Not drinking the cool aid on resale!!

Discussion in 'DVC-Mousecellaneous' started by Johnny D, Jun 2, 2014.

  1. Johnny D

    Johnny D Earning My Ears

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    I realize that most dvc members on this site, and many others, think resale is the only way to go and give that advice to all that inquire about the process. I agree that resale is great option, but believe there is an important fact overlooked.

    Looking at the DVC resorts in Orlando and California, and looking at there opening sales prices, I really don't see how there is much, if any savings if you buy early when the resort opens. Just a few resort statistical data below:

    OKW 1991 $51 pp 2014 resale around $70 pp

    BWV 1996 $62.75 pp 2014 resale around $80 PP

    WL 2000 $72 pp 2014 resale around $80 pp

    BCV 2002 $80 pp 2014 resale around $95 pp

    BLT 2009 $112-$5 (incentive) $107 pp 2014 resale around $ 95pp

    VGC 2009 $112 pp 2014 resale $135 pp

    Now with VGF going up to $165 a point later this month, and most likely will end up at $175 to $ 185 before it sells out (opened at $145; resale going for around $135), I think the best advise would be to buy DVC direct but early when the resort first goes on sale. You will get the full 50 years, get the full DVC benefits (I know not the best use of points, but like the option) easier process, and in many cases the value will rise. I think mainly the high demand small resorts like VGC, BCV, VGF and soon to be Poly, were and are smart plays for direct buying early.

    It seems right now people are happy to be picking up 2042 to 2054 end date contracts for more or the same money then they were sold for 10 to 20 years ago, and are pounding there chest about the resale market. A little confusing.
     
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  3. bdrobet

    bdrobet Earning My Ears

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    Everything you are saying is right on assuming that one was looking to buy in to DVC at the time that the resorts were being sold originally. I did not even know that DVC existed until a couple of years ago and finally decided to buy in recently. I paid $67 per point resale as opposed to $130 Direct. That is a savings of $11,340 on a 180 point contract. I would much prefer to go back in time to when SSR was sold and buy direct but that is not currently an option (as far as I know).

    Brian
     
  4. supersnoop

    supersnoop DIS Veteran

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    You're neglecting the time value of money, inflation, and opportunity cost. But, yes, "now" is always the best time to buy the brand new resort. If you want an older resort, resale is most often the way to go.
     
  5. disneynutz

    disneynutz DIS Veteran DIS Lifetime Sponsor

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    The buyer needs to weigh the benefit, cost, availability of UY's, contract size, and resort when considering a purchase.

    Most often resale is suggested when a buyer is under the incorrect impression that only direct sales are available.

    :earsboy: Bill
     
  6. Johnny D

    Johnny D Earning My Ears

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    All those factors are still there when you buy 20 years later for more money and lose 40% of the length of the contract. I just think the best value is buying early when resort opens. I would rather buy poly at 180 expiring in 2066 than by at 95 expiring in 2042.
     
  7. Chuck S

    Chuck S DVC Boards Co-Moderator Moderator

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    For a younger person, I see your logic. But if you're a more mature adult with grown children...chances are you'd not live to see the end of your new contract 50 years from now. If you don't have children, or don't want to burden your heirs with the expenses of maintenance fees they may not be able to afford, a short contract may be best for you.

    In my case, I purchased OKW in 1992 when I was 34 years old, and my Mom was also on the contract. We did not extend to 2057 because I have no blood relatives that are young enough to enjoy it. My estate is going to my best friend, or his daughter if he predeceases me. (He is 13 years younger than I am). He, his wife and daughter are all Disney fans...but they can extend the contract after I'm gone if they choose to do so...I may live to see the end of my 2042 contract (I'll be 83) and if I'm still healthy enough to enjoy the parks, I may extend it for my own enjoyment when I turn 80 or so.
     
  8. bakerworld

    bakerworld DIS Veteran

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    Our guide steered us to the new resorts - she said it was the best use of our $ buying direct. Both our first 2 contracts were for new resorts - one was not even open when we bought - plus DVC was offering large incentives. Now BL is selling resale for more that our purchase price.

    We played around with the idea of resale - or I should say, I did. DH maintained resale took too much time and effort for what we were looking at the time. Personally, I think he'd say that no matter what the circumstance but in our instance, for such a small contract (55pt), I agreed.

    IMO, if your new to DVC and/or want a really large contract, which start out with more points than we own over 3 contracts, than re-sale is appropriate. To wholesale push towards resale no matter the contract size I think is irresponsible along with the massive support of SSR because its so inexpensive to own.
     
  9. wildforgoofy

    wildforgoofy Mouseketeer

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    Timing was everything for us. 10 years ago when we thought about DVC for the first time, we decided to build a new house instead. Second time we considered it was when they built BLT, so we took the tour and loved it. Problem was we would have to finance it, and we weren't doing that. Third times a charm as they say, and we're finally buying in through resale with cash at 95$pp BLT. Sure I've lost a few years, but I'm ok with getting a hand me down DVC. ;) So I guess I am beating my chest and drinking the kool aid.
     
  10. Johnny D

    Johnny D Earning My Ears

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    As said in the original post resale is a great option. The point being a lot of people stick a finger in your eye and feel the people who buy direct are foolish. History shows different if you buy early when a new resort goes on sale. I just wanted people to know that. Also I feel that buying bcv at 95 pp with a 2042 ending date may be a bad move. It will, like all contracts be worth zero. So would you have liked to buy vgf at 150 pp with 50 years left or bcv at 95 with 28 years left. I think in 10 years that initial $55 savings won't look so good if u decide you want out. Where as at vgf in 10 years you will be just fine if you want to sell. CONGRATS on your Blt purchase and welcome home!!
     
  11. Lorilais_mommie

    Lorilais_mommie " They can drink pepsi, but they can't pee in the

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    I know what you mean..
    My Dh and I bought into GFV a few months ago.. We are young, and wanted the FULL 50 years..
    And the GFV was really the only resort we have liked in many years.

    Now that being said, this is what happened
    We had planned to buy 200p straight from Disney.

    After lots of reading and questions being answered, we realized that we really only needed 150p from GFV..
    (10 days studio during the value season) with a little buffer I case points change.

    We also used the extra money to buy as many points as we could get AKL resale.. Our reason was every three years we will use those points for my mother and step dad to come with us. Or do an extra trip during during the summer. Since these were more for my parents not us, I didn't mind the contact ending sooner.

    Overall VERY HAPPY with our direct points..
     
  12. Splashboat

    Splashboat Always looking for cheap airfare

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    I should first say that I am not one to criticize anyone for buying direct or resale. I think there are too many personal factors for others to judge someone's decision on this matter.
    However, I am not sure you can make the comparisons you are trying to make.

    You say the average is $80 pp now but you have to mention direct for BWV is $135 if someone wants a direct purchase there. Nobody can go back and buy it for the original price so those are the 2 choices today.

    I also don't think you can compare direct vs. resale with a new resort. You can't buy resale when the resort first opens and I have not seen anyone suggest resale on a new resort within the first year of opening (using GF as an example).
    Perhaps I missed something but I haven't seen it because the prices of GF resale are too close to direct right now. As with all the other resorts, the discrepancy will probably increase with time.

    BTW, if you find a way to go back and purchase at original prices please tell me how because I would love to buy a '63 Vette for $4,000
     
  13. chalee94

    chalee94 <font color=green>I thought all sand was ground up

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    some of that depends on how badly you want to stay at BCV each trip.

    you know what the stock market people say about historical performance...

    the numbers look good now. they did not look quite as good in 2009 or so when prices were dropping and the future looked less optimistic. (a few OKW contracts were sold for $30 or so per pt, IIRC.)

    i would agree that if you have to have a new resort like VGF, you should buy there and direct is most likely the best option. but if you were buying SSR or BWV, resale is a much better choice than direct IMO.

    there is also some concern from time to time that disney will severely cut resale benefits (as other timeshare developers have done in the past) which might hammer resale values. hopefully not, but if they do, it would make sense to buy in low and have less to lose.

    historically, most timeshares have collapsed in value after the initial sale. to date, DVC has bucked that trend. you might be right and resale values for the newer resorts might be stronger than for the 2042 resorts in a decade or so. you roll the dice and take your chances either way...
     
  14. wildforgoofy

    wildforgoofy Mouseketeer

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    Don't get me wrong I would buy in direct if I had the money to do so. I'm not a resale only girl. I would never chastise someone for buying direct, to each their own I say. I must have misunderstood your OP because I thought you wanted to know why someone would opt to buy resale.
    You are right resale is pushed hard in a lot of these forums. But it's generally geared towards people who post questions like, "Wondering if DVC is right for me?" or, "Is DVC worth the money?". Those types of posts beg to be answered with buy resale. If anyone posts that they want the newest DVC resort it's always answered with buy direct. Everything I've read about VGF has been to buy direct over resale. In essence it looks like they all agree with you. I always miss that opening sale price, and it really chaps my hiney that someone got a better price then me. Lol
    Thanks for the Welcome Home! We're super excited!! :)
     
  15. disneynutz

    disneynutz DIS Veteran DIS Lifetime Sponsor

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    Another reason to buy new resorts is that during the selling phase, the resort gets extra attention, extra cleaning and maintenance in the common areas, landscaping gets refreshed more often, the resort is made into a show place.

    :earsboy: Bill
     
  16. Johnny D

    Johnny D Earning My Ears

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    I respect everyone's point of view but some of your statements are totally missing the point. I am making a simple statement of fact that since the inception of DVC buying at the early price when a resort opens is just as good a decision based on historical price data as buying resale for the same resort years down the line. Who is comparing resale vs. Direct once the resort is sold out? I think your are spinning my initial point and trying to take the conversation someplace else.

    As far as your corvette analogy. ...don't really get your point. My statement is for current buyers going forward to see how dvc has historically performed when they make a buying decision. I have been hearing the same stuff since 1999 when I bought bwv. ......your crazy...The price is to high. My brother bought bcv at 80 in 2002 and people were saying your crazy it's way to high. I bought gfv at 150 pp and guess what...I'm crazy it's way to high. I guess we will see.
     
  17. wildforgoofy

    wildforgoofy Mouseketeer

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    I hope you're wrong because I REALLY want to buy in 4 years from now at 95$pp. HA! What do you say? A little wager.... Over/under ;) ;).
     
  18. lovin'fl

    lovin'fl DIS Veteran

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    Well, we first bought in 2006 when SSR was selling new. It was going for about $97pp direct but we opted to buy OKW resale to get more points for our $. Now SSR goes for about $68-73 resale and has been even lower at times...so had we bought SSR direct we would take a loss to resell. We also would take a loss if resold our OKW right now as we paid $76pp but it wouldn't be that big of a loss.

    Also we are folks who recently added on BWV direct...paying $123pp. We won't get that back and it does expire relatively soon...compared to BLT or VGF. But it is so worth it for us to lock in a standard view room...especially for Food and Wine.
     
  19. Minniesgal

    Minniesgal DIS Veteran

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    Agree that the time value if money an important parameter has been neglected

    Also I think VGF is a specific case and should t be generalised. Firstly there are resales advertised at $135 but they have been advertised for a while people are not biting and in not surprised at that level of savings people are just as well buying direct. Secondly VGF is a small resort and WDW flagship I'd expect it to keep its value much like vgc but I do not think the same holds for SSR AKV or BLT which are much bigger resorts
     
  20. Johnny D

    Johnny D Earning My Ears

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    Lol and yes I will bet the house on the over!!! Better than that how about betting a kitchen sink ice cream sundae at beaches and cream?
     
  21. Johnny D

    Johnny D Earning My Ears

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    I feel the larger resorts not near a park are a different commodity. But point well taken. I love the.boardwalk!!! Congratulations!
     

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