I haven't browsed in quite some time, clearly I missed the hike in prices. Wow! Good thing I'm not ready to buy yet! I am thinking this has been asked several times, but is the general consensus that prices will drop again in a year or two?
I haven't browsed in quite some time, clearly I missed the hike in prices. Wow! Good thing I'm not ready to buy yet! I am thinking this has been asked several times, but is the general consensus that prices will drop again in a year or two?
Many of these contracts will expire sooner than the others. If they are not sold / offered to extend before their expiration, they expire worthless.
So the answer to your question is YES. They will not always stay this expensive when they have less years left.
The question is, when?
I haven't browsed in quite some time, clearly I missed the hike in prices. Wow! Good thing I'm not ready to buy yet! I am thinking this has been asked several times, but is the general consensus that prices will drop again in a year or two?
Prices will drop the next time the US economy tanks. Will that happen in the next year or two? I would not bet on it.
I will say that this is probably the correct approach for those who are looking for something specific or looking to own within a certain time frame. I have tried using my bargain hunter methods and have had six of eight contracts taken back since February. Now the two that I did get were great deals, but it's only a good deal if you manage to get the contract, which I failed to do 75% of the time.
As a first time resale and DVC buyer. I lost out on 3 different contrcts within 4 days. I spoke to a guy at TSS in the AM, called back that afternono to pull the trigger, and gone. Prices have even gone up in the last couple weeks since we completed the contract by 1 or 2 dollars. However, the trade off of 150 dollars a point vs. 85 at some of the classic resorts is a significant difference.
There are far fewer contracts on the market than there once were in the past few years (especially at BWV, BCV, BLT and VWL). So you've learned the first lesson of buying resale -- have a lightning-quick trigger finger. Know what you want to pay and when you see a contract, jump immediately. Waiting even just a few minutes can cost you a deal.
I think, more than economic outlook, is the difference in economic picture now versus 4-5 years ago at any given point in time. The last few years have seen the people who bought in at the end of the RE bubble flooding the market with contracts that they can't afford. The people selling now most likely didn't buy in during the 06-07 timeframe. They probably bought after the collapse, and as such most likely aren't selling because they HAVE to. It looks like the "weak hands" have all sold (more or less), and now the contracts on the market are by and large discretionary sales rather than distressed ones. So there are less of them, and the ones out there aren't as motivated. Couple that with buyers who made it through the collapse ok and now have some cash that they can't find a good investment for, and prices start going up.I tend to agree with Doug, and here's why: the US economy is still in the tank. Unemployment remains at extremely high levels, as they have for the last 5 years or so. Job growth is anemic. Taking into account the number of people who have decided to give up looking for a job, the labor market participation rate is abysmal. Meanwhile, the number of people on food stamps is at an all time high. My point is, we aren't in a booming US economy right now, in fact, a pretty weak one. So while a further drop is possible, things are already not so hot. One wild card is the likely implementation of a law legalizing millions of currently illegal immigrants, which would flood the labor market. But I still think that's more likely to prolong the non-recovery rather than lead to a crash. Of course, this is all just guessing the future...
Many factors influence the resale price of DVC. The macroeconomic environment is indisputably among the most significant, but far from the only one. And who knows, maybe the people leaving the labor market are deciding to spend their time at Disney instead of looking for a job...
my parents just bought 50 more points on the cruise. they said on the cruise during our meeting Disney already has a price hike in the future ready to be set in place. so if you are going to buy now is the time. on our cruise if you bought 100 or more points they gave you a $1000 ship board credit.
I just came on here to post the same thing. I'm looking for another BWV contract with feb use year.
my parents just bought 50 more points on the cruise. they said on the cruise during our meeting Disney already has a price hike in the future ready to be set in place. so if you are going to buy now is the time. on our cruise if you bought 100 or more points they gave you a $1000 ship board credit.
NOW is always the time according to sales people. Every sales person who has tried to sell me something thereby pocketing a commission for themselves had some 'reason' why I should buy right now.
Price increases of direct sales, MF, ticket prices, cash room rates, etc. are baked in the Disney cake. Price increases or decreases in the resale market are less predictable, IMO.