100,000 DVC members = no availability : when?

[Glorydaz]

just curious as to what the masses think:

according to my guide, there are currently about 100,000 DVC members and from the looks, more joining every week... so, I'm wondering, with 5 on-site properties (not including HH or VB), will it reach a point that a member could not get a room at any of the resorts? I'm talking about high season, like Christmas ...looking at the quantity of rooms available in just the DVC properties. for example -VWL only has 136 units, correct? if you do the math, Disney would not be able to accomodate all the members.
for instance, a member just stated they're on the waitlist for Oct - for their home resort and still could not get a room 91/2 months out! needless to say, they are less than happy..
so what would Disney do? do you think that they will keep adding on new locations (AKL, CR) to alleviate that possibility? then again on the other hand, they will have tons of people waiting to buy! ( including me)

so what's the solution? or do I perceive a problem that won't come to be?

anyone care to chime in?

 

[Pa@okw95]

just curious as to what the masses think:

according to my guide, there are currently about 100,000 DVC members and from the looks, more joining every week... so, I'm wondering, with 5 on-site properties (not including HH or VB), will it reach a point that a member could not get a room at any of the resorts? I'm talking about high season, like Christmas ...looking at the quantity of rooms available in just the DVC properties. for example -VWL only has 136 units, correct? if you do the math, Disney would not be able to accomodate all the members.
for instance, a member just stated they're on the waitlist for Oct - for their home resort and still could not get a room 91/2 months out! needless to say, they are less than happy..
so what would Disney do? do you think that they will keep adding on new locations (AKL, CR) to alleviate that possibility? then again on the other hand, they will have tons of people waiting to buy! ( including me)

so what's the solution? or do I perceive a problem that won't come to be?

anyone care to chime in?

That is why it is important to buy where you want to stay.

 

[mydogdrew]

DVC can't sell more memberships than unit capacity would dictate. However, there has always been a possibility that you will get locked out at peak times. There have been many cases where all DVC room were booked for a peak night but it is not the result of number of DVC members, only the demand for certain periods. However, you will be much more likely to be booked at SSR for short notice bookings for peak times in the future.

 

[bobbiwoz]

I wonder where the numbers come from, we're 2 people with 1 contract but 6 add ons and 3 home resorts. Oh well. We don't own a special unit for a week in a particular resort, we all bought because we like DVC flexibility. Well, that also means that there may not be room for us even at our home resort at a particular time. It's something to think about, but on the other hand, the Christmas or other holiday points are enough to make us NOT want to go then, it's the low points in December before the actual holiday that makes that season so attractive.

I have had a very small problem, I could not get a ressie in a SV studio for the 22nd of October at the Boardwalk at 10 1/2 months out, the next night was available, and I did get the waitlist for the 22nd about a month after I tried to book it. So, it does look as if those who cannot book in that 11th month window may be locked out of something they want and that time is not far away. I had a SV 2 bedroom and another SV studio booked at 10 3/4 months out for the same nights, we're having a GG for my DAunt's 80th birthday and those 2 rooms were not waitlisted.

If the waitlist hadn't come through, I would have waited until just before the 7 month window opened and changed that reservation to preferred view, it would have made me a little annoyed, but not terribly. I am not as enamoured of the BWV as I am of the SV point price. If it weren't for the different point costs, we would have bought all of our on site points at VWL, my true love

Bobbi

 

[Chuck S]

There has always been a problem for some seasons, simply because of demand, not overselling. Originally, there was sort of a lottery system for Christmas/New Years week. You had to put your name on a list, and if you were called two years in a row, and declined the ressie both years, you were removed from the list. Anyway, they deemed there was enough availability that they no longer do that, bu they have the right to re-instate it if the need arises.

 

[byoung]

I bought BWV because I want to stay there during F&W. I also like it there the most.

 

[Beca]

for instance, a member just stated they're on the waitlist for Oct - for their home resort and still could not get a room 91/2 months out! needless to say, they are less than happy..

Ummm....I think that was me. Actually, the time I cannot get a room at my home resort (BCV) is Dec 7th. And, the problem with that is that I did not book a very popular time right at the 11 month mark. I really hope that some BCV owners will "switch" to another resort at the 7 month mark, so I can get that night. If not, I will be trying another resort (but, I think VWL, BCV and BWV will all probably be full that night....dh does not want to stay at OKW or SSR). Does it bother me that I cannot get in...sure. But, that is what happens in ANY timeshare where weeks are not "fixed". However, my experiences are what scares me when posters who are looking at SSR for the 12 extra years, but don't really want to stay there are encouraged to buy SSR anyway. I cannot imagine telling anyone who expresses that they are not "nuts" about the resort they are thinking of buying to "buy there and not worry about getting into another resort...it'll be no problem".

I think with the two biggest DVC properties NOT being attached to a park, or deluxe hotel, and with EP being a likely resort in the future, the majority of rooms in DVC will NOT be the "deluxe hotel right next to a park" thing. With OKW having 500+ rooms, and SSR having 850...if EP is added with the same characteristics as OKW and SSR....getting into one of the "hotel-style" resorts could become much more difficult.

Owning at BCV means that I realize that to guarantee getting into my home resort at ANY time means that I have to book very early (usually at the 11 month window). BCV owners do not enjoy the "flexibility" of making plans at a later date, and still enjoy their own resort. People who own at SSR, and prefer SSR are really the LUCKIEST of DVC owners....they get 12 extra years in their contract, and will rarely be disappointed by not being able to get their resort. BCV, VWL, and to some extent BWV owners do not share the same luxury....and, I anticipate booking issues will only increase in the future.

For us, DVC is the vacation we plan FAR in advance to take. Some people post on these boards that they can get BCV on 2-3 month notice. That has NEVER been my experience....I am the person that cannot get BCV 9 1/2 months out. I am not sure why that is.



Beca

 

[DebbieB]

It should not have an affect between the 11 and 7 month mark since DVC resort expansion does not increase the number of points available at your home resort.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Well, if all 100,000 Members wanted a villa for the same night, there would be a problem.
Fortunately, and by design, the demand is spread out over the year by adjusting point requirements for different months. If one month started to get over popular, DVC could raise the required points accordingly in order to reduce the demand.

MG

 

[Alexander]

A previous post (bobbiwoz) got me to thinking. Are there truly 100,000 members or are there 100,000 contracts sold? We own two, and there are many who own more. Is that the 100,000 number.

--OR--

Could 100,000 members mean every person who holds a blue membership card? In my family, there are two of us who are technically members, but we wouldn't be taking up two rooms at the same time.

Does anyone know the meaning of 100,000 members?

 

[CPTJAK]

Ummm....I think that was me. Actually, the time I cannot get a room at my home resort (BCV) is Dec 7th. And, the problem with that is that I did not book a very popular time right at the 11 month mark. I really hope that some BCV owners will "switch" to another resort at the 7 month mark, so I can get that night. If not, I will be trying another resort (but, I think VWL, BCV and BWV will all probably be full that night....dh does not want to stay at OKW or SSR). Does it bother me that I cannot get in...sure. But, that is what happens in ANY timeshare where weeks are not "fixed". However, my experiences are what scares me when posters who are looking at SSR for the 12 extra years, but don't really want to stay there are encouraged to buy SSR anyway. I cannot imagine telling anyone who expresses that they are not "nuts" about the resort they are thinking of buying to "buy there and not worry about getting into another resort...it'll be no problem".

I think with the two biggest DVC properties NOT being attached to a park, or deluxe hotel, and with EP being a likely resort in the future, the majority of rooms in DVC will NOT be the "deluxe hotel right next to a park" thing. With OKW having 500+ rooms, and SSR having 850...if EP is added with the same characteristics as OKW and SSR....getting into one of the "hotel-style" resorts could become much more difficult.

Owning at BCV means that I realize that to guarantee getting into my home resort at ANY time means that I have to book very early (usually at the 11 month window). BCV owners do not enjoy the "flexibility" of making plans at a later date, and still enjoy their own resort. People who own at SSR, and prefer SSR are really the LUCKIEST of DVC owners....they get 12 extra years in their contract, and will rarely be disappointed by not being able to get their resort. BCV, VWL, and to some extent BWV owners do not share the same luxury....and, I anticipate booking issues will only increase in the future.

For us, DVC is the vacation we plan FAR in advance to take. Some people post on these boards that they can get BCV on 2-3 month notice. That has NEVER been my experience....I am the person that cannot get BCV 9 1/2 months out. I am not sure why that is.



Beca

If you own at BCV at get the 7 to 11 month window there will be no change to availability at BCV as a result of other resorts, they can not book BCV like you can?

 

[Glorydaz]

A previous post (bobbiwoz) got me to thinking. Are there truly 100,000 members or are there 100,000 contracts sold? We own two, and there are many who own more. Is that the 100,000 number.

--OR--

Could 100,000 members mean every person who holds a blue membership card? In my family, there are two of us who are technically members, but we wouldn't be taking up two rooms at the same time.

Does anyone know the meaning of 100,000 members?

mmmm, that is an interesting point. I presented my guide with my original scenario and he told me they only sell to 98% of each resorts capacity. but he did acknowledge that this could very well be problematic in the future...I have realized though that much of the property that Mr Disney bought has not been utilized yet which leaves much to the imagination, don't you think?!

what lies in the future of WDW? almost anything they want! and DVC is probably a success beyond their wildest dreams...

 

[Rozzie]

Call me lucky, I guess. I added on 4 days to our BCV 3 day trip within 24 hours of leaving. A studio in Feb, maybe isn't high demand.

Beca--I like how you described SSR owners who love their resort the luckiest. I feel that way. I hope that the SSR owners who don't just "love" their resort will give it another chance. It is scary that so many people are signing up to "get in" and thinking they will have their pick of the bunch. I think there will be some disappointment in their future.....but not in mine!
SSR lovers unite!!

To the OP: very intresting thought though. It would be a scary day not being able to get into your home resort at 11 months.

 

[LIFERBABE]

Beca--I like how you described SSR owners who love their resort the luckiest. I feel that way. I hope that the SSR owners who don't just "love" their resort will give it another chance. It is scary that so many people are signing up to "get in" and thinking they will have their pick of the bunch. I think there will be some disappointment in their future.....but not in mine!
SSR lovers unite!!

I was thrilled that our family loved SSR so much. Beca is right, I can plan later, add days, etc and SSR will allow those that want to stay there alot of flexibility that the Buy where you want to stay crowd will not have.

I bought where I want to stay, BCV BWV OKW and SSR! LOL! But I have found that being an owner does not guarantee you a ressie at your home resort. Especially if you are wishy washy! So to me, buying where you want to stay is an expensive way to hear no! You cant blame lack of availability at 8-11 months on SSR owners. They are not even in the picture yet and still many owners are finding themselves on the waitlist.

Plus when the CR is built and subsequent resorts and they are a part of DVC II, they will leave VWL and BCV in the dust. And I own there! Not only are people purchasing SSR, they are purchasing the new family of resorts that will follow SSR just like BWV VWL and BCV followed OKW. That's when the value of owning DVC II will really become apparent.

I feel for the newbies that are bombarded with BWYWTS. All it guarantees is that you will be on the phone to MS at 9am EST booking day by day! Miss a day and you will be on the waitlist with the rest of us! LOL!

Buy because you love the concept of DVC, buy because all the resorts are beautiful and being at any of them is better than being anywhere else. Buy because you love Disney. If you buy because you want to stay at BCV and only BCV (0r any ONE DVC resort), you will be disappointed.

 

[Beca]

If you own at BCV at get the 7 to 11 month window there will be no change to availability at BCV as a result of other resorts, they can not book BCV like you can?

Right...I understand that. When I said that BCV owners did not have the flexibility of booking at a later date, and still enjoying their home resort....I meant "later" to mean 5-6 months out.

I know that Dec is a busy time, and that adding a night on, even at the 9 1/2 month window is "iffy". But, my post was not actually addressing that. It was addressing the fact that, at my home resort, MANY people will call "day-by-day" at the 7 month window to get on waitlists. After the 7 month mark, there is not much chance (at least by my personal experience...I know the experiences of others differs, but I cannot depend on that based on what I have learned first hand) of getting a room at my home resort. Owning at such a popular resort has wonderful advantages, but also some downfalls...I know that it will be very difficult for my family to plan a "last minute" trip (even if "last minute" is defined as 5-6 months out), and still get to go "home". Chances are, we will be staying at a non-home resort. That is the reality of what we have come to know thru owning at BCV. We did own other resorts before BCV (BWV, VWL and OKW), and I never had problems getting rooms at those resorts after the 7 month window opened. It was partially due to the fact that only once in three trips could we secure a BCV ressie after the 7 month window (and that was calling day-by-day at the 7 month window....we missed out one one day because we could not call MS until the afternoon, and by then...all rooms were gone. The waitlist did come thru for that day), that we decided that we really needed to own there if we wanted a chance of staying there on a regular basis. On the other two trips, our waitlist for BCV never came thru.

This is why BCV owners can get a little "grumpy" when we read posts by new members (I read one just yesterday) who say they purchased SSR to get in the system, but they really want BCV. Is it their right? Sure. But as an owner at a resort that is really popular, it is just another reminder of the restrictions that we deal with, if we want to stay at our resort. Do I "dislike" SSR owners...absolutely not!! And, I don't blame them in any way. I do, however, blame DVC for selling something that, in my personal experience is going to be VERY hard to deliver (i.e. the flexibility to stay at any resort.). I feel that the information on this board about the difficulty of booking BCV as a non-owner has led MANY people to 1) look for a resale of BCV instead of going thru DVC, and 2) sell their contracts at other places to buy BCV (I have received pm's from others who have done this as well). The resale market is usually found AFTER one finds DVC. So, the buyers on the resale market are people who either 1) want a bargain, or 2) want a particular resort. I think a lot of the bargain people go for OKW, VB or HH, but I think people who pay more than what DVC is selling for (up to $100 per point), are doing so because they are willing to pay more for the resort they want to stay at. This is a new "wrinkle" in the DVC plan. With F&F, members could get SSR for $82 per point...no closing costs, 12 more years, and prorated dues. On TTS, due to market demand, people are paying up to $100 plus closing costs on BCV and VWL contracts that are often stripped. It's pretty insane!! And yet, you have to ask yourself...WHY would they do this? Because they want to own, and have the assurance of actually staying at that resort. They are nervous about getting into that resort once "open season" begins. So, I think what we will see (at least over the next few years) is a lot of "new" members of the smaller, sold-out resorts definitely booking "home". I think this is what happened with me not being able to add-on a day at 9 1/2 months. I actually added on a day last year the day BEFORE the 7 month window opened. Even the CM at MS said that BCV and VWL availability seemed to be going a LOT more quickly this year. Maybe because the economy is picking up in places . I don't know. Or maybe...it's just a "fluke" that I cannot get Dec. 7th. However, when I checked, the CM said Dec 4-6 was also sold out, so something is definitely different this year, even from last.

My point in my previous post was not to complain that I could not get my room at 9 1/2 months (really, I am not as mad about this, as I am totally surprised), but to express how "early" BCV owners are booking for December. Last year, I got a night 7 months out...this year, nights are selling out by 9 1/2 months. Are there nights still available in different rooms "sizes"...sure, but based on the info I know after speaking with MS....availability is much less....and, that is just by BCV owners!! Either I was VERY lucky last year, or something is different this year. I know others will disagree, but being an official, card-carrying "buy where you want to stay" member, I tend to think things may be "tightening-up" a bit.

JMHO,



Beca

 

[Beca]

Plus when the CR is built and subsequent resorts and they are a part of DVC II, they will leave VWL and BCV in the dust. And I own there!

That is SOO funny!! I just had a conversation with my guide last week ( I was pressing him on how long my add-on was going to take...poor guy). We were discussing the "Contemporary rumor." He said, "Well, if it does happen, it'll definitely be a SUPER hot property...people have wanted a monorail resort for as long as DVC has been around." I paused for a second, and asked, "How hot do you think it'll be?" He said, "Really hot, why?". I said, "Hmmmm....hot enough that you think some BCV owners might try to dump their contracts to buy there? Do you think I could get a good bargain on another BCV contract if that happens?" He started laughing (he TOTALLY knows my addiction to that place), and said, "You are awful!!"

The Contemporary (and AKL) seem like really nice ideas, but I would STILL want my BCV!!!! I have definite "attachment issues" to that place...my dh calls it my "BCV disorder"...it's the kind that breaks his wallet (addonitis is not covered by our insurance ).



Beca

 

[rinkwide]

Buy because you love the concept of DVC, buy because all the resorts are beautiful and being at any of them is better than being anywhere else. Buy because you love Disney. If you buy because you want to stay at BCV and only BCV (0r any ONE DVC resort), you will be disappointed.

Boy, you lost me on that one. Who is it that's going to be disappointed?

 

[keys2kingdom]

That is SOO funny!! I just had a conversation with my guide last week ( I was pressing him on how long my add-on was going to take...poor guy). We were discussing the "Contemporary rumor." He said, "Well, if it does happen, it'll definitely be a SUPER hot property...people have wanted a monorail resort for as long as DVC has been around." I paused for a second, and asked, "How hot do you think it'll be?" He said, "Really hot, why?". I said, "Hmmmm....hot enough that you think some BCV owners might try to dump their contracts to buy there? Do you think I could get a good bargain on another BCV contract if that happens?" He started laughing (he TOTALLY knows my addiction to that place), and said, "You are awful!!"

The Contemporary (and AKL) seem like really nice ideas, but I would STILL want my BCV!!!! I have definite "attachment issues" to that place...my dh calls it my "BCV disorder"...it's the kind that breaks his wallet (addonitis is not covered by our insurance ).



Beca

Funny Beca! I'd be hoping for the exact same thing, I've already waitlisted my first add-on. Let the insanity begin!!

 

[Beca]

Funny Beca! I'd be hoping for the exact same thing, I've already waitlisted my first add-on. Let the insanity begin!!

I just saw that!!! You are SOO funny!! I think you may have it as bad as me!!! It certainly did not take you long to get the disease!!! Let's just hope it doesn't take either of us as long as it took senecabeach...she waited over a year!!!



Beca

 

[Caskbill]

Obviously it doesn't matter how many new resorts are built or how many members there are. The 11-month Home Resort booking window does not change and the number of owners at a home resort does not change. So those owners will not see any more competition for rooms during peak times than they see right now. The total number of members is irrelevant.

For example, to keep it simple, let's say there's a resort with 100 units, and each owner bought enough points for 1 week. That would mean there are 5200 home resort owners. Thus only those 5200 owners can book at the 8-11 month window. That is a constant number, regardless of how many other owners there are at other resorts.

However at 7-months, of the total 100,000 members, the other 94,800 members can now book that resort. And in 10 years if membership grows to 150,000, then at 8-11 months it's still only the same 5200 members that can book their resort. But at 7-months, the remaining 144,800 members can try for that resort.

The big change as membership increases, will be the demand at the 7-month window for non-home resorts. That's where total membership will have a big impact. And that's why owning at a home resort becomes more and more important.

Booking your home resort during the 8-11 window will become more and more important, especially for those who own at the smaller, or more popular, resorts. If a member waits until 7-months or less to book their home resort, they may find themselves locked out of getting what they want.