Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[Scott Eichenberger]

a number guys dream! Great analysis.

 

[skier_pete]

Great idea! Thanks! I haven't read the entire thread so didn't know if there will be some adjustments made now to account for the 2 new split booking categories at SSR?! Just wanted to say that I booked at SSR for Jan. 3-9, 2017 in the standard category (we actually prefer the standard Grandstand section). I booked this at around 10 months (the marathon falls during this time period and even when I first booked nearly every resort was already at no availability for Jan 5th & 6th because of the marathon - there was some spotty availability at AKV. Anyway, I just looked again out of curiosity to see if there had been any significant changes and the standard category at SSR now also shows Jan. 5th & 6th as GONE!! The preferred (more expensive) category however is still open tho. Guessing that folks booking at SSR will actually now be preferring to book the less expensive "standard" category?! Glad I booked when I did!!! I think it will be interesting to watch the new booking trends there now that they've split it up like that.

I did talk about this earlier in the thread - I predicted the likelihood that even though it's the larger category, the standard category will run out first. Lower point categories are almost always the more popular, but it is rare that they are the larger category. I was thinking it would be an interesting thing to re-survey this, but I'm going to wait a year or so to do it. Advantage to SSR owners though!

 

[Anal Annie]

I did talk about this earlier in the thread - I predicted the likelihood that even though it's the larger category, the standard category will run out first. Lower point categories are almost always the more popular, but it is rare that they are the larger category. I was thinking it would be an interesting thing to re-survey this, but I'm going to wait a year or so to do it. Advantage to SSR owners though!

I was just surprised to see it develop so early!

Definitely an advantage for us since we prefer the Grandstand Section anyway! I was just glad I hadn't piddled around on booking it - so rare that you see SSR having availability issues!

 

[bristowe]

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A few observations - Jambo is slightly harder to get into than Kidani. Standard View and Savannah View are roughly the same at Jambo. Kidani Savannah View is a little easier to get than Standard View - I think this is because a lot more of the resort is Savannah View. Not surprisingly, Value is never an easy get unless you own there.

You are incredible ty!!!! we are waiting on closing for BWV now so this is incredibly helpful! So appreciated!

 

[thejewellfamily]

This is awesome! Thank you thank you! This will help convince my husband to pull the trigger on DVC!

 

[indyannamom]

Awesome thread! Thank you to skier_pete for all your time and thoughtfulness to share!

 

[docsoliday1]

I'd just like to say two things:

1) Thank you so much for sharing so much of your valuable time and effort with the rest of us.
2) For everyone asking why not this or why not that....can you just be appreciative of what he's done for all of us instead of complaining about what was not done??????

 

[keishashadow]

must've missed this thread first go-around.

thanks OP, lots of work involved, phew!

jmho as an one who often has booked both BWV & AKV @ 11 month window in May & Oct...

AK Jambo values go fast. When Star Wars Weekends were in effect, even moreso.

BWV Standard studios go faster...light speed in October, especially around Columbus Day. On the 11 month button had to waitlist last few years. Several others have had the same experience here. My theory is walkers, regardless, have usually gotten dates we need via WL'ing and stalking the member site.

 

[gingerbcop]

Magical Job!!!

 

[seelyt2]

Oh my goodness - this is a great! Thanks for all your time and effort

 

[lovin'fl]

OMG, this is amazing. We are not studio dwellers mostly but it still can give an accurate idea...I just figure 1BR's will be a tad extended ion availability. So if I see studios available at 7 months out on your chart, I can feel safe that a 1BR will be as well.

Though I will say that I just booked a BCV studio for Dec 19-26 at 7 months out and there is still availability showing for that 2 week period. So I expected you chart to show as spotty for then. But maybe your Dec 16-30 chart was for 2015 when it was the last Osbourne lights show so a lot of folks jumped on an unplanned trip to see them for the last time.

 

[skier_pete]

OMG, this is amazing. We are not studio dwellers mostly but it still can give an accurate idea...I just figure 1BR's will be a tad extended ion availability. So if I see studios available at 7 months out on your chart, I can feel safe that a 1BR will be as well.

Though I will say that I just booked a BCV studio for Dec 19-26 at 7 months out and there is still availability showing for that 2 week period. So I expected you chart to show as spotty for then. But maybe your Dec 16-30 chart was for 2015 when it was the last Osbourne lights show so a lot of folks jumped on an unplanned trip to see them for the last time.

It's far from a perfect system - I did most of this between May 2014 and May 2015. I am sure over time popularity shifts and what's available one year may not be the next...it was really just to give a broad overview.

But I would agree with your assessment, 1 bedrooms are almost always available longer than studios.

 

[lovin'fl]

I also wonder if adding all the Poly studios to the inventory might actually be helping the other studio availability. Though once they sell out of points it likely will be a tad tougher on availability.

 

[skier_pete]

I also wonder if adding all the Poly studios to the inventory might actually be helping the other studio availability. Though once they sell out of points it likely will be a tad tougher on availability.

I do think this will occur - though the affect might not be very noticeable. As Poly owners start to see they could rent 1-bedrooms at other resorts for only slightly more than they are paying for their studios, I think they will spread out. I actually think that Poly availability will be fairly common at 7-months for a while, even as the resort sells out. While some owners just want to stay at their home resort, most like to try different locations. Having an inventory of that many studios will likely make availability there pretty common at 7-months, though I think like BCV it will sell out VERY quickly at 7-months.

 

[supersnoop]

I do think this will occur - though the affect might not be very noticeable. As Poly owners start to see they could rent 1-bedrooms at other resorts for only slightly more than they are paying for their studios, I think they will spread out. I actually think that Poly availability will be fairly common at 7-months for a while, even as the resort sells out. While some owners just want to stay at their home resort, most like to try different locations. Having an inventory of that many studios will likely make availability there pretty common at 7-months, though I think like BCV it will sell out VERY quickly at 7-months.

I agree. While everyone here on the DIS will tell you to only buy PVB if you want to always stay at PVB, 90% of the folks purchasing PVB are doing so because it's the resort that's being actively sold and marketed. Many of those owners will want to stay at other resorts in the future.

 

[Disn3yVision]

I agree. While everyone here on the DIS will tell you to only buy PVB if you want to always stay at PVB, 90% of the folks purchasing PVB are doing so because it's the resort that's being actively sold and marketed. Many of those owners will want to stay at other resorts in the future.

We recently bought at Poly because it was our favorite choice overall (or else we would have just saved some $ and bought resale) but definitely plan on staying at plenty of other resorts over the 50 year life of the contract.

 

[skier_pete]

We recently bought at Poly because it was our favorite choice overall (or else we would have just saved some $ and bought resale) but definitely plan on staying at plenty of other resorts over the 50 year life of the contract.

If you mostly want to stay at the Poly it is best to buy there. There are other factors there that may affect the availability as too hard to predict. For instance, 20% of the points at the resort are tied up in the bungalows, but my bet is that not 20% of the buyers will be able to afford them. Therefore, you will probably have more owners that want the studios than have point allotments. Since you also will have owners going to other resorts, this might not be that big an issue, but all these little factors (only studios, high point costs...) will in the end affect the availability in ways that are hard to predict, but until the place is sold out and owners have been going for awhile things won't really settle down to be worth trying to survey...but I still predict that you will have fair availability most of the year at 7 months.

 

[ziravan]

If you mostly want to stay at the Poly it is best to buy there. There are other factors there that may affect the availability as too hard to predict. For instance, 20% of the points at the resort are tied up in the bungalows, but my bet is that not 20% of the buyers will be able to afford them. Therefore, you will probably have more owners that want the studios than have point allotments. Since you also will have owners going to other resorts, this might not be that big an issue, but all these little factors (only studios, high point costs...) will in the end affect the availability in ways that are hard to predict, but until the place is sold out and owners have been going for awhile things won't really settle down to be worth trying to survey...but I still predict that you will have fair availability most of the year at 7 months.

Also, as we are seeing, almost everybody renting Poly points for home booking advantage are doing so for F&W through mid Dec. Even IF Poly is avail at 7 months in Feb-Aug much of the time, it almost certainly won't be during DVC Prime Time.

Poly, two minute walk from TTC EPCOT monorail, is a de facto F&W resort.

Now, the EPCOT resorts are still better to stagger home to after F&W, don't get me wrong. It's why I own BCV as well.

 

[The Lost Disney Princess]

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VGF is definitely the hardest to get in resort. It may be even harder now than when I started doing this in May 2014. Basically if you don't own there, don't count on getting a studio. If you do own there, you better still book early.

What about 2 bedroom lake view at the 6 months booking window?

 

[skier_pete]

What about 2 bedroom lake view at the 6 months booking window?

I didn't do 2 bedrooms as I stated in my FAQ. There are dedicated 2-bedrooms at VGF, so it's quite possible there still could be 2-bedrooms available at 6 months, but you would have to look for yourself.