Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[Klane64]

I know October 8-16 have no dvc available or value or moderate. I thought crowds were slowing down

 

[CarolMN]

I know October 8-16 have no dvc available or value or moderate. I thought crowds were slowing down

That's just a couple of weeks away and that week is a school holiday week for many school districts. Plus it's F&W at EPCOT and MNSSHP at MK.

Crowds could still be down, though - it's the occupancy rates of the off site hotels and resorts that really determine how busy the parks are going to be.

 

[skier_pete]

I know October 8-16 have no dvc available or value or moderate. I thought crowds were slowing down

Just so you know - DVC occupancy matters little to crowds. There are only around 4000 maximum DVC units available (if you split all the lockouts) which means at any one time there are maybe 20,000 DVC occupants at Disney. Meanwhile, there are on average 160,000 theme park goers at Disney every day, with high numbers near 250,000 - and that doesn't include people at the resorts that don't enter a theme park that day. So realistically DVC is probably around 10 % of the theme park occupancy - and that portion is a steady occupancy as it is almost always fully occupied.

Anyways - the short is - the availability charts I think will be least affected by actual economic/social factors that might cause attendance to flucuate. A serious economic downturn - where people are having to cancel vacations - could affect availability - I'm thinking 2001 and maybe 2008.

 

[Bobb_o]

Any insight into Poly studios in mid September? Specifically lake views, I want to rent points for my honeymoon and am wondering if I'm going to need to book next month.

 

[skier_pete]

Any insight into Poly studios in mid September? Specifically lake views, I want to rent points for my honeymoon and am wondering if I'm going to need to book next month.

As I said, I have done nothing on the Poly. However, I will say that the Poly is generally well available at the 7 month mark. (When I look right now - from March 1st on Lake View studios are 100% available, except for a few days in March and one day in April. Mid September is not a particularly popular time of year. If you want to save some money - you could try and set up a rental so that the rental agency books right at the 7-month mark, but there is some risk to this. If you want to guarantee what you want, you are better off renting Poly points (if a rental agent has them) and book BEFORE the 7-month mark (which would be mid-February). However, I definitely think you don't have to worry about booking next month.

 

[drusba]

Any insight into Poly studios in mid September? Specifically lake views, I want to rent points for my honeymoon and am wondering if I'm going to need to book next month.

Poly was readily available for mid-September 2016 at 7 months out. It was open at 7 months out for every day from the day after marathon weekend in January to September 30, 2016. As of today September 28, 2016, it has been open at 7 months out from the day after marathon weekend in Jan 2017 to late April and early May (for those booking that time period now at 7 months out). In fact, the lake views are still open for all of March and April except three nights.

As more and more of Poly sells, its availability may tighten somewhat but most likely it will still be open for that mid-Sep period come mid-February when the 7 month reservation window opens.

 

[skier_pete]

As more and more of Poly sells, its availability may tighten somewhat but most likely it will still be open for that mid-Sep period come mid-February when the 7 month reservation window opens.

I agree with you @drusba, and I know you've done some serious predictive modeling over the years...I still feel like the Poly will be a place that is frequently available at 7-months. People that buy there aren't thinking about the fact that the Poly buy-in is more expensive than any other resort. They are still going to switch to other resorts - especially as they realize they can get a 1-bedroom for only slightly more points than a studio at the Poly. That combined with the large size and all-studio makeup of the Poly I have been continuing to say that the Poly will frequently be available at 7-months, but will often book up quickly shortly thereafter.

 

[Bobb_o]

It's just hard whether I should risk not having the availability I want for saving ~$300 renting from a site like David's or go with what makes sense that there will be availability come February.

 

[gluestickgirl]

It's just hard whether I should risk not having the availability I want for saving ~$300 renting from a site like David's or go with what makes sense that there will be availability come February.

If it were me, I'd rather lock it down ASAP and know my honeymoon was where I wanted it to be. You may run into trouble w/ the rental sites having point availability from Poly owners, and you may be best off getting the ball rolling as soon as possible. I know $300 is a decent chunk of change - but if you don't have a solid plan B on what you want your trip to look like if you can't get the Poly, I'd err on the safe side.

Congrats on your upcoming marriage! =)

 

[skier_pete]

If it were me, I'd rather lock it down ASAP and know my honeymoon was where I wanted it to be. You may run into trouble w/ the rental sites having point availability from Poly owners, and you may be best off getting the ball rolling as soon as possible. I know $300 is a decent chunk of change - but if you don't have a solid plan B on what you want your trip to look like if you can't get the Poly, I'd err on the safe side.

Congrats on your upcoming marriage! =)

I agree with this. If it's just a "I hope that it's available" I would wait. If it's a "I 100% want my honeymoon lake view at the Poly and anything else would be disappointing" then I would get it done with Poly rented points.

BTW - if you do this - make sure they put a request for a upper floor. First floor "Lake" view at the Poly is actual "Bungalow View", really not a great view of the lake. You have to be at least on the 2nd floor.

 

[drusba]

Despite that I think the chances are extremely high that Poly will be open at 7 months out for mid-September, I agree with the above that you should try for Poly as soon as the 11 month reservation window opens. When key desire is certainty rather than saving some bucks, go for certainty. You want Poly for your honeymoon and I can think of several reasons why someone would want that resort over any other for a honeymoon (resort design, atmosphere, Ohanas, the Luau, beach and walking areas). You are going to have only one honeymoon (or at least that is the current expectation) and sacrificing some dollars to assure getting exactly what you want should win over being frugal (although personally I would probably be thinking exactly like you right now, fretting over whether I should instead try to save the $300, but the desire for certainty would eventually win out).

 

[Bobb_o]

Yeah, I'll probably book next month to guarantee it.

That's the one thing I worry about is that we can get a lake view and end up on the 1st floor. We would be disappointed but not completely outraged since we'd still be able to see the fireworks from our patio. In my mind arriving on a Sunday sounds like it should help because I have to imagine more people leave on Sundays but I could be 100% wrong.

 

[skier_pete]

Yeah, I'll probably book next month to guarantee it.

That's the one thing I worry about is that we can get a lake view and end up on the 1st floor. We would be disappointed but not completely outraged since we'd still be able to see the fireworks from our patio. In my mind arriving on a Sunday sounds like it should help because I have to imagine more people leave on Sundays but I could be 100% wrong.

The tricky part here is you renting points - but assuming that the rental agency will do it, make sure they not only put in that you requested an upper floor, but also that you are celebrating your honeymoon. If you were a member, I'd tell you to call guest services directly, and they would likely flag your room to ensure you got an upper floor.

 

[Bobb_o]

The tricky part here is you renting points - but assuming that the rental agency will do it, make sure they not only put in that you requested an upper floor, but also that you are celebrating your honeymoon. If you were a member, I'd tell you to call guest services directly, and they would likely flag your room to ensure you got an upper floor.

I can't remember exactly, but I think last time I was actually able to make requests when I checked in online (I believe I then emailed the rental site to put in the same requests because I had read phone requests are better, no idea if that's true)

I'll probably do the same thing where I tell them my requests and to let Disney know it's our honeymoon (I want those buttons!)

 

[Wakey]

These charts are genius- thanks. Do you think they are still accurate now? It doesn't look too difficult getting something 7 months out latter half of August which surprises me (still weighing up buying DVC)

 

[skier_pete]

These charts are genius- thanks. Do you think they are still accurate now? It doesn't look too difficult getting something 7 months out latter half of August which surprises me (still weighing up buying DVC)

Thank you.

Yes - I still think they are accurate. They are only 1-2 years old. DVC owner travel patterns aren't really going to change. Late August is not a popular time. It is the 3rd most expensive points season, and a lot of "locals" (people within 500 miles) don't come at that time of year because of school. For those without kids, the weather is just as unpleasant as September, but September is much less points - so yes late-August is actually a fairly easy time to get rooms at 7 months. (Really the entire summer with the possible exception of 4th of July weekend is pretty easy for DVC at 7 months.)

What would really change these patterns is more resorts opening up. High demand resorts will become even harder to get into, but really the general travel patterns will remain.

 

[disneynutz]

I can't remember exactly, but I think last time I was actually able to make requests when I checked in online (I believe I then emailed the rental site to put in the same requests because I had read phone requests are better, no idea if that's true)

I'll probably do the same thing where I tell them my requests and to let Disney know it's our honeymoon (I want those buttons!)

The room request check boxes are the same online and for MS. It has been reported that online requests will overwrite the MS requests.

Bill

 

[CarolMN]

I can't remember exactly, but I think last time I was actually able to make requests when I checked in online (I believe I then emailed the rental site to put in the same requests because I had read phone requests are better, no idea if that's true)

I'll probably do the same thing where I tell them my requests and to let Disney know it's our honeymoon (I want those buttons!)

Have the owner put your request in through Member Services. Be sure to ask the owner to tell them to note that this is your honeymoon.

If you decide to do the online check-in, SKIP the section that asks about requests. (You can skip the section without typing or checking anything on the page even if it doesn't look like it). The requests offered for online check-in are not suited for points reservations - they're really based on cash options. If you type or check anything in that section, it will override/erase what Member Services put on your reservation, and you do not want that. Online check-in does not have any way to add "free-form" requests or notes.

Congratulations on your coming marriage - may all go perfectly for you.

 

[carlbarry]

If you decide to do the online check-in, SKIP the section that asks about requests. (You can skip the section without typing or checking anything on the page even if it doesn't look like it). The requests offered for online check-in are not suited for points reservations - they're really based on cash options. If you type or check anything in that section, it will override/erase what Member Services put on your reservation, and you do not want that. Online check-in does not have any way to add "free-form" requests or notes.

I'm staying at AKL Jambo in a few weeks. The drop down no longer has a choice of savannas. So I chose "near lobby" and called Member Services. She said she'd "put in a note for the desk" as to which savanna I'm requesting. Friends of mine, for whom I booked with my points, are going in a couple of weeks and did the same thing. Was this wrong?

 

[disneynutz]

Sounds like Disney doesn't want guests requesting a certain savanna since savanna is a booking category.

Bill