pilferk
Jambo Wildbunch Gang
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2005
- Messages
- 6,881
Pilfrek -
jsut FYI: I hope my comments don't come off as argumentative, I'm just in debate mode. I actually think we agree on the main thing, we are just emphasizing different "what if's". I think the most important point is that there is really no way to know exactly what will happen, re: resale values in the future. My point is that, due to this risk, there is little financial reason to pay $15 now in hopes of getting higher resale equity later. $25 per point now is DEFINATELY a waste, would you agree with that?![]()
I would agree that $25 is probably not a good bet, UNLESS you plan to use every single years worth of points through 2057. But strictly from a resale perspective, I can't see how you'd recoup that $$....UNLESS Disney makes startling, drastic changes to it's ROFR numbers (which is always possible). Certainly, to me, not worth the risk.
I think $15, if you're looking at selling within the next 5 to 7 years, is too risky. You MIGHT get your money back, you'd PROBABLY get more than your money + ROI - the cost of your "vacations accomodations" back, but NONE of it is a certainty.
I think $15 is even money...maybe a bit better...strictly based on inflation and how the DVC market has performed in the past, in recouping your money + ROI (depending on the ROI, of course....I'm assuming something conservative like a 7% yield) over 10 years or more. Still not the odds I'd want going in, though, but worthy of consideration ESPECIALLY if I plan to use the points. Because using the points, if you can sell at "cost + ROI", means your vacation accomodations were basically free and you've "broken even" on opportunity cost.
ALL of the above is MHO and simply based on speculation. The problem here is simply this: There's just not enough concrete information to make ANYBODY feel good about ANY decision they make. The possible outcomes are just too varied to inspire any confidence, and the historical data is non-existent to support EITHER conclusion. Which is why we're having discussions like this.....it's about all anyone is going to get.
The ONE positive in all this is that the OTHER 2042 resorts, assuming they get the same option, will at least have OKW owners as the "guinea pigs". Not much consolation to current OKW owners, though...and it leaves them in a tough spot.