2012 DDP vs OOP

[sharonabe]

People are really going to need to do their homework for dining. I'm not even sure those with kids will be saving that much money.

We are now a family of 2 adults/2 Disney adults. Our line-up for TS is:
Mama Melrose F! Pkg $33 + tax x 4 = $140.58
Ohana Dinner $33 + tax x 4 = $140.58
CP Breakfast $23 + tax x 4 = $97.98
Biergarten Lunch $26 + tax x 4 = $110.76
Via Napoli (share app made for two, 1/2 meter pizza, zeppole) $79.87
LTT Lunch (one app, one dessert, 4 entrees, 4 drinks) $71.37

Total for 6 TS = $641.14
6 QS @ $45 ea = $270
4 $4 snacks/6 days = $96

Total $977.14

FIVE (5) night 2012 DDP = $1040.00
SIX (6) night 2012 DDP = $1248.00

I decided to see what the difference would be with 2 adults/2 kids prices.

MM $95.85
Ohana $104.37
CP $76.68
Bier $85.20
Via Napoli (downsized pizza to large) $68.16
LTT (one app, two adult meals, two kids meals, one dessert, two drinks) $64.35

Total for 6 TS $494.61
6 QS @ $30 ea = $180.00
4 $4 snack/day = $96.00

Total $770.61

5-night DDP $670 (would be a savings except I have 1 extra TS/CS/Snack)
6-night DDP $804

I realize my two non-buffet meals do not include all the items you get on the DDP, but I do have an app at LTT in place of the dessert we didn't order. At Via Napoli, we are missing drinks and desserts, but we would rather have that yummy app for two to share.

Once we get 2012 buffet and F! pkg rates, we may still see the savings, but without much of a price increase, it's going to take a lot more time to plan before you buy.

 

[Aliceacc]

I think we'll go OOP next year.

We'll load the $1500 we would have spent for 7 nights onto a Disney Gift Card, and use that for meals-- so we'll still have it paid for up front. I'm thinking there will be money left at the end.

 

[DaniB]

Sharonabe, how did you come up with $45 each person for QS meals?

We're 2 adults, 1 disney adult, 1 child. I priced out each CS place we're most likely to eat at on our trip, but nothing came close to that amount each for the adults. Our most expensive CS meal came to $52 (pre-tax) for an entree, drink & dessert each for all 4 of us. I can see CS meals maybe being up to $25/$30 each in some places, but not sure how they can be $45?

 

[sharonabe]

Sharonabe, how did you come up with $45 each person for QS meals?

We're 2 adults, 1 disney adult, 1 child. I priced out each CS place we're most likely to eat at on our trip, but nothing came close to that amount each for the adults. Our most expensive CS meal came to $52 (pre-tax) for an entree, drink & dessert each for all 4 of us. I can see CS meals maybe being up to $25/$30 each in some places, but not sure how they can be $45?

$45 is an average for all 4 of us to eat one QS meal. In reality, that's a high average for us; most of ours come in around $40, but I was trying to be generous.

 

[DaniB]

Ohhh, duh! I was reading that as $45 per PERSON. I was wondering where the heck you were eating. Thanks Sharonabe.

 

[havoc315]

$45 is an average for all 4 of us to eat one QS meal. In reality, that's a high average for us; most of ours come in around $40, but I was trying to be generous.

To get value from the qsdp or ddp, you are paying about $15 per Qs credit. So $60 for a family of 4 "adults."

If you use your cs at breakfast, you will not come close to the $15.
If you use cs at the resort (which tends to be cheaper than the parks), then you will probably not hit the $15.
If you skip the dessert, you probably won't hit the $15.

Cs entrees in the park are mostly in the $8-$10 range. So even with beverages, I agree that a family of 4 can do quite well for about $45.

 

[sydneysmom]

Just one more thing to consider though....if you're pricing it out using current menus, there's also the possibility that the menu prices will increase January 1. If the menu prices go up, it may work out to be even or better to be on the dining plan.....

 

[havoc315]

Just one more thing to consider though....if you're pricing it out using current menus, there's also the possibility that the menu prices will increase January 1. If the menu prices go up, it may work out to be even or better to be on the dining plan.....

I don't believe there is a set time of year for Disney restaurants to increase prices. Historically, while some items have seen significant price increases over the last few years, other items are still the same price as they were 3 years ago.
Anything is possible, but I doubt we are looking at price increases bigger than 3-4%.

 

[angelmav]

Just one more thing to consider though....if you're pricing it out using current menus, there's also the possibility that the menu prices will increase January 1. If the menu prices go up, it may work out to be even or better to be on the dining plan.....

Havoc showed on another thread that the rate of inflation for menu prices is ALOT less than what they have bumped the plans up for. Only 1-2% on most items per year with many things seeing no change at all. Keep in mind, they can only go so far before the cash paying guest refuses to take out their wallets.

ETA: And who should show up just before me to point this out...Havoc to the rescue!

 

[kdawg8762]

Havoc showed on another thread that the rate of inflation for menu prices is ALOT less than what they have bumped the plans up for. Only 1-2% on most items per year with many things seeing no change at all. Keep in mind, they can only go so far before the cash paying guest refuses to take out their wallets.

ETA: And who should show up just before me to point this out...Havoc to the rescue!

And honestly, maybe Havoc should stay out of business topics like inflation. For over 8 months, anyone who pays attention to markets and such has known that food costs are rising, and somewhat significantly so. I would expect menu prices, especially at Signature places to rise above the rate of inflation. While fuel is expected to go down short term, long term it will rise with long term demand = higher food prices. Food prices in general are also rising and finally, businesses are expected (rightfully so under this administration) that taxes are going to rise, so they plan for that as well. Add in the fact that cities and counties are doing poorly and you can possibly expect sales taxes to rise as well.

 

[angelmav]

And honestly, maybe Havoc should stay out of business topics like inflation. For over 8 months, anyone who pays attention to markets and such has known that food costs are rising, and somewhat significantly so. I would expect menu prices, especially at Signature places to rise above the rate of inflation. While fuel is expected to go down short term, long term it will rise with long term demand = higher food prices. Food prices in general are also rising and finally, businesses are expected (rightfully so under this administration) that taxes are going to rise, so they plan for that as well. Add in the fact that cities and counties are doing poorly and you can possibly expect sales taxes to rise as well.

Disney prices are so far above the norm that you can take inflation out of the equation as a reason for them setting their price point. They charge what they do because they can. Period.

 

[kdawg8762]

Completely not true that Disney is out of the market when it comes to pricing. You have to look at what market they are in. There is a reason why amusement parks, tourist "traps" (hate to call WDW that, but its what it falls under realistically), and stadiums are all high priced. You are, to some extent, trapped there. They all charge higher prices, WDW isn't the lone standout. The prices for those places is generally much higher, but the profit isn't. Places like that have an absolute ton of overhead, so the actual margin they make falls more in line with most places in the same line of work outside of that market.

 

[angelmav]

Completely not true that Disney is out of the market when it comes to pricing. You have to look at what market they are in. There is a reason why amusement parks, tourist "traps" (hate to call WDW that, but its what it falls under realistically), and stadiums are all high priced. You are, to some extent, trapped there. They all charge higher prices, WDW isn't the lone standout. The prices for those places is generally much higher, but the profit isn't. Places like that have an absolute ton of overhead, so the actual margin they make falls more in line with most places in the same line of work outside of that market.

The comment was in reference to hedging against inflationary food prices which have gone up in the WDW compound by 1-3% each year during a period where the Dining plan has seen more like a 60% increase both in cost and loss of value over that same span. To conclude that none of this matters because they have a captive audience is besides the point. That audience can and will go offsite if they continue down this path. Part of the genius of the plans was to create a captive audience. Disney is not the only game in town nor is staying on site the only way to do so. Most places that charge such rates (six flaggs, ballpark etc) are not run as inclusive resorts with the intent to keep you there over multiple days.

 

[sharonabe]

To get value from the qsdp or ddp, you are paying about $15 per Qs credit. So $60 for a family of 4 "adults."

If you use your cs at breakfast, you will not come close to the $15.
If you use cs at the resort (which tends to be cheaper than the parks), then you will probably not hit the $15.
If you skip the dessert, you probably won't hit the $15.

Cs entrees in the park are mostly in the $8-$10 range. So even with beverages, I agree that a family of 4 can do quite well for about $45.

Exactly. That's why you have to do some homework. In our family, two of us never drink sodas and three of us are not big dessert eaters. With our TS selections, we still have dessert once a day.

But, let's put that $60/day into the equation.

The new total is $1097. So, we're paying $60 more than the 5-night fee for 6 days worth of meals/snacks. We're still $150 less than the 6-night.

I expect prices will go up, but it's still going to have to be a HUGE jump for me to justify the DDP.

AND to put one more spin on this, my 4 Disney Adult plan is ONLY $137 more than what it would cost us to buy the QSDP.

 

[soontobewed07]

I agree no DDP for us next March I will pay OOP and save on a Gift card or even eat of site. We will do a few Character meals but that will be it. Every year it seems to get worse so this will be our last year using it and we are using QSDP.

 

[havoc315]

And honestly, maybe Havoc should stay out of business topics like inflation. For over 8 months, anyone who pays attention to markets and such has known that food costs are rising, and somewhat significantly so. I would expect menu prices, especially at Signature places to rise above the rate of inflation. While fuel is expected to go down short term, long term it will rise with long term demand = higher food prices. Food prices in general are also rising and finally, businesses are expected (rightfully so under this administration) that taxes are going to rise, so they plan for that as well. Add in the fact that cities and counties are doing poorly and you can possibly expect sales taxes to rise as well.

You are quite rude. And perhaps, you need some basic refreshers on economics and business.
Food inflation has persisted for the last couple of years -- Yet, Disney has not dramatically increased menu prices. Unlike park tickets and resort prices, Disney restaurants can adjust their prices any day of the week. So there haven't been massive increases in the last 8 months, why not??
If you are correct, then they should raise their prices dramatically TODAY. Why wait till next year?

But as long as we are projecting the future....
Not an easy thing. We know what the inflation rates have been nationally, in the past.
Now, as any economist can tell you -- There are current pressure that could be deflationary over the coming months. The Fed recently ended the QE2 -- second round of quantitative easing. Some of the goals of the QE2 was to cause inflation (yes, intentionally caused inflation), which was caused by the other goal -- easing of monetary policy. ie, flooding the market with extra $$$ through artificially low interest rates, which generates inflation.
Now, with QE2 ending, one would expect less inflation -- or even possibly, deflation.
Furthermore, the current debt crisis in Washington may lead to higher interest rates/higher taxes/reduced government spending -- All of which are deflationary pressures.

Finally, inflation in food prices is largely driven by energy costs. Which are slowly retreating off their most recent highs.

Thus, one would expect significant easing of inflation over the coming months.

Your logic is --- There was bad inflation the last few years. But now that inflation is easing, NOW your crystal ball says that Disney will raise their prices?

None of us have a crystal ball. What we do have, is history, data.
We know that EVERY YEAR, for the last 5 years.. Disney raises the price of the dining plan (or reduces the value) by 10% or more. We know that over that same time period, restaurant prices at Disney have only gone up 2-4% per year. There is absolutely no reason to suspect that this is going to change in the next 365 days.
If anything, the opposite is true -- There is reason to believe that this trend will be continued. (Though at some point, they won't be able to raise the price of the DDP any higher).

 

[kdawg8762]

And I find you to basically be ignorant on economics. Have you owned a restaurant? Have you owned a resort? Are you an economist? Disney, with its owned eateries, doesn't have to raise costs just based on inflation as food has been rising for quite some time, but now is dramatically rising. Inflation could be part of it, but a big part of it is government subsidies and where they go and where they do not go. Also, Disney can delay a rise in prices at PC1 and raise in PC2 if needed, and so on and so forth. Energy is only expected to make a short term (read months, not years) drop. It is dropping now because we are using the energy reserves....at some point, they will climb again and probably sometime sooner rather than later.

 

[Diegosmom]

Just wanted to point out that the current price of Mama Melrose Fantasmic is $35.99. So $3 more then what you figured=$12x1.065=$12.78 more...not a huge amount but thought I would let you know.

We are going in Jan and seriously reconsidering the dining plan.

1 big reason is I would love to snack my way around the world showcase in Epcot and that just wont happen if we are on dining...especially since all the TS that I want is at Epcot...

 

[havoc315]

And I find you to basically be ignorant on economics. Have you owned a restaurant? Have you owned a resort? Are you an economist?

No, don't own a restaurant. Nope, never owns a resort. yes, I do have a degree in economics.. you?

 

[sharonabe]

Okay, you three (havoc, kdawg, and angel) start your own thread about inflation, crystal balls, and what Disney may or may not do.

My point was to show that it will take more than just deciding where you want to eat and which park to go to on a given day.

We can only do our "homework" with the data provided. Right now, that data does not include a price increase on any food, but I do think that an almost $300 savings takes in to account any price increase that may be forthcoming.