[1st time buyer] How many points do I really need? 2023 point cost irregularity?

[Dadealus]

So we have decided to purchase at the VGF Direct.

We want the perks, We really want to be on the MonoLoop, and RIV's resale restrictions are a NO GO. So that leaves VGF

Our primary goal would be to stay in a one bedroom for a week during the kids spring break week. which this year it was 4/2 - 4/9 and next year is 4/1 - 4/8

However when we look at DVC's point cost calculator these two weeks break down vastly different in cost.


2022 4/2 - 4/9 :
Standard 340 points
Lake 407 points

2023 4/1 - 4/8:
Standard 470 points
Lake 558 points

We have been looking at DVC for a while now with that 340/407point target in mind. but now when we check our week is 470/558 points. Is this just a one time fluke? does it flux wildly like this? I know I should purchase a little extra points than needed. something like 30-40 more points than we need. So I was thinking somewhere around 375-400, but now I'm not sure.

 

[pianomanzano]

Easter is the highest point season (along with Christmas) and falls on April 9 in 2023. Be prepared for those fluctuations. Otherwise, there's other point balancing they do across seasons and room types, but won't be the same magnitude as what you're seeing there.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Are you sure those points are right? The point calculator I use shows 450 and 535 points for April 1-8 2023. But in any case like @pianomanzano said, it's the holiday
that's making next year so high.

The next week is MUCH cheaper. 378 and 451

Point charts do get rebalanced overall each year, but not big moves like that.

 

[Dadealus]

Easter is the highest point season (along with Christmas) and falls on April 9 in 2023. Be prepared for those fluctuations. Otherwise, there's other point balancing they do across seasons and room types, but won't be the same magnitude as what you're seeing there.

Are you sure those points are right? The point calculator I use shows 450 and 535 points for April 1-8 2023. But in any case like @pianomanzano said, it's the holiday that's making next year so high.

Point charts do get rebalanced overall each year, but not big moves like that.

So would you say 375 or 400 points would be enough for what we are trying to do? Easter weeks excluded?

 

[WDWfantasy]

The good news is if you buy VGF direct now, assuming a February use year which is what they are currently pushing, you could bank the 375-400 points from 2022 ahead to 2023. That would give you plenty of points to work with for next year and going forward for quite awhile if you continue the trend of banking points not needed for your April vacations.

 

[BamaGuy44]

So would you say 375 or 400 points would be enough for what we are trying to do? Easter weeks excluded?

for 7 days in April I'd count on 350-375 for a Standard 1BR. 400 would give you some wiggle room for price adjustments. But you'd be priced out of a Lake view, if that matters. This will be lowest price you'll ever see for VGF direct (most likely), so a few extra now will seem smart vs what they will cost 2 or 3 years from now

 

[pianomanzano]

Should be good for what you want. Just so you're aware there's only 47 1BRs at Grand Floridian and I'm sure the competition for those and the 2BRs will be fierce as more people buy the new VGF points since they've only added on studios. Easter and spring break are already popular times to go.

Also, since you're looking at buying in more than the minimum, you can buy those points in separate contracts. I'd recommend breaking 400 pts out into 2 or even 3 contracts. Lot of benefits to splitting up contracts (smaller pt contracts are easier to sell and command higher resale prices if you ever need to sell or want to downsize or trade them in for newer properties). Not sure how many kids you have, but it also makes it easier to pass along to them (and have them be grandfathered into blue card perks/benefits).

 

[Dadealus]

Should be good for what you want. Just so you're aware there's only 47 1BRs at Grand Floridian and I'm sure the competition for those and the 2BRs will be fierce as more people buy the new VGF points since they've only added on studios. Easter and spring break are already popular times to go.

Also, since you're looking at buying in more than the minimum, you can buy those points in separate contracts. I'd recommend breaking 400 pts out into 2 or even 3 contracts. Lot of benefits to splitting up contracts (smaller pt contracts are easier to sell and command higher resale prices if you ever need to sell or want to downsize or trade them in for newer properties). Not sure how many kids you have, but it also makes it easier to pass along to them (and have them be grandfathered into blue card perks/benefits).

Thanks for this call out. really good points on resale or possible hand down to our children (we have 2).

We ended up going with two 225 point contracts at the VGF today. They were able to provide full incentives to both contracts based on a 450 point based contract. we have our points loaded today. WoooHooo

The good news is if you buy VGF direct now, assuming a February use year which is what they are currently pushing, you could bank the 375-400 points from 2022 ahead to 2023. That would give you plenty of points to work with for next year and going forward for quite awhile if you continue the trend of banking points not needed for your April vacations.

Good points here. I will plan on banking most of them over and over. This will help cover the spread on points/upgrades to the 2bedroom.