Obama supporters! - A positive place to talk about his campaign

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She has to get something like 70% of the undecided superdelegates if she wins by only 10% margins in all upcoming contests. She has about 55% or so of the ones who've decided. Maybe she can get Huckabee to ask God for a miracle? :rotfl:

Funny:goodvibes :goodvibes :goodvibes !!!!
 
Updated delegate counter on CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

I like playing with this. You'll see Hillary has to win ALL upcoming contests 66-34% to be able to take the lead in pledged delegates. If she wins them all by 55-45% (last night's PA results), and gets the same % of remaining superdelegates, Obama still wins the nomination.

Chuck Todd said last night that there is no way she can win the delegate total and it is virtually impossible to win the popular vote lead. So how exactly is she going to say she should be the nominee? Please don't tell me that bogus "electoral college math."
 
Updated delegate counter on CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

I like playing with this. You'll see Hillary has to win ALL upcoming contests 66-34% to be able to take the lead in pledged delegates. If she wins them all by 55-45% (last night's PA results), and gets the same % of remaining superdelegates, Obama still wins the nomination.

Okay so this is what I did:

Guam - Clinton 54% to Obama 46% 2-2
Indiana - Clinton 54% to Obama 46% 39-33
North Carolina - Clinton 40% to Obama 60% 46 - 69
WV - Clinton 65% to Obama 35% 19-9
KY - Clinton 65% to Obama 35% 33 - 18
Oregon - Clinton 45% to Obama 55% 23-29
MT - Clinton 35% to Obama 65% 5 - 11
SD - Clinton 35% to Obama 65% 5 - 10
Puerto Rico - Clinton 58% - Obama 42% 32 - 23

Total from the remaining contests: Clinton 204 pledged delegates - Obama 204 pledged delegates

Total before remaining Superdelegates - Clinton 1,790 - Obama 1,923 total delegates

Clinton would then need 77% (235) of the remaining 308 superdelegates in order to win the nomination. Obama would need 33% or 102 superdelegates to win the nomination.
 
I can't see how anyone would think MI's votes should be included in Clinton's total popular vote or in her delegate total - she was the only major candidate on the ballot. It certainly is humorous to watch the spin coming from Clinton land regarding those votes. I hope something is worked out with MI and FL, but there is no way those delegates should be seated as is, especially Michigan.

Even after Hillary's "blowout" win, Obama is up by 500K votes and 140ish delegates. Given the remaining races splitting between the two, most likely, there's no way she is going to make anymore of a dent in that.

I agree that MI votes should not be included in the total. In fact, I don't think that for purposes of declaring a "victor" the FL votes should count either. Rules are rules. But never the less, there are a lot of people in those states, and so its hard to say that SDs would be overturning the national will when we haven't been very good about polling the national will.
 
Just in case any of you missed this:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/zachedwards/gGCVsd

Edwards backers call North Carolina primary clear choice between real change and more of the same

Raleigh, NC -- The Obama campaign today announced the endorsement of 49 prominent supporters of John Edwards - including Ed Turlington, Edwards’ former National General Chairman. These North Carolina leaders - ranging from Members of Congress to a former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court to former law partners and longtime friends of John Edwards - cite Barack Obama’s commitment to fighting for change on behalf of working Americans and taking on the special interests in Washington.

"Barack Obama and John Edwards share a commitment to taking on special interests and standing up for regular Americans. Along with Edwards supporters from across the state, I am honored to join Senator Obama's movement for change,” said Turlington. “As president, he will bring together Democrats, Republicans and Independents behind an agenda of change. From ending the war in Iraq to confronting the scourge of poverty to making health care affordable for every single American, Barack Obama will bring our country the change we need.”

The diverse group said they are voting for Obama because he is the only candidate with a proven ability to unite America around a common vision and win the votes of Republicans and Independents whose support is critical to carrying the state in the fall.

Like Edwards, Obama refused donations from PACs and Washington lobbyists and vowed to stand up to the special interests that have blocked so much progress for working Americans in Washington, DC.

“John Edwards has dedicated his life and career to fighting poverty in America. Barack Obama demonstrated that same commitment when he turned down a high-paying job on Wall Street to work in Chicago communities decimated by steel mill closings,” said Louise Coggins, a social worker from Wilmington who has known John and Elizabeth Edwards for 30 years. “Senator Obama is now the only candidate in the race who doesn’t take money from PACs and federal lobbyists. We can count on him to stand up to special interests in Washington, DC on behalf of working men and women in America.”

We need everyone in North Carolina getting involved right away, by volunteering at their local office. If you are not in North Carolina, we need you to start calling here using the MyBO call tool, or take a trip here to make the biggest impact on the ground. Join Us!

Click here to see the full list of local leaders who had previously backed John Edwards' campaign for president, but today are throwing their support behind Obama.


David Price, U.S. Congressman (4th Dist) Mel Watt, U.S. Congressman (12th Dist) G.K. Butterfield, U.S. Congressman (1st Dist)

Peggy Abrams, Attorney, Doug Abrams, Attorney, Phil Baddour, Attorney & Former NC House Majority Leader Steven Bernholz, Attorney Clifford Britt, Attorney Wade Byrd, Attorney Stephen D. Coggins, Attorney Louise Coggins, Social Worker/Therapist W. Thompson Comerford, Jr., Attorney Michael Cucchiara, Business leader Lisbeth Evans, Secretary of NC Department of Cultural Resources Anthony Foxx, Charlotte City Councilman Henry Frye, Former Chief Justice of North Carolina Supreme Court Shirley Frye, Former Educator, Community Leader Harvey B. Gantt, Former Edwards National Co-Chair, Former Charlotte mayor Richard Gusler, Attorney Pricey Harrison, North Carolina State Representative Marty Hayes, Activist James Heavner, Business leader C. Mark Holt, Attorney Leonard Jernigan, Attorney Adelaide Key, Philanthropist Eleanor Kinniard, North Carolina State Senator Henry McKoy, Business leader Brownie Newman, Asheville City Council member Spencer Parris, Attorney Roger Perry, UNC-Chapel Hill Board of Trustees--Chairman Jim Phillips Jr., Attorney and Chair, UNC Board of Governors Wade Smith, Attorney & Former State Democratic Party Chair Sallie Shuping Russell, Business leader and UNC-Chapel Hill Board of Trustees Roger Smith, Attorney Bob Spearman, Attorney & Former Wake County Democratic Party Chair Pat Spearman, Activist Adam Stein, Attorney Nina Szlosberg, Conservationist & Department of Transportation Board Member Amy Tiemann, Writer Michael Tiemann, Red Hat Executive Kevin Trapani, President & CEO, The Redwoods Group Tim Toben, Business leader Ed Turlington, Attorney & Former Edwards National Chairman Marla Turlington, Activist Howard Twiggs, Attorney & Former State legislator Steve Warren, Attorney Willis P. Wichard, Author, Dean, and Former State Supreme Court Justice Carter Worthy, Realtor Todd Zapolski, Business leader
 
Just in case any of you missed this:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/zachedwards/gGCVsd

Edwards backers call North Carolina primary clear choice between real change and more of the same

Raleigh, NC -- The Obama campaign today announced the endorsement of 49 prominent supporters of John Edwards - including Ed Turlington, Edwards’ former National General Chairman. These North Carolina leaders - ranging from Members of Congress to a former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court to former law partners and longtime friends of John Edwards - cite Barack Obama’s commitment to fighting for change on behalf of working Americans and taking on the special interests in Washington.

"Barack Obama and John Edwards share a commitment to taking on special interests and standing up for regular Americans. Along with Edwards supporters from across the state, I am honored to join Senator Obama's movement for change,” said Turlington. “As president, he will bring together Democrats, Republicans and Independents behind an agenda of change. From ending the war in Iraq to confronting the scourge of poverty to making health care affordable for every single American, Barack Obama will bring our country the change we need.”

The diverse group said they are voting for Obama because he is the only candidate with a proven ability to unite America around a common vision and win the votes of Republicans and Independents whose support is critical to carrying the state in the fall.

Like Edwards, Obama refused donations from PACs and Washington lobbyists and vowed to stand up to the special interests that have blocked so much progress for working Americans in Washington, DC.

“John Edwards has dedicated his life and career to fighting poverty in America. Barack Obama demonstrated that same commitment when he turned down a high-paying job on Wall Street to work in Chicago communities decimated by steel mill closings,” said Louise Coggins, a social worker from Wilmington who has known John and Elizabeth Edwards for 30 years. “Senator Obama is now the only candidate in the race who doesn’t take money from PACs and federal lobbyists. We can count on him to stand up to special interests in Washington, DC on behalf of working men and women in America.”

We need everyone in North Carolina getting involved right away, by volunteering at their local office. If you are not in North Carolina, we need you to start calling here using the MyBO call tool, or take a trip here to make the biggest impact on the ground. Join Us!

Click here to see the full list of local leaders who had previously backed John Edwards' campaign for president, but today are throwing their support behind Obama.


David Price, U.S. Congressman (4th Dist) Mel Watt, U.S. Congressman (12th Dist) G.K. Butterfield, U.S. Congressman (1st Dist)

Peggy Abrams, Attorney, Doug Abrams, Attorney, Phil Baddour, Attorney & Former NC House Majority Leader Steven Bernholz, Attorney Clifford Britt, Attorney Wade Byrd, Attorney Stephen D. Coggins, Attorney Louise Coggins, Social Worker/Therapist W. Thompson Comerford, Jr., Attorney Michael Cucchiara, Business leader Lisbeth Evans, Secretary of NC Department of Cultural Resources Anthony Foxx, Charlotte City Councilman Henry Frye, Former Chief Justice of North Carolina Supreme Court Shirley Frye, Former Educator, Community Leader Harvey B. Gantt, Former Edwards National Co-Chair, Former Charlotte mayor Richard Gusler, Attorney Pricey Harrison, North Carolina State Representative Marty Hayes, Activist James Heavner, Business leader C. Mark Holt, Attorney Leonard Jernigan, Attorney Adelaide Key, Philanthropist Eleanor Kinniard, North Carolina State Senator Henry McKoy, Business leader Brownie Newman, Asheville City Council member Spencer Parris, Attorney Roger Perry, UNC-Chapel Hill Board of Trustees--Chairman Jim Phillips Jr., Attorney and Chair, UNC Board of Governors Wade Smith, Attorney & Former State Democratic Party Chair Sallie Shuping Russell, Business leader and UNC-Chapel Hill Board of Trustees Roger Smith, Attorney Bob Spearman, Attorney & Former Wake County Democratic Party Chair Pat Spearman, Activist Adam Stein, Attorney Nina Szlosberg, Conservationist & Department of Transportation Board Member Amy Tiemann, Writer Michael Tiemann, Red Hat Executive Kevin Trapani, President & CEO, The Redwoods Group Tim Toben, Business leader Ed Turlington, Attorney & Former Edwards National Chairman Marla Turlington, Activist Howard Twiggs, Attorney & Former State legislator Steve Warren, Attorney Willis P. Wichard, Author, Dean, and Former State Supreme Court Justice Carter Worthy, Realtor Todd Zapolski, Business leader



That's impressive. Now if Edwards himself would get off his butt and endorse Barack we'd really have a fire going.
 
The fact is, Hillary is no further ahead than she was the day after Super Tuesday. The only thing that has changed is the rhetorical goal-posts. Nothing else.

And frankly, what good would a debate be to Hillary if ABC isn't hosting it? Does she think she's going to get another stacked deck like that again?

Btw, if Obama wants to give Hillary the knockout punch, he doesn't have to go negative. He can take a page out of "Saint Ronnie's" book and spend her into bankruptcy. An 8.6% Clinton victory isn't very impressive considering where she started. She's going to have to do a helluva lot better than 3 million dollars considering she's 10 million in debt now.
 
The fact is, Hillary is no further ahead than she was the day after Super Tuesday. The only thing that has changed is the rhetorical goal-posts. Nothing else.

And frankly, what good would a debate be to Hillary if ABC isn't hosting it? Does she think she's going to get another stacked deck like that again?

Btw, if Obama wants to give Hillary the knockout punch, he doesn't have to go negative. He can take a page out of "Saint Ronnie's" book and spend her into bankruptcy. An 8.6% Clinton victory isn't very impressive considering where she started. She's going to have to do a helluva lot better than 3 million dollars considering she's 10 million in debt now.

Somehow, I don't think participants in 'operation chaos' are going to be doling out the ducats anytime soon for HRC.
 
Hillary only acts "presidential" in the respect that we've drastically lowered our expectations of how a president should act.
Also, think about this...When McCain sang "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran", he was joking. When Hillary threatened them with "obliteration", do you think she was?

Here's the problem: I don't trust Hillary to be what she now claims to be. She was for NAFTA long before she was against it, and every public remark she made back then was very enthusiastic in her support. That weighs a lot more with me than some back room meetings that only her supporters seem to be able to remember. She was, again, an enthusiastic supporter of the Iraq mistake. When casting her vote, she made a dramatic and heart-felt speech in favor of invasion - not of giving Bush the power of diplomacy, which is what she now claims. She claims to want change...but has done nothing to put her power to use while in the senate. Where have all these wonderful ideas she's spouting off during all those years when - junior senator or not - she could have been putting that name of hers to good use in trying to get progressive legislation passed?

So no, I don't trust her, I don't like her very apparent sense of entitlement to the nomination, and I greatly dislike what she has become during this campaign, and what she is doing to the party. Will I vote for her over McCain? At this point, I'm still undecided. I don't think I can vote for McCain....his name is just to close to that terrorist fella McVeigh's for my comfort. ;) But that said, I'm still not certain I'd vote for her, either.

Hopefully, I'll never have to find out how I would make that choice.

This post--particularly the bolded part--nicely captures my thoughts about HRC. I cannot vote for McCain, so I will in all likelihood take LuvDuke up on her offer of nose plugs while I vote for HRC.
 
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As hard as this is to believe, these people have been banned for NO OTHER REASON than for posting on an Internet Message Board that the DIS leaders disapprove of. The name of the board is the “UnDis” and the main forum is “Circle of Sarcasm.” Some people have expressed doubt that such a thing could happen. Well, it HAS happened! Look around you; these posters are no longer with us.


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Thought you guys would be interested in this. This is the NY Times-the paper that endorsed Senator Clinton over Obama in the NY Primary a few months ago.

The Low Road to Victory
The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it.
Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election.
If nothing else, self interest should push her in that direction. Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead.
On the eve of this crucial primary, Mrs. Clinton became the first Democratic candidate to wave the bloody shirt of 9/11. A Clinton television ad — torn right from Karl Rove’s playbook — evoked the 1929 stock market crash, Pearl Harbor, the Cuban missile crisis, the cold war and the 9/11 attacks, complete with video of Osama bin Laden. “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen,” the narrator intoned.
If that was supposed to bolster Mrs. Clinton’s argument that she is the better prepared to be president in a dangerous world, she sent the opposite message on Tuesday morning by declaring in an interview on ABC News that if Iran attacked Israel while she were president: “We would be able to totally obliterate them.”
By staying on the attack and not engaging Mr. Obama on the substance of issues like terrorism, the economy and how to organize an orderly exit from Iraq, Mrs. Clinton does more than just turn off voters who don’t like negative campaigning. She undercuts the rationale for her candidacy that led this page and others to support her: that she is more qualified, right now, to be president than Mr. Obama.
Mr. Obama is not blameless when it comes to the negative and vapid nature of this campaign. He is increasingly rising to Mrs. Clinton’s bait, undercutting his own claims that he is offering a higher more inclusive form of politics. When she criticized his comments about “bitter” voters, Mr. Obama mocked her as an Annie Oakley wannabe. All that does is remind Americans who are on the fence about his relative youth and inexperience.
No matter what the high-priced political operatives (from both camps) may think, it is not a disadvantage that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton share many of the same essential values and sensible policy prescriptions. It is their strength, and they are doing their best to make voters forget it. And if they think that only Democrats are paying attention to this spectacle, they’re wrong.
After seven years of George W. Bush’s failed with-us-or-against-us presidency, all American voters deserve to hear a nuanced debate — right now and through the general campaign — about how each candidate will combat terrorism, protect civil liberties, address the housing crisis and end the war in Iraq.
It is getting to be time for the superdelegates to do what the Democrats had in mind when they created superdelegates: settle a bloody race that cannot be won at the ballot box. Mrs. Clinton once had a big lead among the party elders, but has been steadily losing it, in large part because of her negative campaign. If she is ever to have a hope of persuading these most loyal of Democrats to come back to her side, let alone win over the larger body of voters, she has to call off the dogs.
 
Thought you guys would be interested in this. This is the NY Times-the paper that endorsed Senator Clinton over Obama in the NY Primary a few months ago.

If the NY Times was serious, they should withdraw their endorsement.
 
Two fantastic articles this morning. The first is a column from Politico:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9839.html

Run, Hillary, Run.

Run in Guam, run in North Carolina, run in Indiana. Run in each and every one of the nine contests that are left.

Then make some states do their contests over.

Should Barack Obama’s victory in Vermont really count? I don’t think Vermont is actually a state. I think it is technically a socialist republic. Have somebody check this out.

And Obama’s victory in Alaska? Are you kidding me? They let caribou vote in Alaska.

And do some other stuff that levels the playing field: Raise the voting age to 65 in all the remaining contests, for instance.

You do great with this group, Sen. Clinton. Younger people don’t really care about who becomes president anyway. All they want to do is go on this World Wide Interweb thing that they keep talking about.
And while you are at it, Senator, cap all salaries at $50,000 a year, take away all college degrees and give everybody a gun. The demographics are clear: That is your base vote.

Also, no men get to vote unless they have a note from a woman saying they are mentally competent. (Good luck with that!)

And, Sen. Clinton, keep portraying yourself as a sympathetic underdog. That works much better than when you were the inevitable overlord.

In Haverford, Pa., last Thursday, you told the crowd: “Just knock on the door and say, ‘You know, she’s really nice.’ Or you could say it another way: ‘She’s not as bad as you think.’”

It is a theme that worked in Pennsylvania and will work elsewhere. I can see the billboards now: “Hillary Clinton. Not as Bad as You Think.”

But do not give up the kitchen sink stuff, Senator. Make it a Good Hillary/Bad Hillary kind of campaign.

Good Hillary talks about the dreamy, gooey, feel-good stuff, like when, in your victory speech from Philadelphia Tuesday night, you said: “We are, in many ways, all on this journey together to create an America that embraces every last one of us. ... I believe with all of my heart that together we will turn promises into action, words will become solutions, hope will become reality.”

But Bad Hillary can’t go away. You have to have the Hillary who says Obama is “elitist” and “demeaning,” and you have to keep running ads that portray him as the guy who won’t be able to protect us from the Great Depression, Pearl Harbor, long lines at the gas pump, Osama bin Laden or ringing telephones.

And speaking of Osama bin Laden, isn’t he a Muslim? And didn’t Bad Hillary say Obama was not a Muslim “as far as I know”? Keep up that subtle stuff. It is gold.

And then, of course, bribe the superdelegates. These are the 794 party insiders who have one standard for all their decisions in life: “What’s in it for me?”

So offer them something. You know how many interstate rest stops there are? They have to be named for somebody. And promise the holdouts that they will be appointed ambassador to Bermuda. It doesn’t matter that they all can’t be ambassador to Bermuda, because we don’t have an ambassador to Bermuda. (Say it was Bill’s idea.)

And even if you can’t get ahead in the delegate count, don’t stop running!

Go to the convention in Denver and chain yourself to the front door of the Pepsi Center and refuse to leave unless every resident of Florida and Michigan — not just the rogue delegates but all 26 million residents! — is seated inside and gets to cast a ballot for you.

What’s the worst that could happen? Howard Dean comes out and bites you on the ankle? Forget about it. I could carve a tougher guy out of tofu.

But most of all, Sen. Clinton, never give up, never surrender.

And remember: There’s always 2012.

The second is from DailyKos and discusses what Obama needs to do in order to "seal the deal":

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/24/02723/7112/307/502085

I won't quote that one, as there are a number of charts and formatting things that wouldn't come over very well. But the gist of it is that Obama really needs to get only 43 more super-delegates before he can effectively say that Hillary has NO viable path to the nomination at all.
 
wvrevy ~ any word from the Obama campaign on your ad idea? I'm crossing my fingers they run with it.
 
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