“Official” 2025 Hurricane/TD/Weather thread for the 2025 hurricane season

[OhDannyBoy]

Good for him.

It seems to me that most TV weather forecasters are more intent on gaining audience. So they tout the "latest" updates that are no different than what they said 4 hours ago. They also warn of the severest conditions that might happen a week out - so stay tuned.

As someone who has lived in the "cone of death" my entire life (just north of Miami) it's sad how true this can be.

You can only take so much worst case scenario and preparedness tips before going insane. I usually turn the TV off if we are in the crosshairs of a storm. But every storm they act like it is Armageddon. Yeah it can be dangerous, but getting everyone scared to death does nothing good and causes panic at gas stations (I keep 5 5 gallons gas cans full every hurricane season for this reason) home depot, costco, etc... I've seen every gas station in a 30 mile radius run out of gas and have hours long lines for storms that didn't even make land fall in our area, or were glorified thunder storms. I blame the news people for this.

Personally, I find going to the national Hurricane center my best bet.

 

[Disnsyncey]

For day to day monitoring of the tropics, I use ventusky.com to look for trouble. You can select the criteria you want to view by (precipitation, wind speed, wind guests, etc.) and I usually select wind gusts, since that makes any potential hurricane really pop on the screen. There are several different computer models available to view, with some going out as far as two weeks. There are no forecasts, no hyped up predictions, just the simple running of computer models at various intervals. I check it when I first wake up, around lunch time, and before bed, every day during hurricane season.

Once a hurricane has formed I add the National Hurricane Center site to get the predictions and cones. If one is coming through Florida, I usually use AccuWeather because it lets me track down to a local neighborhood level as the storm passes through.

I don’t rely as much on regular weather channels or local news for the hurricane itself. I do use local news for information relating to prep and clean up.

oooooo that's a neat page!

 

[takemetomanos]

Looks like Erin mostly likely to be a nuisance to the fish and perhaps our friends in Bermuda….

 

[hardcorestitch]

Another great resource for hurricane information is myfoxhurricane.com. It's ran by the folks at FOX 13 in Tampa, and it has lots of useful maps and information.

 

[lovethattink]

Here’s the latest update on Hurricane Erin from Denis Phillips, “You’re Disney plans are safe.”

Hurricane Erin Update:

“1. Erin is the season's 1st hurricane. Winds are 75 mph.

2. Erin finally disposed of her dusty, disorganized, center exposed self and has become a new storm. Watch out anyone in her path!

3. Fortunately, there won't be anyone. Ships will steer clear. Flights will steer clear. They know better

4. Erin will rapidly intensity over the next 3 days and could even become a Cat 4 hurricane. Again, landfall is NOT expected. She could get uncomfortably close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but I think more low end TS winds.

5. As for the US, landfall is not expected. Heavy surf and MAYBE a bit of squally weather for the Outer Banks of NC.

6. As a matter of fact, Florida will probably see DRIER air as a result of Erin staying far offshore. I realize that may disappoint the doomsday predictors, but there you have it. Bermuda, however, will be a close call...as it often is with these kind of tracks.

7. Rule #7. Your Disney plans are safe. Cruise next week? Surfers? Be safe out there.”

 

[hardcorestitch]

Latest track, courtesy of FOX 13 Tampa. Good news for WDW folks…. Bad news for Castaway Cay and Lookout Cay. While it may not immediately impact either, the side impacts like storm surge, just as strong winds, and rip currents may cause you to be rerouted. Check your DCL Navigator when onboard for updates if you aren’t cancelling.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Cruise next week? Surfers?

Yeah, my Disney cruise plans don't look great. Sailing on the Wish the 18 - 22 to the Bahamas...

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Bad news for Castaway Cay and Lookout Cay.

My Castaway Cay day is Thursday. Thoughts on likelihood of missing it?

 

[Dug720]

My Castaway Cay day is Thursday. Thoughts on likelihood of missing it?

No way to know. Even if Erin is far out of the way - which she should be - there could be currents either related or unrelated that prevent docking. It can happen even when there are no storms in the vicinity.

Just know that they WANT to be able to dock there. They don't WANT to cancel it. So if they do it is for your safety. And the cruise activities team will pivot to have a lot more stuff happening on board.

 

[lovethattink]

Yeah, my Disney cruise plans don't look great. Sailing on the Wish the 18 - 22 to the Bahamas...

My Castaway Cay day is Thursday. Thoughts on likelihood of missing it?

Years ago, I was on a couple Disney Cruises during a hurricane. We ended up on one of them skipping Castaway Cay. The other one, we ended up at Castaway Cay twice and skipped another port of call.
There might have been a third hurricane cruise, because I remember ending up in Puerto Rico which wasn’t on the itinerary, to avoid the hurricane.

One of them, we had 20 foot swells one day. Disney wouldn’t allow anyone to walk on the exterior. Doors were all closed. In our cabin the closet doors kept opening and closing until we got creative.

 

[hardcorestitch]

Tortola and St Thomas ports of call have been cancelled on Disney Treasure due to Erin. The ship will be heading to Cozumel, George Town, and Falmouth. Castaway Cay is still a go.

 

[Dug720]

Tortola and St Thomas ports of call have been cancelled on Disney Treasure due to Erin. The ship will be heading to Cozumel, George Town, and Falmouth. Castaway Cay is still a go.

It's not so much they were cancelled - the cruise was changed from an Eastern to a Western.

Castaway is almost always a day-of call as they have to see what the winds and currents are doing.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

What day is the Treasure supposed to do Castaway Cay? Trying to figure out if if’s the same day my Wish sailing is, which is Thursday.

 

[Dug720]

What day is the Treasure supposed to do Castaway Cay? Trying to figure out if if’s the same day my Wish sailing is, which is Thursday.

Friday.

They do not have the capacity to put 2 ships at Castaway.