The 60 day reservation for FP+ is the big problem. If it winds up like the dining reservation where I will need to be up at 12AM to reserve a TSMM FP 60 days before my trip it will be a complete failure in my eyes. Will they eventually require a CC and charge you $10 for every ride you don't show up for?
No, of course not.
The reason for the $10 meal charge is warranted by the fact that restaurants lose money every time a table sits empty. And there's guest dissatisfaction when ADRs are not available.
Restaurants can only host a couple hundred parties per meal, per day. Every empty table eats into their margins.
When FP no-shows occur, it simply creates capacity for other guests...which most would view as a positive outcome.
My theory is that, at some point in the future, the standby lines as we know them will no longer exist for the biggest attractions. There will be a certain number of spots for the ride allocated to FP+ and, once the standby line reaches a certain point, people will present their bands at the attraction entrance to get a time at which they should return to the standby line.
The standby line would be kept long enough to provide a continuous supply of guests for boarding, but instead of someone physically waiting in line for 60-90 minutes or more, they will only be in the standby line for 20-30 minutes and will be free to browse shops, grab a snack, or enjoy a minor attraction in the area while they wait for their return time. For example, instead of standing in a 90 minute line for Test Track, someone could spend an hour or so browsing through Mouse Gear or Innoventions, or getting something to eat, before getting into the line.
This is similar to the test done at RNRC a couple of years ago (when standby guests were given a boarding group number and allowed to wait in an area behind the attraction) and what is now being done at Dumbo. It would help achieve Disney's goal of having people free to spend money instead of being held captive in line.
In essence, for major attractions, you'd be replacing the old FP/standby system with a reserved FP/standby FP system. It would be like a restaurant giving guests a beeper to notify them when a table is ready for them.
Yeah, but have you ever been to a restaurant with a beeper system when they are running 45 minutes behind on seatings? Usually there are people stacked miserably in the entrance way.
The Disney parks would face a similar problem. And that's why I don't think this is likely to happen. One of the familiar refrains you'll hear from frequent Disney guests is "it just keeps getting busier and busier!" In reality, park attendance hasn't increased all that much in recent years.
But what has apparently changed is the use of FastPass. Even before FP+, Disney kept pushing the limits of the legacy FP system, making more and more ride times available to guests. People like FP so this could be viewed as a good thing. But the net result is more and more people clogging the public walkways of each park.
If you shut down the Standby lines at Space Mountain, Splash, BTMR, Peter Pan and others, suddenly you've got 5000 more people filling the park walkways at all times...even on a slow day. On a busy day, it could be 10,000 guests. That just isn't workable.
It's also one of the reasons Disney invested in interactive enhancements to many attraction queues. Attractions like Haunted Mansion, BTMR, Test Track, Soarin, Space Mtn, Pooh and others added elements to help keep guests engaged during those waits.
One of the original concepts behind FP+ was that guests probably would utilizing the Standby queues more (given the limit of 3 FPs per day). However the lines would move faster (fewer FP "line cutters") and the wait would be more entertaining.
Conceptually it may seem like a great idea to do something other than just stand in a line. But realistically, most of the Disney parks NEED people in those lines. The queues serve a very important role in crowd control.