Touring plans crowd tracker jump - Nov/Dec 2016

[lynch34]

I take these worth a grain of salt. Last time I went in September, they did an adjustment up and we freaked. Parks were empty.

 

[DisneyFive]

Early August just went up too, if that was even possible.

I now have a predicted 10 at MK one of our days. We've always visited in late Sept, so we're used to low crowds. (2's, 3's on average) Early August will be a new adventure for us. (8's, 9's on average)

Interesting to note though, last year one of our MK days felt pretty dang busy, and when we got home I looked at the historical crowd level and that day ended up being a 9. You know what though? It wasn't that bad. If we can handle that, I think this upcoming week will be just fine.

Hope you have a great trip.

Dan

 

[Andrea Wright]

Our dates are Oct 1-5, and we saw massive jumps AND changes to which park would be the best to visit each day. Our MK days went from a level 2 to a 5, and our AK and HS days switched so that they are better (relatively) on the opposite day. Now I'm trying to decide if I should try to switch the days we plan to visit each park, which would require changing ADRs! Grr. Not what I wanted to do a few days before my Fastpass sign up date, although I'm glad it didn't happen after.

 

[DisneyFive]

I'm at work and haven't been able to check my e-mail yet, but is it for all of September? We are going in late September where the crowds were suppose to be slightly higher than early to mid, but now I'm worried how much higher...are we looking at summer levels?? Heck, now it seems like July is the best time to go crowd wise given all the reports from this past week!!

We've gone late September the 4 of the last 5 years, and the crowds have gotten a little higher since 2010 (when the economy still really stunk), but not by much. You'll have some of the lowest crowds of the year. No worries.

Dan

 

[DisneyFive]

Our dates are Oct 1-5, and we saw massive jumps AND changes to which park would be the best to visit each day. Our MK days went from a level 2 to a 5, and our AK and HS days switched so that they are better (relatively) on the opposite day. Now I'm trying to decide if I should try to switch the days we plan to visit each park, which would require changing ADRs! Grr. Not what I wanted to do a few days before my Fastpass sign up date, although I'm glad it didn't happen after.

In our experience, anything below a 5 feels the same regardless of rating. At 5, you might notice more crowds, maybe not. At 6 and up, you will notice.

Personally, if all your days are 5 and below, just go with the schedule that works best for you, and don't base it on predicted crowd level.

Dan

 

[glvsav37]

Early August just went up too, if that was even possible.

I now have a predicted 10 at MK one of our days. We've always visited in late Sept, so we're used to low crowds. (2's, 3's on average) Early August will be a new adventure for us. (8's, 9's on average)

Interesting to note though, last year one of our MK days felt pretty dang busy, and when we got home I looked at the historical crowd level and that day ended up being a 9. You know what though? It wasn't that bad. If we can handle that, I think this upcoming week will be just fine.

Hope you have a great trip.

Dan

same boat...got the email this morning and a few parks jumped from 8 to 10's YIKES!!!!! told my wife that we will be doing a lot of early AMs and nights with a lot of napping and pool in between.

edit to add: 5's???? I would love a 5 day...I can't wait till my wife retires so we can finally go at a time where we can actually see the pavement. lol

 

[Andrea Wright]

In our experience, anything below a 5 feels the same regardless of rating. At 5, you might notice more crowds, maybe not. At 6 and up, you will notice.

Personally, if all your days are 5 and below, just go with the schedule that works best for you, and don't base it on predicted crowd level.

Dan

Good to know. One of our days was a 3 and is now predicted to be an 8, so I think it's probably worth switching that one up.

 

[gioiamama]

Good to know. One of our days was a 3 and is now predicted to be an 8, so I think it's probably worth switching that one up.

Hoping for this too! Received the email this morning for our trip over Labor Day, 9/3-9/10 and my heart almost dropped!
It will be what it will be! Counting on rope drops and fp!

 

[MichiganScott]

I'm just not buying the reality that we'll be seeing 7, 8's and 9's in early December.

 

[ConnecticutNonna]

I had a feeling TP's original crowd calendar was off when I had great difficulty with ADRs...
Went same time period last year and had a little better luck and more choices, so it was my belief the FD really became super popular this year and a lot of people booked.
But c'est la vie! Disney is still Disney and I'll still be on vacation, NOT WORKING!

 

[dreiwhit]

I'm just not buying the reality that we'll be seeing 7, 8's and 9's in early December.

You're not the only one - I'm not buying into it either. 7-9 is like Christmas break level crowds the week AFTER Thanksgiving when no one is taking any breaks.

It just doesn't make sense that crowds will be that high then. For the life of me, I can't come up with any logical reason as to why crowds would jump up that much.

I could see free dining bumping up the crowd levels, but not that much!?!

For you folks that are going to WDW on the "new" crowd calendar soon, can you tell us when you get back what you think about the predictions?

 

[wmjeffer]

We're going in mid-November and went during the same time period last year - almost the same exact dates. TP was WAY off for our trip last year (crowds were much worse than predicted). I re-checked some of our dates with their new predictions and honestly, some of the numbers just don't make sense. On one of our dates (a Thursday), it says that an MK party night will be more crowded than an EMH Epcot during Food & Wine. Also, on one Saturday, the most recommended park is the one with EMH...

Could be true, but I'm not buying it! That's why I like to use Josh and Kenny. Sometimes computers just can't replace common sense! Plus I'm kind of hoping that we'll see lower crowds this year since we missed the free dining dates, unlike last year.

We'll plan as best we can, rope drop, and hope for the best

 

[tsme]

I'm at work and haven't been able to check my e-mail yet, but is it for all of September? We are going in late September where the crowds were suppose to be slightly higher than early to mid, but now I'm worried how much higher...are we looking at summer levels?? Heck, now it seems like July is the best time to go crowd wise given all the reports from this past week!!

5-6 seems to be the highest

If it is in your budget then maybe upgrade to park hoppers or change FP or maybe even ADR's if possible? **kinda new here and it is my first trip to DW this year in 15 years so I may be offering bad advice

We already have hoppers. I can't change my ADRS or FPs. Because I doubt I'd be able to get the places & times I want at this point. But Thanks anyway. I'm not really that concerned. I find that even on low days, at Disney, you can end up at a section of a park that might seem like an 8 on a 3 day. And in other sections of the parks, an 8 day can seem like a 3 day. It's the ebb & flow of people traffic.

 

[ELSA711]

Not familiar with Thanksgiving week and not surprised at the 10s most days, my question is based on experience and history can I expect mostly 8am (even 7am) park openings that week or is that typically for Christmas only?

 

[MrsHull]

How did the crowds feel to you last year? Not too concerned about wait times, but the congestion in the parks is what gets to me the most! Going the week AFTER Thanksgiving this year.

The first part of the week felt slightly more crowded than I expected at the Magic Kingdom, but nothing too bad. Epcot felt absolutely empty, as did Animal Kingdom.

 

[SBWB48]

Pretty much that entire week went up. Only a few days are below a 4. They average a 5-7 for all parks during that time. Definitely not the 2-3 I was seeing before.

We've gone late September the 4 of the last 5 years, and the crowds have gotten a little higher since 2010 (when the economy still really stunk), but not by much. You'll have some of the lowest crowds of the year. No worries.

Dan

5-6 seems to be the highest



We already have hoppers. I can't change my ADRS or FPs. Because I doubt I'd be able to get the places & times I want at this point. But Thanks anyway. I'm not really that concerned. I find that even on low days, at Disney, you can end up at a section of a park that might seem like an 8 on a 3 day. And in other sections of the parks, an 8 day can seem like a 3 day. It's the ebb & flow of people traffic.

Kind of just coming to terms with whatever it may be and will just try to be smart about it since we can hop, if necessary. Tried to plan originally based more on common sense and using TP as a supplement, so bring on the crowds, I guess...

 

[disneymom0104]

I got the e-mail, too, and it does have me stressing a bit. I originally chose between an Epcot 3 and a HS 4- thought they wouldn't be much different so chose HS. (Easy said HS first and Epcot 2nd), now HS has jumped to a 7 and Epcot has stayed a 3. With the FP's made and the ADRs I will have to let it be, but in the same boat there is a day later in our week that looks like a better HS day- by a lot. But we will be at Epcot and too hard to let the FEA FP go to blindly hope there is availability at HS since the system won't even let me look at another parks FP availability since I have them in the first park. Oh well.

I just can't get over some of the extreme differences between the 2 sites, though. TP had AK listed as a 3 on Sept. 4, they have now adjusted that to a 9! But EasyWDW has AK as the most recommended park that day, where TP has the other 3 parks with lower than 9's. I know they are calculated in different ways- and truthfully I'm not worried about 5-10 minute differences in ride times, I am more interested in how crowded it will feel everywhere- walkways, restaurants, etc. Impossible to predict IMO. We have been Labor Day weekend and found it crowded, but found the week following to be very pleasant.

 

[SBWB48]

But we will be at Epcot and too hard to let the FEA FP go to blindly hope there is availability at HS since the system won't even let me look at another parks FP availability since I have them in the first park. Oh well.

There is a way to do this and @hiroMYhero has kindly posted this over in the FP section a few times already. Instead of trying to modify what you have, proceed as if you were going to make new FP reservations, ignore the warning message (I tried it myself, and it works) you receive since no original FPs booked will be canceled unless you opt to accept/confirm the new ones. You can view FP times in another park this way without cancelling

 

[hiroMYhero]

There is a way to do this and @hiroMYhero has kindly posted this over in the FP section a few times already. Instead of trying to modify what you have, proceed as if you were going to make new FP reservations, ignore the warning message (I tried it myself, and it works) you receive since no original FPs booked will be canceled unless you opt to accept/confirm the new ones. You can view FP times in another park this way without cancelling

Thanks for tagging me!

It's Post #770 in the FP FAQ thread as well as in some others.

 

[disneymom0104]

There is a way to do this and @hiroMYhero has kindly posted this over in the FP section a few times already. Instead of trying to modify what you have, proceed as if you were going to make new FP reservations, ignore the warning message (I tried it myself, and it works) you receive since no original FPs booked will be canceled unless you opt to accept/confirm the new ones. You can view FP times in another park this way without cancelling

Thank you- I admit to not being very proficient at the FP+ system, nor have I really searched the forums to see if it was something that could be done. When I saw I couldn't with the modify button on the app, I just assumed that I couldn't. Thank you for the heads up on that!