Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[Supplanter]

This is awesome! Does anyone have a feel for how the 2 beds go? About the same as 1 beds? Last longer? Go quicker?

 

[supersnoop]

This is awesome! Does anyone have a feel for how the 2 beds go? About the same as 1 beds? Last longer? Go quicker?

Two bedrooms should track studios. Most studios are part of two bedroom lockoffs, so every studio booking takes a two bedroom out of inventory. Since some two bedrooms are dedicated units, that inventory should last a little longer, but not much, and nowhere near as long as one bedrooms.

 

[skier_pete]

This is awesome! Does anyone have a feel for how the 2 beds go? About the same as 1 beds? Last longer? Go quicker?

Two bedrooms should track studios. Most studios are part of two bedroom lockoffs, so every studio booking takes a two bedroom out of inventory. Since some two bedrooms are dedicated units, that inventory should last a little longer, but not much, and nowhere near as long as one bedrooms.

Well, @Supplanter, what @supersnoop says is partially true - most resorts have some combination of dedicated 2-bedrooms and 2-bedroom lock-offs, which are able to be split into a studio and a 1-bedroom. When the studios are gone, that means all the lock-offs are gone.

However - Boardwalk is the only resort that is ENTIRELY lock-offs. The rest have somewhere between 36% dedicated (AKV) and 54% dedicated (OKW). Many of the resorts ONLY have these two options. For instance - BLT has 148 dedicated 2-bedrooms, and 133 lock-offs. That gives it a maximum of 133 studios and 133 1-bedrooms, but a maximum of 281 2-bedrooms.

Another example - VGF has 47 dedicated and 47 lock-off 2-bedrooms. So there are only 47 studios, but 94 2-bedrooms. Some people early on may choose to book a 2-bedroom lockoff, eating up one studio and one 1-bedroom in the process.

What does all this mean for availability?
Studios are the more popular and also sparser than 2 bedrooms.
1-bedrooms are the least popular (because they are twice the points of a studio, but sleep the same # of people) but are also sparser than 2-bedrooms.
2-bedrooms are more popular than 1-bedrooms and less popular than studios. However, there are typically more 2-bedrooms than 1-bedrooms.

The result is that I think you would find that 2-bedrooms are more readily available than studios - except at Boardwalk. However, they are slightly less available than 1-bedrooms. So the best answer I can give you is:

"2-bedroom availability probably falls somewhere in between the studios and 1 bedrooms, and probably is slightly skewed towards the 1-bedroom availability in MOST cases".

 

[FireflyTrance]

Doesn't AKL/AKV have a Concierge option? I was wondering how difficult this is to book at 11 months/7 months? We are thinking about buying there. Thanks!

 

[Brian Noble]

Doesn't AKL/AKV have a Concierge option? I was wondering how difficult this is to book at 11 months/7 months? We are thinking about buying there. Thanks!

From the first post in the thread:

What about AKV Concierge?

Doing a table for this didn’t make sense. Concierge is basically at “Spotty” to “None” at the 11-month window.

 

[skier_pete]

Doesn't AKL/AKV have a Concierge option? I was wondering how difficult this is to book at 11 months/7 months? We are thinking about buying there. Thanks!

This question is answered in my FAQ at the beginning. Basically, Club level (Concierge level) is booked up usually very close to 11 months. The Value rooms are tough enough with so few, but my understanding is there are only FIVE total lock-off two bedrooms on the DVC Club level. So essentially 5 studios and 5 1-bedrooms. There is a high demand for them, so they pretty much book up right at the 11-month mark. You'll see sporadic availability pop up maybe, but not likely. I just searched, and there are 4 days available in March 2017 (not all together) and every other date from July to February is booked for a studio.

A 1-bedroom is typically more available, realizing the point price is MUCH higher - but I didn't track 1-bedrooms. Even there, you will get availability at 11 months, but by the 10-month mark it will be spotty, and whatever isn't grabbed up by owners will be gone at 7-months.

 

[pangyal]

Just to speak to this point about the Club Level...I once read a post from an AKV owner who walked his CL Studio reservation for four and a half months to ensure he got the reservation for the week he wanted.

 

[DisneyHygienist]

This is a great resource! We are new SSR owners still in the process of closing so I am new to the DVC game. We have always done Disney in the fall because it is said to be a "less busy" time to go. Why is it that it seems to be a busy time for DVC? Because of F&W?

 

[pinklotusflower]

This is a great resource! We are new SSR owners still in the process of closing so I am new to the DVC game. We have always done Disney in the fall because it is said to be a "less busy" time to go. Why is it that it seems to be a busy time for DVC? Because of F&W?

You have F&W and Mickey's not so Scary and less points in September and it's not as hot in October

 

[DisneyHygienist]

You have F&W and Mickey's not so Scary and less points in September and it's not as hot in October

Makes sense. Thanks!

 

[Disn3yVision]

This. Is. Awesome.

 

[skier_pete]

This is a great resource! We are new SSR owners still in the process of closing so I am new to the DVC game. We have always done Disney in the fall because it is said to be a "less busy" time to go. Why is it that it seems to be a busy time for DVC? Because of F&W?

You have F&W and Mickey's not so Scary and less points in September and it's not as hot in October

Yes - I think the lower point season is the primary reason. This is why early December is the #1 season for DVC. Special events are the secondary reason. Remember, DVC owners skew as older, and also visit more frequently. So typically peak season when the kids are off aren't that important to a larger group of them. Events like Food & Wine and the RunDisney events are huge incentives for DVC people. Those older and more frequent folks also are more likely to have a luxury of booking far in advance.

That's not to say there aren't DVC owners with young kids, but that's why those typically busy times when kids are off from school book up slower. They still book up, though!

 

[FirstTimeDisneyVisit]

Amazing job !!! If our resale goes though we will have 2 months till our trip and this chart helps out tremendously !! thank you very much

 

[skier_pete]

Amazing job !!! If our resale goes though we will have 2 months till our trip and this chart helps out tremendously !! thank you very much

Wow - good luck with getting something at 2 months notice. Might have a reasonable shot early in September. You might have to go with a 1-bedroom, though.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I said this elsewhere, and this is by no means shade on the work, but I think this historic look may overstate the optimism for October-December 2016. This year has been abormally (or the new normally?) brutal.

 

[supersnoop]

I said this elsewhere, and this is by no means shade on the work, but I think this historic look may overstate the optimism for October-December 2016. This year has been abormally (or the new normally?) brutal.

What makes you think it's worse this year? All the data suggests that all studios are already booked up. Every studio is either "spotty" or "none" for October at this point in time.

 

[skier_pete]

I said this elsewhere, and this is by no means shade on the work, but I think this historic look may overstate the optimism for October-December 2016. This year has been abormally (or the new normally?) brutal.

Actually, I did a survey for October to check for accuracy. (We are going in October.) I found that the data on the tables were actually pretty accurate - most everything that showed available at 9 months was still available at 9 months (January) and by 7 months pretty much everything was booked up, but that it what you would expect based on these tables.

I would of course expect that over time, the trends on the resorts will change - especially as more resorts open. I think that it is safe to say these tables provide no guarantee that next years data will match this years data.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

What makes you think it's worse this year? All the data suggests that all studios are already booked up. Every studio is either "spotty" or "none" for October at this point in time.

Well, this year even SSR and AKV-Savannah View have been "better be on at 8AM" bookings. The thought that "well, if I have to book past 7 months SSR or OKW are always options!" seems less true this year unless 1BR points come into play.

 

[supersnoop]

Well, this year even SSR and AKV-Savannah View have been "better be on at 8AM" bookings. The thought that "well, if I have to book past 7 months SSR or OKW are always options!" seems less true this year unless 1BR points come into play.

Kidani Savanna View has the 7-month day open right now, as well as the four days leading up to it. That seems to match the data from last year.

 

[Anal Annie]

Great idea! Thanks! I haven't read the entire thread so didn't know if there will be some adjustments made now to account for the 2 new split booking categories at SSR?! Just wanted to say that I booked at SSR for Jan. 3-9, 2017 in the standard category (we actually prefer the standard Grandstand section). I booked this at around 10 months (the marathon falls during this time period and even when I first booked nearly every resort was already at no availability for Jan 5th & 6th because of the marathon - there was some spotty availability at AKV. Anyway, I just looked again out of curiosity to see if there had been any significant changes and the standard category at SSR now also shows Jan. 5th & 6th as GONE!! The preferred (more expensive) category however is still open tho. Guessing that folks booking at SSR will actually now be preferring to book the less expensive "standard" category?! Glad I booked when I did!!! I think it will be interesting to watch the new booking trends there now that they've split it up like that.