People who are honestly analyzing direct vs. resale are doing so on existing resorts in the present day and looking at the options. From there it becomes an issue of patience and the value one places on convenience vs. savings. To purchase BLT today at $165 direct or $95 resale is a legitimate conversation to have. Whether or not to purchase BLT today for $95 vs. $107 six years ago is not. I can see how you would use those numbers to make your argument, but it is not an honest analysis because it is not comparing numbers in the same time period. Simply put, when people purchased BLT for $107 in 2008, they did not know what it would be worth in 2014. Sure, one could speculate, but there was no certainty. To now discuss that analysis assuming there was certainty is fallacious, in my opinion.
^This in so many ways. We just placed a bid on OKW. After number crunching, we figured 50-60 a point was much more reasonable than 165 a point. Should we have purchased OKW back in 1991 when it first when on sale? Yeah... if they would've sold to a 13 year old kid with a paper route!
Now that I am in my thirties, financially stable, and in a position to purchase a DVC membership, I look at the numbers that are current. I was not worried about 5 years ago, or even 10 years ago what they were worth because I wasn't in the market to purchase.
The cost of VGF at 165 a point and the points per day to stay there was higher than any other WDW DVC resort. That meant for a family of 6 we needed a hefty initial buy in. 200+ points and that's borrowing points from future stays for a week trip.
Now, VGF doesn't rev my motor all that much. I mean its nice, service at that resort is amazing, but it's not like i HAVE to stay there.
IF we bought at VGF and wanted to stay at another resort we would be essentially paying 165 pp to stay at AKL or BWV or BCV. Which is 60-80 dollars more a point than if i bought at one of those hotels. Not a good investment of points.
Now, our other option was to buy in at a different resort. something with a shorter contract but a value at point price. We found a contract in the 50-60 pp price range (at OKW).
We could buy a 200 point contract 10-15k vs 33k. Sure, we only get it until 2042, but when i think about that, i will be 63 years old at the end and there are always new options that spring up over time!
Sure, I will not have a home base of VGF or Poly or even BLT for that matter. I will end up being a 7 month warrior and try my hand at upgrading to a closer resort.
Will i be sad when I am "stuck" at OKW? No, not at all. In fact, OKW looks like a great home base to me!
Am I willing to sacrifice priority for a difference of $20,000??? Yes Please!