Touring plans crowd tracker jump - Nov/Dec 2016

[Nancyg56]

In all fairness wouldn't it be in TP best interest to push the levels up and be wrong then have them down and be wrong? Most people will be very happy with them being wrong when they said it was high. Its like a weather man predicting rain that never comes.

Not really. Wrong is wrong. If a site gives information that is wrong, even if it is for the better, how can you trust the information? Yes, you seemed to benefit fom the mistake,but you never look at the numbers in the same light again.

I'm just not buying the reality that we'll be seeing 7, 8's and 9's in early December.

I do. I was there last December and the MK is a madhouse on any day that does not host a party. I think it is the same in October now, at least in my experience, with Saturdays being the worst. You simply cannot move, it is shoulder to shoulder with your new best friends.

I got the email as well, and I'm not a happy camper. We are going the week of Dec. 5th, for my youngest grandson's bday. Every single day we are going to be there, the parks jumped substantially. We had a couple of days of 2 and 3 at MK and now are 7, 8, and 9's. I'm undecided as to how to proceed. I've trusted Touring Plans for well over a decade and have never had this happen before. I don't know what to think.

You need to adjust how you want to tour. If the numbers jumped, and I was expecting them to do so, you know that the peaks will not be empty. Get to the MK at least, early and use FP to your advantage. I would not get too upset, because in my opinion, the days of 2 and 3 have not really existed in years, so even though we see higher numbers in regards to crowds, they are still just numbers.

If you see a jump from a 3 to a 7 or 8, you know you need to adjust your strategy, and if it goes to a 9 for a pak you chose to visit that day, then you may want reconsider that park unless you go at RD.

 

[Jrits]

I'm getting nervous now, how is 11/4-11?

 

[Princesca]

I just got another email that mkavanaugh@samswope.com crowds dropped on one day from a 7 to a 2... *** is going on at TP.

 

[MichiganScott]

I do. I was there last December and the MK is a madhouse on any day that does not host a party. I think it is the same in October now, at least in my experience, with Saturdays being the worst. You simply cannot move, it is shoulder to shoulder with your new best friends.

Yeah, but you are talking about the last half of December right? I specifically wrote early December. Last year early December the MK was absolutely not "a madhouse on any day that does not host a party." After about the 18th or so absolutely yes. Before that? No.

 

[Mom2Stitch]

Speaking from last September's trip, it is good to have this information in hand before your trip. Yes it is too late to switch most things around, but I think being mentally prepared is a big part of dealing with increased crowds. Last year for our September trip I followed touring plans numbers which were between 2 and 4 for my whole trip, I was so excited to be going at a low crowd time. When we actually got there and it was easily double those numbers I was so disappointed. I expected one thing and got something different-bad different.
I knew that something was coming when MK hours on 9/3 changed to 8AM-1AM from the original 9AM-11PM. Crowds are coming and they are preparing.

My AK day jumped from a 3 to a 9--it's a holiday weekend and one of the last nights AK is going to be open until 11. I'm hoping that the late hours will help us, we will do RD, cut out for a break, and go back later in the evening.

 

[MichiganScott]

I think being mentally prepared is a big part of dealing with increased crowds

Wise words - expectations play the biggest part in whether you consider something to be "successfully enjoyable" or not. Plus, even though I don't agree with them, I'm fine with the new numbers, because again, reality will be reality no matter what text appears on any crowd calendars. If you think it's going to be crowded and it is, well, that's better than you thinking it won't be crowded and it turns out to be very crowded.

 

[Iowamomof4]

Wise words - expectations play the biggest part in whether you consider something to be "successfully enjoyable" or not. Plus, even though I don't agree with them, I'm fine with the new numbers, because again, reality will be reality no matter what text appears on any crowd calendars. If you think it's going to be crowded and it is, well, that's better than you thinking it won't be crowded and it turns out to be very crowded.

100% agree!

 

[SaintsManiac]

We are going next year for Thanksgiving week. I expect 10s every day, so maybe I will be surprised ha!

 

[pmaurer74]

week before Christmas they have at 10s, I am surprised at this. I have been that week before and it is not that bad.

 

[ELSA711]

We are going next year for Thanksgiving week. I expect 10s every day, so maybe I will be surprised ha!

We are going for the first time this year Thanksgiving week, I'm prepared for it to be a mad house.

I am most worried about leaving AK the one day for our Epcot dinner and not being able to get into Epcot if they close admittance.

 

[georgina]

We are going for the first time this year Thanksgiving week, I'm prepared for it to be a mad house.

I am most worried about leaving AK the one day for our Epcot dinner and not being able to get into Epcot if they close admittance.

I have looked at historical park closure lists before, and have never seen it happen at Epcot. I don't think any closings at Thanksgiving at any park were listed either.

 

[jpwest]

We are going for the first time this year Thanksgiving week, I'm prepared for it to be a mad house.

I am most worried about leaving AK the one day for our Epcot dinner and not being able to get into Epcot if they close admittance.

My wife and I were just talking about this. I would like to think they would let people in with a dinner reservation, right?

 

[gioiamama]

I'm curious what thoughts are when you look at other things like ADRs and fp availability (which I know is too far in advance). We're visiting over Labor Day this year and am pondering a 2017 holiday stay. I received the increase email yesterday from TP about crowd increases for our September trip.
We are traveling as a party of 10 which seems to alway require some tweaks to accommodate everyone. I've had great luck with both ADRs and fp for our group. This makes me think that crowds will still be low? Granted we haven't hit the 30 day mark yet for fp (next week) but are a lot of you able to adjust times etc for ADRs for your trips later this year? Very popular dining options are all available for our large party at most meal times (Ohana, Sanaa, crystal palace, California grill, yachtsman, chef mickeys, etc).

 

[anneboleyn]

I'm curious what thoughts are when you look at other things like ADRs and fp availability (which I know is too far in advance). We're visiting over Labor Day this year and am pondering a 2017 holiday stay. I received the increase email yesterday from TP about crowd increases for our September trip.
We are traveling as a party of 10 which seems to alway require some tweaks to accommodate everyone. I've had great luck with both ADRs and fp for our group. This makes me think that crowds will still be low? Granted we haven't hit the 30 day mark yet for fp (next week) but are a lot of you able to adjust times etc for ADRs for your trips later this year? Very popular dining options are all available for our large party at most meal times (Ohana, Sanaa, crystal palace, California grill, yachtsman, chef mickeys, etc).

I think early September is going to be pretty crazy.

 

[SweetJulia23]

I'm curious what thoughts are when you look at other things like ADRs and fp availability (which I know is too far in advance). We're visiting over Labor Day this year and am pondering a 2017 holiday stay. I received the increase email yesterday from TP about crowd increases for our September trip.
We are traveling as a party of 10 which seems to alway require some tweaks to accommodate everyone. I've had great luck with both ADRs and fp for our group. This makes me think that crowds will still be low? Granted we haven't hit the 30 day mark yet for fp (next week) but are a lot of you able to adjust times etc for ADRs for your trips later this year? Very popular dining options are all available for our large party at most meal times (Ohana, Sanaa, crystal palace, California grill, yachtsman, chef mickeys, etc).

I just did a quick check on your dates (assumed first week of Sept?) and there is still a lot of hotel availability that week including discounts. If they were near capacity they would probably get rid of the discounts and most of the hotels would be unavailable.

 

[SaintsManiac]

My wife and I were just talking about this. I would like to think they would let people in with a dinner reservation, right?

I've been wondering the same thing and hope to hear some reports for this year. The main thing about Thanksgiving is where to eat! Right now we think a resort is probably the best bet.

 

[wendow]

Speaking from last September's trip, it is good to have this information in hand before your trip. Yes it is too late to switch most things around, but I think being mentally prepared is a big part of dealing with increased crowds. Last year for our September trip I followed touring plans numbers which were between 2 and 4 for my whole trip, I was so excited to be going at a low crowd time. When we actually got there and it was easily double those numbers I was so disappointed. I expected one thing and got something different-bad different.
I knew that something was coming when MK hours on 9/3 changed to 8AM-1AM from the original 9AM-11PM. Crowds are coming and they are preparing.

My AK day jumped from a 3 to a 9--it's a holiday weekend and one of the last nights AK is going to be open until 11. I'm hoping that the late hours will help us, we will do RD, cut out for a break, and go back later in the evening.

I agree with you. We were there the week after LD last year and will be there again this year (but arriving prior to the holiday weekend and staying until Sat after). Anyways, crowds were so much higher than any of the crowd calendars predicted and was unlike any early Sept we had ever seen at WDW. This year I am ready and feel like I can handle those crowds better b/c I am expecting them. BTW, we will be at AK same day as you. I have never been to a park on a crowd level 9 day so I am somewhat stressed about that.

 

[wendow]

I'm curious what thoughts are when you look at other things like ADRs and fp availability (which I know is too far in advance). We're visiting over Labor Day this year and am pondering a 2017 holiday stay. I received the increase email yesterday from TP about crowd increases for our September trip.
We are traveling as a party of 10 which seems to alway require some tweaks to accommodate everyone. I've had great luck with both ADRs and fp for our group. This makes me think that crowds will still be low? Granted we haven't hit the 30 day mark yet for fp (next week) but are a lot of you able to adjust times etc for ADRs for your trips later this year? Very popular dining options are all available for our large party at most meal times (Ohana, Sanaa, crystal palace, California grill, yachtsman, chef mickeys, etc).

We're a party of 8 going early Sept. I checked last night and I can still adjust most of our FP's (not FEA though which is the main one I wanted to move) and some dining I can move but not all (I could get a different time but it's really early or really late so doesn't work for us).

 

[disneydreamer781]

Nooooo...I just saw a 9/10 for MK for a Monday the first week of December. These numbers are way more than what they have been reflecting. WTH! How can Sat 12/3 be less than Mon 12/5? I know non party nights may be higher but neither of these days are party nights. Are they guesstimating for extended hours perhaps? This wasn't even predicted for dates last June when most kids were already out of school. The first Monday in December MK predicted number is more than even New Year's Day which is 8/10. I'm finding it hard to believe that MK Christmas week numbers are even close to a weekday in early December. I'm so glad I purchased 2 AP this year for both me and my husband.

 

[Amanda Hall]

I knew this was going to happen. We went the week after Thanksgiving last year and the crowds were average but when I saw free dining would be available this year I knew crowds would be up. We booked for then anyways. I posted my concerns on several boards about the crowd levels being higher than predicted for last year and people seemed to think it was a fluke. Also, look at the actual crowds vs the predicted crowds for the full week before Thanksgiving last year. They were WAY off and I think MK was even a 10 one day when predicted much lower. I suspect these new predictions will be much closer to accurate.