inventory. If memory serves, the only new rooms are AoA and Gran Destino. AoA was started pre-9/11, and so it made sense to finish it. Gran Destino is in service to the convention business. On the other hand, the Disney Institute, the North Garden Wing at CR, half of WL, the top two floors of AKL, a cluster of buildings at CBR, a cluster of buildings at Poly, and a building at GF have all been moved from the hotel side to the timeshare side.

 

[Brian Noble]

Oh, and I forgot the treehouses, the Ft. Wildnerness cabins, and a tower at the Disneyland hotel.

 

[Sandisw]

I do not expect any of the resorts to be given an extension and that all new products will be in a trust model, like CFW...with others already in there that will be created between now and 2042.

Currrent owners won't be given any special advantage over any other DVC owners. In terms of the actual buildings? I think we could see them close down the Boardwalk Inn a few years before expiration, convert that into DVC, so that it is ready to sell and be used as soon as BWV expires.....then they can tear down/renovate...I think it will be a renovate at this point....BWV and add as they are complete.

At the same time, they will work on BCV to get that up and running as fast as possible...maybe a tower? VB and HH will be sold off and BRV will simply added to the trust and sold as part of a different vacation plan.

 

[CastAStone]

WDW resorts are harder to book with all of the non-WDW points floating around

I agree. I think 2042 will be a net positive to the ability to switch resorts at 7 months. I know others vehemently disagree.

 

[Pinnochio]

a cluster of buildings at CBR, a cluster of buildings at Poly, and a building at GF have all been moved from the hotel side to the timeshare side.

did not know CBR did this...

 

[CarolynFH]

did not know CBR did this...

Yes, they tore down an entire village at CBR and built RIV on that land. If you can find a pre-2017 (? - not sure when demo started) map of CBR and compare it to now, you'll see the difference.

 

[maui22]

I don’t see any extensions being offered for BCV and BWV. Disney knows the BWV/BCV areas are worthy of higher point charts than Riviera. Tear down and rebuild with modern amenities, use modern point charts.

If they sell new for these two resorts, there will be 20+ years of pent up demand as many owners today refuse to buy properties with so few years remaining.