Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[Bobb_o]

Have the owner put your request in through Member Services. Be sure to ask the owner to tell them to note that this is your honeymoon.

If you decide to do the online check-in, SKIP the section that asks about requests. (You can skip the section without typing or checking anything on the page even if it doesn't look like it). The requests offered for online check-in are not suited for points reservations - they're really based on cash options. If you type or check anything in that section, it will override/erase what Member Services put on your reservation, and you do not want that. Online check-in does not have any way to add "free-form" requests or notes.

Congratulations on your coming marriage - may all go perfectly for you.

Ok, since I'm renting through DVCRequest I'll ask them to add the requests (Since only the owner can add those)

I decided to try and book 11 months out because for use the extra $300 = peace of mind

 

[Dawn68PA]

I have not read this whole thread yet but had to say Thank YOU! for all your hard work!

 

[js]

Yeah, I'll probably book next month to guarantee it.

That's the one thing I worry about is that we can get a lake view and end up on the 1st floor. We would be disappointed but not completely outraged since we'd still be able to see the fireworks from our patio. In my mind arriving on a Sunday sounds like it should help because I have to imagine more people leave on Sundays but I could be 100% wrong.

Yom Kippur is September 20-22 and Rosh Hashanna (sorry dont know thhe spelling) is end of September 2017 or the other way around. Just letting you know this since our schools close for the Jewish holidays. You will be spending loads of money on your wedding and honeymoon and in the grand scheme of things $300 will be a drop in the bucket for something you REALLY want. Book this month for your honeymoon. Ill be teying to get Poly studios at seven months for September 9-16. Maybe we will see you lol

 

[drusba]

I have two recent posts, one from September 23, 2016 summarizing the availability of rooms, and for some rooms the lack thereof, at 11 months out, see my post at http://www.disboards.com/threads/11-month-window-what-time-online.3545821/#post-56490616, and the other from October 13, 2016 for all rooms at 7 months out, http://www.disboards.com/threads/ho...been-working-out.3549166/page-2#post-56615436. I thought putting reference to them in this thread, which has already valuable information on rooms in chart form and is well-followed, would be a good idea.

 

[gometros]

Yom Kippur is September 20-22 and Rosh Hashanna (sorry dont know thhe spelling) is end of September 2017 or the other way around. Just letting you know this since our schools close for the Jewish holidays. You will be spending loads of money on your wedding and honeymoon and in the grand scheme of things $300 will be a drop in the bucket for something you REALLY want. Book this month for your honeymoon. Ill be teying to get Poly studios at seven months for September 9-16. Maybe we will see you lol

You have that backwards. Rosh Hashanah is September 21-22, 2017. Yom Kippur is Saturday, September 30th. If you're thinking that will affect crowds, I doubt. Not sure where you live. You'll see schools close for the Jewish holidays in major urban areas like New York, but I suspect that's the exception, not the rule.

 

[carlbarry]

You have that backwards. Rosh Hashanah is September 21-22, 2017. Yom Kippur is Saturday, September 30th. If you're thinking that will affect crowds, I doubt. Not sure where you live. You'll see schools close for the Jewish holidays in major urban areas like New York, but I suspect that's the exception, not the rule.

Schools only close in major metropolitan areas where the are a large number of Jewish students and teachers, such as New York City, Long Island, New York, etc. I agree--I doubt this would have an impact on crowds.

 

[supersnoop]

Schools only close in major metropolitan areas where the are a large number of Jewish students and teachers, such as New York City, Long Island, New York, etc. I agree--I doubt this would have an impact on crowds.

Isn't that what's known as "Jersey Week" when crowds do seem to be higher?

 

[carlbarry]

Isn't that what's known as "Jersey Week" when crowds do seem to be higher?

Jersey Week is the first week of November. Although Jewish holidays dates are based on the lunar calendar, and thus vary year to year from the secular calendar dates, Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur never fall out as late as the first week of November.

 

[skier_pete]

This is fallen all the way down to page 8. Figured I'd bump it back to the top.

I'm still planning on updating for the Poly - but need to wait for it to be at least close to sold out. Maybe another year.

 

[Cyberc1978]

This is fallen all the way down to page 8. Figured I'd bump it back to the top.

I'm still planning on updating for the Poly - but need to wait for it to be at least close to sold out. Maybe another year.

It's great work you have done here, how often do you expect it would require an update?

Also is there any way it could me more or less automated so you don't need to login too often?

 

[skier_pete]

It's great work you have done here, how often do you expect it would require an update?

Also is there any way it could me more or less automated so you don't need to login too often?

That's a great question - the biggest shift I think that occurs over time is as new facilities are added. For instance, when they open the new Copper Creek WLV DVC, it will likely have some sort of effect on the popularity of the old (Boulder Ridge) DVC there. However, I can't predict what that will be, since this is a unique situation. BR may become less in demand because people want to stay at the CC one, but on the other hand, people overall may become more interested in the property due to the new amenities. The Poly coming into play likely resulted in a slight improvement in availability at studios across the property, since it increased the studio availability fairly significantly. A resort like SSR had a HUGE affect on DVC - because of the large # of members, and the desire for those members to preferably book elsewhere.

Another thing that can shift things is new events. For instance, the new Festival Of the Arts in January/February. Initial feedback seems to be positive. Right now much of that time period is very slow for DVC. IT's possible that if the event becomes more popular, that people will start booking earlier at that time of year, turning Jan/Feb into another Oct/Nov.

Finally, new resorts need time to settle into patterns. VGF had just sold out when I started this, and I would imagine that there would be some shifts over those first few years.

Overall, though - I would expect if I redid these tables today (about 2 years after) they wouldn't be much different yet. Part of the reason I designed them with generalities of portions of the month and not specific days, just relative availability. (OPEN vs SOME vs FEW vs NONE)

 

[bobbiwoz]

Isn't that what's known as "Jersey Week" when crowds do seem to be higher?

Jersey week is when the NJEA holds their teachers' convention and many NJ public schools close for the Thursday and Friday of that week. It often coinsides with Election Day in November, so kids only have 2 days of school. Many figure it's a good time to go to WDW.

 

[CarolMN]

When you do an update - and thanks in advance if you do, I'd be interested to see the booking pattern for SSR standard studios vs preferred studios. Anecdotal reports seem to indicate standard studios are not available at 7 months. Of course, that may depend on the season.

 

[skier_pete]

When you do an update - and thanks in advance if you do, I'd be interested to see the booking pattern for SSR standard studios vs preferred studios. Anecdotal reports seem to indicate standard studios are not available at 7 months. Of course, that may depend on the season.

Yes - I definitely would re-do these as separate categories. I have been watching them a little bit, and too my surprise, so far it seems like they are both running about the same. I haven't seen either out at 7 months too often. I does appear that the standard studios are usually gone first by a slight margin, but that is not at all a surprise. Since it's a 60/40 split (standard/preferred) you would expect that the cheaper room category would run out first.

 

[Kwkiwi]

Thanks for a phenomenal job of putting together those charts. I'm just evaluating whether to buy dvc at either BLT or SSR.Doing the what is best value vs home resort priority booking. Your charts have made the situation much clearer with regards to being able to secure rooms at the 7 month mark. Also your advice to other commenters has been very helpful like the point you made about Jan/feb possibly getting busier due to new events. Thanks again. A New Zealand fan of yours!

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks for a phenomenal job of putting together those charts. I'm just evaluating whether to buy dvc at either BLT or SSR.Doing the what is best value vs home resort priority booking. Your charts have made the situation much clearer with regards to being able to secure rooms at the 7 month mark. Also your advice to other commenters has been very helpful like the point you made about Jan/feb possibly getting busier due to new events. Thanks again. A New Zealand fan of yours!

Thank you very much! It's very kind of you to say all that. I am going through a similar thing in that I would eventually like to get more points, and I am caught between SSR (the best value, but not a resort I like very much), AKV (a good value, and a resort I like very much and already own at, but dues are slightly high), or BLT (a resort I haven't stayed at, but also a good value, with a prime location and with a "value" option that you realistically can only take advantage of by owning there). I've pretty much decided I won't go with SSR at current prices...but not sure between AKV and BLT...I really feel like it's best to stay somewhere before you own there - so you can really be sure.

 

[Kwkiwi]

Thank you very much! It's very kind of you to say all that. I am going through a similar thing in that I would eventually like to get more points, and I am caught between SSR (the best value, but not a resort I like very much), AKV (a good value, and a resort I like very much and already own at, but dues are slightly high), or BLT (a resort I haven't stayed at, but also a good value, with a prime location and with a "value" option that you realistically can only take advantage of by owning there). I've pretty much decided I won't go with SSR at current prices...but not sure between AKV and BLT...I really feel like it's best to stay somewhere before you own there - so you can really be sure.

Thanks Pete. I think I feel the same as you re SSR vs BLT. We stayed at the Contemporary in January. I loved the central location and the monorail. We did use the buses to go to other parks and also Disney springs. I didn't like the waiting around and having to stand up in a crowded bus at 1030pm! I think I'd use uber instead of the bus next time. I also love the wishes fireworks.

Your advice to another commenter to perhaps keep the POLY dvc for a few years and then switch out to SSR later might apply to me. As we would only be going every couple of years and sometimes renting out points I'm sure davids rental are more interested in BLT owners than SSR owners. And it seems a bit of a lottery based on your charts if I bought in to SSR and then tried to book BLT/POLY/VCF or VGF which are my preferences! I'm going to ring Davids rental later on to seek their advice on which is the more difficult desirablle resort to own. I did try to bookBLT 3 months out from our Jan stay at davids rental. The whole thing was going to go through, they found the dates, then they couldn't find the points to match it and they lost the booking! Anyway thanks again for doing the charts. It's the sort of thing I'd attempt to do to get the detail I'm always seeking. You'll go down in history Pete as the Disney availability guy! Cheers

 

[Chereya]

This is such an amazing resource you've put together! Thank you! Looks like a real labor of love

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks Pete. I think I feel the same as you re SSR vs BLT. We stayed at the Contemporary in January. I loved the central location and the monorail. We did use the buses to go to other parks and also Disney springs. I didn't like the waiting around and having to stand up in a crowded bus at 1030pm! I think I'd use uber instead of the bus next time. I also love the wishes fireworks.

Your advice to another commenter to perhaps keep the POLY dvc for a few years and then switch out to SSR later might apply to me. As we would only be going every couple of years and sometimes renting out points I'm sure davids rental are more interested in BLT owners than SSR owners. And it seems a bit of a lottery based on your charts if I bought in to SSR and then tried to book BLT/POLY/VCF or VGF which are my preferences! I'm going to ring Davids rental later on to seek their advice on which is the more difficult desirablle resort to own. I did try to bookBLT 3 months out from our Jan stay at davids rental. The whole thing was going to go through, they found the dates, then they couldn't find the points to match it and they lost the booking! Anyway thanks again for doing the charts. It's the sort of thing I'd attempt to do to get the detail I'm always seeking. You'll go down in history Pete as the Disney availability guy! Cheers

From a rental prospect -you will definitely make more money owning at BLT than at SSR. As long as you plan to rent them enough in advance, you will be able to get a premium rate (11 month rate) from a place like David's. They pay more for coveted locations like that. You might be talking only $2 per point more, but the difference will add up across a few hundred points.

This is such an amazing resource you've put together! Thank you! Looks like a real labor of love

"Labor" definitely..."love" maybe not. I did the work for selfish reasons, really the only "nice" part is sharing it with everyone. But thank you for your kind words. I do find it gratifying when people indicate that this was helpful to them! It makes me want to update it again - the new resort availability tool is actually MUCH easier to use for this type of information that the old one. (With the old one, you had to keep changing the search criteria as you could only look at a 3-month window at a time...now you can scroll through all the months for all the resorts pretty easily. It still would take a long time to do - as I would like to eventually expand it to more 1 and 2 bedrooms. I am planning on re-starting later this year as the Poly gets near sold out.

 

[Anal Annie]

I've been doing my own bit of daily watching for late Sept. for F&W. It's surprising how the availability changes from day to day - a couple of days ago the dates we are interested in were available in a BLT STD. studio but of course they didn't last. This morning there was some availablity in an AKV Value studio. It wasn't there yesterday so I know that won't last either. I still have 8 more days to go until our window opens but figured I'd start watching now out of curiosity... We have to borrow to book the trip so I want to get our priorities figured out so I'm ready that morning to snag whatever we can.

I am curious if them moving the start of F&W back earlier & earlier will have much affect on the availability?!?!