How many contract have you lost to ROFR

[permavac]

My guess? I think they're accumulating them to relaunch a new sales initiative, OKW 45 year contracts. They're in a tough spot right now. All they have to market is AKV (which is having problems due to high fees and location), BLT (expensive) and Aulini (expensive AND off property). And, their new offering is going to be at GF, so it will probably start at a million or so dollars a point.

So they don't really have anything to market to Joe Holiday who wants a reasonably priced DVC membership that is on property (again, not my opinion, but many people complain that AKV is too far removed). I think they're buying back as much of the resort as they possibly can so that they can resell it. But I could be wrong.

Someone on another board mentioned this. It does seem like a likely scenario.

Terri

 

[ELMC]

Someone on another board mentioned this. It does seem like a likely scenario.

Terri

That might have been me. I'm all in on this theory!

 

[DougEMG]

I'm feeling pretty fortunate to have my contracts pass ROFR pretty recently.

25 OKW (Aug) $55, 25 banked '10 pts, all '11 & '12 pts (sub 1/30, passed 2/29)
45 OKW (Aug) $55, 45 banked '10 pts, all '11 & '12 pts (sub 1/30, passed 2/29)
40 OKW (Sep) $55, 40 banked '10 pts, all '11 & '12 pts, buyer pays closing and mf (sub 2/21, passed 3/14)
40 OKW (Sep) $55, 40 banked '10 pts, all '11 & '12 pts, buyer pays closing and mf (sub 2/21, passed 3/14)
70 OKW (Sep) $55, 70 banked '10 pts, all '11 & '12 pts, buyer pays closing and mf (sub 2/21, passed 3/14)
100 OKW (Sep) $55, 100 banked '10 pts, all '11 & '12 pts, buyer pays closing and mf (sub 2/21, passed 3/14)

On another note, I am still waiting to close on the contrcats that passed 3/14

Interesting. I believe someone else said that apr was the start of the new fiscal year for Disney, which probably means fresh money to buy contracts.

 

[AllieV]

I was talking to a selling agent today who said they'd lost two HHI contracts to ROFR this month alone and it's the first they've seen Disney buy back HHI. They were both $38 pp contracts. Also one BWV at $45 pp stripped till 2014 was ROFRd.

The agent said the best deals that Disney won't touch are the ones in bankruptcy. You can get them cheap and Disney doesn't want the hassle. So ask an agent to keep an eye out for those for you.

 

[zavandor]

Also one BWV at $45 pp stripped till 2014 was ROFRd.

I thought that stripped contract were safe from ROFR since Disney should wait that the contract reloads before being able to sell it. It would not make sense financially, but I was clearly wrong.
I'm getting happier every day that I bought a few months ago, it seems that Disney is back on ROFR once again lately.

 

[disneynutz]

I was talking to a selling agent today who said they'd lost two HHI contracts to ROFR this month alone and it's the first they've seen Disney buy back HHI. They were both $38 pp contracts. Also one BWV at $45 pp stripped till 2014 was ROFRd.

The agent said the best deals that Disney won't touch are the ones in bankruptcy. You can get them cheap and Disney doesn't want the hassle. So ask an agent to keep an eye out for those for you.

It's all about the numbers and Disney's plans. Many forget that for Disney, everything is just business, no emotion, no magic, just numbers.

They have to maintain enough inventory to keep DVD busy selling. If they run out of inventory, they aren't making money.

Bill

 

[DougEMG]

I was talking to a selling agent today who said they'd lost two HHI contracts to ROFR this month alone and it's the first they've seen Disney buy back HHI. They were both $38 pp contracts. Also one BWV at $45 pp stripped till 2014 was ROFRd.

I never would have thought that Disney would take a stripped contract back with ROFR. How can they sell a contract that has no points till 2014? Don't they have to get you the current UY points? I'm confused now.

 

[ELMC]

I'm never would have thought that Disney would take a stripped contract back with ROFR. How can they sell a contract that has no points till 2014? Don't they have to get you the current UY points? I'm confused now.

Maybe their unknown master plan extends well out into the future. My prediction, after the huge wave of resale extended OKW contracts, we will start to see BWV extended contracts.

Think about it...with 20 years left on contracts, people are going to start to get nervous. With 10 years left they're all going to hit the panic button. At 5 years, the sky will undoubtedly be falling. If I were the head of DVC, I would try to get out in front of these issues before they become problems.

 

[AllieV]

I never would have thought that Disney would take a stripped contract back with ROFR. How can they sell a contract that has no points till 2014? Don't they have to get you the current UY points? I'm confused now.

My uneducated guess would be that it was because it was selling at $45 per point. The agent told me these two bits of information because a) I was offering $39 pp on HHI so I should know that it could be ROFRd since two prior ones just were at that price, and b) I'd mentioned the stripped-till-'14 BCV I'd seen and wondered if they'd take $50 pp and if it would pass.

 

[Missyrose]

My uneducated guess would be that it was because it was selling at $45 per point. The agent told me these two bits of information because a) I was offering $39 pp on HHI so I should know that it could be ROFRd since two prior ones just were at that price, and b) I'd mentioned the stripped-till-'14 BCV I'd seen and wondered if they'd take $50 pp and if it would pass.

But it makes no sense for Disney, they have to pay the MFs on those points until the contract has points Disney can sell.

 

[princessaloha]

ELMC said: Maybe their unknown master plan extends well out into the future. My prediction, after the huge wave of resale extended OKW contracts, we will start to see BWV extended contracts.

Think about it...with 20 years left on contracts, people are going to start to get nervous. With 10 years left they're all going to hit the panic button. At 5 years, the sky will undoubtedly be falling. If I were the head of DVC, I would try to get out in front of these issues before they become problems.
___

Here's my two cents. Which is probably not worth even that much.

In 2042 OKW will be an aging resort when (currently) most contracts will be ending. Ending contracts mean ending Maintenance Fees. I think Disney is in a bind since few people jumped on their extension offer. I think they have a number/percentage of ownership needed to break even/operating costs to maintain OKW. I think they are going to actively buy back until they reach their numbers. They are probably starting with the lower contracts and will eventually take higher ones until they reach that magical number or close to it. After that they will slow down or stop because in my opinion, they don't need ALL the contracts, which would be expensive. Just enough to guarantee basic maintenance after 2042. Eventually ALL the original contracts will end in 2042, revert back to Disney for FREE, then they can repackage them and sell them direct.

This will also have added benefits for Disney.

1.I think there is some concern with the huge pricing gap between all the resort direct vs resale and especially the soon to be released GF. I think they realize people will start offering/accepting higher prices for OKW now due to concern about lower contracts being ROFR thus closing that gap from resale to direct for OKW and of course GF.

2. I think that most people aren't aware of DVC until they are in the park and jump in hook, line and sinker. Few go home and spend months researching other options. Even the ones who do, still run into the problem that if they don't search for the term "resale" specifically, they almost always will be directed back to Disney direct. So what happens when someone wants to buy but can't afford GF or even BLT direct prices. Disney still wants to make a sell, so how about a lower point resort like OKW at only $100 pp! What a deal. And hey they have plenty in inventory now.

Now the question I'm asking is: How will this affect the prices for OKW non-extended contracts down the road, say in 3-5 years when there are a plethora of extended contracts (considering that with only a few extended contracts to be had right now and they are only about $10-15 more than non-extended)?

As for BWV, well I think there's still time for that as Disney probably wants to see how things go with this current OKW situation.

Again, just my two cents.

 

[Tunseeker1]

Disney can take a stripped contract and put developer points or one use points in the contract to resell it direct. They look at it as a cheap contract, and they can close the deal cheaper then a reseller's title company.

 

[KSL]

Yikes! I didn't realize Disney would be able to add developer or one-time-use points onto a stripped contract, though I did wonder whether anything like that were possible. We're awaiting ROFR on a stripped contract, and now I'm feeling more nervous! I had been hoping we'd make it through since it has nearly no points until 2014. Well, we'll see... Still about 2 weeks to go....

 

[AllieV]

Ksl what is the price per point on that contract? I saw a few stripped ones I'm trying to price.

 

[nolanboys]

Interesting thread. I also agree with the OKW theory. Until the announce another DVC property, the pickings are slim and expensive. They could put a great spin on repackaging OKW points for those that are looking for a cheaper price per point buy in.

 

[KSL]

AllieV asked: Ksl what is the price per point on that contract? I saw a few stripped ones I'm trying to price.

Someone else asked me on a different thread about our price. I was worried I would be jinxing myself but it's a done-deal either way (either goes through ROFR or not - I can't influence what happens at this point!). So may as well put it out there: we're at $57pp. Definitely more than many have paid, and especially considering it's practically point-less rotfl2: ha!) until 2014 but it's less than some I've seen, and it works for us for a variety of reasons. Also, given the lack of availability, all the ROFR activity, and that prices seem to have risen by $5-$8-ish (I'm guessing/generalizing, but they are definitely higher) at this resort in just the past couple of weeks on the few that are available, I'm beginning to feel better about the price....

 

[ELMC]

AllieV asked: Ksl what is the price per point on that contract? I saw a few stripped ones I'm trying to price.

Someone else asked me on a different thread about our price. I was worried I would be jinxing myself but it's a done-deal either way (either goes through ROFR or not - I can't influence what happens at this point!). So may as well put it out there: we're at $57pp. Definitely more than many have paid, and especially considering it's practically point-less rotfl2: ha!) until 2014 but it's less than some I've seen, and it works for us for a variety of reasons. Also, given the lack of availability, all the ROFR activity, and that prices seem to have risen by $5-$8-ish (I'm guessing/generalizing, but they are definitely higher) at this resort in just the past couple of weeks on the few that are available, I'm beginning to feel better about the price....

I may have missed it, but what resort did you buy at?

ETA: Never mind, I just saw it in another thread. Good luck on ROFR!

 

[KSL]

ELMC: you made me laugh! Sorry, I wrote the two of them so close together they were merging in my mind and I wasn't thinking about what info was where! Hopefully someday soon I'll be able to post on the passing ROFR thread and then will try to remember to include all of the details. I think I am losing brain cells daily with this wait! I was pretty good in the beginning, but the closer it gets to 30 the more anxious I get. Still a good 10 days or so to go. Luckily I have the DIS to keep me busy! Well, that and work.....

 

[AllieV]

Wow, I saw two VB contracts ROFRd in the last month. Both were large and both were at $30 pp. Interesting that they're buying those back.

 

[disneynutz]

Wow, I saw two VB contracts ROFRd in the last month. Both were large and both were at $30 pp. Interesting that they're buying those back.

They must have buyers and Disney can break the contracts into smaller ones.

Bill