Disney's $1 billion dollar bet on magical wristband - Wired

[jade1]

My solutions are:
1) to spend around $2.5 billion at DHS spread across 10-12 attractions of varying complexity levels, probably over 2-4 years. Expand animation courtyard with more things for kids and adults to do that are just "playing", provide a short "how to" movie that is 5-10 minutes long, add a small theater with old Disney cartoons that run continuously or every 10 minutes, etc. Expand entire Lucas area with both Indy and Star Wars attractions (2-4 total). Expand Pixar place with 2-4 attractions from Monsters, Incredibles, Up, Brave, WALL-E or Cars. Expand Muppet presence. Add some type of Roger Rabbit attraction. My kids just saw this movie and LOVED it. Come up with an additional attraction or two from Disney vaults - like Herbie, National Treasure, Santa Clause, Bolt, Princess and Frog, Tangled, Tron, or Wreck it Ralph.
2) to spend around $1.5 billion at EPCOT spread across improvements and new attractions over 2-4 years. Energy and IMagination need near complete overhauls. We need the WOnders of Life pavilion to return, even if somewhat different than its original incarnation. Some type of Horizons needs to return. That was a great concept and is sorely missed in EPCOT. Many of the countries need small types of attractions to make it more than a dining extravaganza. Canada needs a log flume tour, Japan could use the oft talked about bullet train ride, Italy would be fantastic with a tour of their cultural identity in some type of boat ride/arial tour, or a Pompeii "adventure", would America be better with an Imax tour of our biggest natural wonders (Grand Canyon, Yellowstone, Yosemite, Hoover Dam, etc.); Germany with a train ride through their castles and countryside, or a matterhorn style mountain ride, and France with a countryside tour by "truck" or omniomover.
3) to spend another $750 million in AK to expand more small rides for families and kids. Mine love the carnival area, but it is still a little intense for my smaller kids. We still need 4-6 small attractions in this park.
4) to spend another $500 million in MK to expand TOmorrowland and Fantasyland (again). There is still a need for more attractions to balance out the number of visitors in this park.

With time, I can come up with more concrete plans if Disney is really interested. However, at around $100 million for a really good attraction, and $250 for an E-ticket, Disney is spending more than just about anyone in the industry for improvements. Some of that is worth the cost, some, not so much. Even if you average $150 million per attraction (I include shows in this), I think you can make huge improvements to these parks (including in capacity) with around a $5.5 billion investment over 5 years. Easy to say, I know. I do realize that is around 2 years of profit for the entire Disney company, so it isn't likely. However, these improvement costs should be getting set aside every year so that it is more palatable to the annual budget. Then you can move forward spending around $500 million each year to upgrade and maintain the facility rather than needing these massive overhauls.

Is this where I also put in for the monorail to visit all major parks?

Totally fine with that-but I already covered the suggestion to "just have WDW spend more money".

I can do better than that-the same things you suggested, just double the amounts WDW should spend.

Yet the only suggested solutions are-WDW should just pay for more rides (and drop prices as well). Well of course they could (and maybe even should), but if they are not (but arguably they are) where are the ideas?

And if the for sure major recession is coming-why would WDW go crazier than what they are planning now?

 

[clsteve]

Well did the rip them apart when deluxe concierge added a 4th last month?

As for spending capital-as I said they could and maybe should, they have no excuse though if guests pay for it.

Breaking things out is exactly what the do at UNI.

Jade, I think recent history has shown that Disney will charge for anything and everything at the merest hint guests would pay for it. If they had the capacity, they already would be - no doubt about that. But, they don't - not even close.

And, the fact that they aren't already charging is the best proof that they don't and won't have that capacity for a very long time. They've already upped FP percentage allocations as far as they dare to in order to seemingly have just enough to go around - and on events and attractions that really don't deserve them.

Plus, it's just not feasible logistically or business-wise to charge for a single attraction. That wouldn't be magical in any shape or form......

 

[jade1]

Jade, I think recent history has shown that Disney will charge for anything and everything at the merest hint guests would pay for it.

I think many guests would pay for additional FP+, so we can disagree I guess.

 

[Alfalfa]

I think many guests would pay for additional FP+, so we can disagree I guess.

Charging for extra FP's or for a specific ride experience? Sounds like a Six Flags model to me - pay to get in the park and then pay again to bungee jump or ride go-karts.

I don't think WDW wants to be like Six Flags. Maybe that's one reason they did away with the original ticket books.

 

[Cormoran]

Charging for extra FP's or for a specific ride experience? Sounds like a Six Flags model to me - pay to get in the park and then pay again to bungee jump or ride go-karts.

I don't think WDW wants to be like Six Flags. Maybe that's one reason they did away with the original ticket books.

Well, if they don't want to be like Six Flags why haven't they done any improvements in DHS or Epcot?

 

[Alfalfa]

Well, if they don't want to be like Six Flags why haven't they done any improvements in DHS or Epcot?

Because Six Flags added new attractions in most of the parks this past year?

 

[Cormoran]

Because Six Flags added new attractions in most of the parks this past year?

excellent point!

 

[jade1]

Try not to get hung up on "one". That's only one "narrow" example. Can be the Avatar package, or AK plus package. Fall season package. Deluxe package. Star Wars package. DVC purchase adds 2 FP+ per day. There can be many ways to build revenue for expansion. But I do appreciate all the great ideas out there.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I think many guests would pay for additional FP+, so we can disagree I guess.

I think clsteve is actually agreeing with that point. That the only reason that *isn't* being done is because they don't have the capacity to do so. They *know* they could sell it, but they aren't because the capacity isn't there to make doing so feasible.

At least that was my reading of his comment. @clsteve, please feel free to correct me if I read that incorrectly

 

[clsteve]

I think clsteve is actually agreeing with that point. That the only reason that *isn't* being done is because they don't have the capacity to do so. They *know* they could sell it, but they aren't because the capacity isn't there to make doing so feasible.

At least that was my reading of his comment. @clsteve, please feel free to correct me if I read that incorrectly

Correct you? that sums it up much better than I explained it.

Angel, you should QA all of my posts, because I just seem to have no ability to deal with this black and white, one side or the other, hate it love it, kinda thing.

It can't be all Pixie Dust, or all Pitchforks, all of the time.

At the end of the day this is a business which makes a considerable amount of profit by playing on emotions - positively and negatively.

But still a business that profits on Passion. But, Passion doesn't change a 10K or increase finite capacity.....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Somebody go back and count how many times on this thread, and then on the disboards-"not enough capacity" is complained about.

Yet the only suggested solutions are-WDW should just pay for more rides (and drop prices as well). Well of course they could (and maybe even should), but if they are not (but arguably they are) where are the ideas?

And if the for sure major recession is coming-why would WDW go crazier than what they are planning now?

Officially...

I don't think they have any plans to pay for new rides to be included in their already exhorbinant ticket prices...at least not enough to combat park stagnation. As many have pointed out here - they are currently down rides and experiences in raw numbers from 2000 and double the prices.

And realistically - there's little Wall Street incentive for this management to do so.

Do I have to be happy about that? Not at all...because like it or not - that is not how they built wdw (or any park) and made it great. Even when they were struggling pre-Eisner...Disney never took a "that's enough" approach.

It seems that they are close to that policy now...if not there.

The recent rash of "exclusive" tours and dessert parties that offer little to nothing that wasnt already available to almost every ticketed customer for years...but rather sell because they exploit the brands and play to customers overcharged sense of vanity.

Good business?...based on their profits - yes.

Wise business? That's a harder claim to make.

Again...canaries in the coal mine.

As far as a recession...take a few minutes and look at college debt and consumer debt in just the US...or don't if you haven't eaten breakfast yet. Economic burst/crash is almost a certainty.
Not to even get into "modern" economies like brazil and most of Western Europe...who are leveraged beyond reasonable limits and are basically built on a box of dynamite in a lightning storm.

My goal/hope is not to avoid recessions anymore...because they are guaranteed. It's to just survive them.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Well did the rip them apart when deluxe concierge added a 4th last month?

As for spending capital-as I said they could and maybe should, they have no excuse though if guests pay for it.

Breaking things out is exactly what the do at UNI.

I'm sorry...I have to laugh at the use of the term "deluxe concierge"... Even if it is the official term.

It's the biggest joke in travel history...perhaps.

And that was before the online system (with rationing and limits) that you pre-schedule yourself from a phone app.

Sorry... Daydreaming here...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Maybe because they want to earn as much money as they can before anything changes. Many companies are heavily about short-term profits nowadays.

Or maybe they have big plans and we will all be amazed at the wonder of it all. Does that sound as phony to everyone else as it does to me?

Bingo...excellent!

It's not just a Disney problem. It's a societal/global one.

You know who i blame?
Us... All if us - who were lulled into complacency as the average quality of life ( in the US) was undermined for cheap labor - called "globalization" by snake economists on the take by slime such as Larry summers and Greenspan...

All the while we rewarded them but running to walmart to buy a $19 VCR.

Not just a Disney problem at all...but very discouraging when they fall to it...because they never had to.

 

[jade1]

I think clsteve is actually agreeing with that point. That the only reason that *isn't* being done is because they don't have the capacity to do so. They *know* they could sell it, but they aren't because the capacity isn't there to make doing so feasible.

At least that was my reading of his comment. @clsteve, please feel free to correct me if I read that incorrectly

That was the point-increase capacity.

If you think folks won't pay for a Tron FP+ then we can disagree...and "wish" Tron would have been built.

 

[jade1]

At the end of the day this is a business which makes a considerable amount of profit by playing on emotions - positively and negatively.

But still a business that profits on Passion. But, Passion doesn't change a 10K or increase finite capacity.....

Yep, so thinking of a way to add capacity with the most profit.

 

[jade1]

I'm sorry...I have to laugh at the use of the term "deluxe concierge"... Even if it is the official term.

It's the biggest joke in travel history...perhaps..

I know it's just a term, but folks are paying it.

I'm guilty. I will pay for BC over a free stay at Four Seasons. It's just what we like/want. Can stay at Four Seasons anywhere else.

 

[jade1]

Officially...

I don't think they have any plans to pay for new rides to be included in their already exhorbinant ticket prices...at least not enough to combat park stagnation. As many have pointed out here - they are currently down rides and experiences in raw numbers from 2000 and double the prices.

And realistically - there's little Wall Street incentive for this management to do so.

Do I have to be happy about that? Not at all...because like it or not - that is not how they built wdw (or any park) and made it great. Even when they were struggling pre-Eisner...Disney never took a "that's enough" approach.

It seems that they are close to that policy now...if not there.

The recent rash of "exclusive" tours and dessert parties that offer little to nothing that wasnt already available to almost every ticketed customer for years...but rather sell because they exploit the brands and play to customers overcharged sense of vanity.

Good business?...based on their profits - yes.

Wise business? That's a harder claim to make.

Again...canaries in the coal mine.

As far as a recession...take a few minutes and look at college debt and consumer debt in just the US...or don't if you haven't eaten breakfast yet. Economic burst/crash is almost a certainty.
Not to even get into "modern" economies like brazil and most of Western Europe...who are leveraged beyond reasonable limits and are basically built on a box of dynamite in a lightning storm.

My goal/hope is not to avoid recessions anymore...because they are guaranteed. It's to just survive them.

I really agree with pretty much all of this, kinda arguing to argue sorry.

But would you really drop 4 Billion into rides right now with what you just said?

And I'm still not seeing any other ideas.

 

[ThurlFan]

But would you really drop 4 Billion into rides right now with what you just said?

I think if you add up what they're spending in AK right now along with what's realistically needed at Epcot and DHS you'd come pretty close to that figure.

Honestly, it's to that point mainly because they kept kicking the can down the road on Epcot for over a decade.

And even at that, the Avatar expansion is basically just building out the space that was supposed to be part of the park when it opened 25 years ago.

To your question above - right now I would not lay out the full $4B, because of the need to recoup some of the $$$ that was sunk into MDE/FP+ The real problem is they put the cart before the horse - they should have spent on the buildup of attractions first, then implemented FP+ when there were plenty of options at the three non-MK parks.

 

[mom2rtk]

I think if you add up what they're spending in AK right now along with what's realistically needed at Epcot and DHS you'd come pretty close to that figure.

Honestly, it's to that point mainly because they kept kicking the can down the road on Epcot for over a decade.

And even at that, the Avatar expansion is basically just building out the space that was supposed to be part of the park when it opened 25 years ago.

To your question above - right now I would not lay out the full $4B, because of the need to recoup some of the $$$ that was sunk into MDE/FP+ The real problem is they put the cart before the horse - they should have spent on the buildup of attractions first, then implemented FP+ when there were plenty of options at the three non-MK parks.

Absolutely spot on!

 

[jade1]

It's interesting how the general public is out of their minds with debt, but WDW should do it.

People have certain amount of money to spend. They've looked at Disney, and have found value even in the face of increasing prices. The rising food and ticket prices only serve to prove my point. People are willing to pay the burden despite the hikes because they find value in the product. More then ever before guests are willing to deploy funds on Disney vacations. Disney's profits have grown faster then consumer spending and economic growth. This points out that now guests are actually spending more then they did pre recession. People find value in Disney vacations.

Because consumer debt is rampant...forming a bubble...that will burst and the bill will come due.

Disney has expertly positioned itself to have their parks essentially wiped out by it...as what's left of the "middle class" will be destroyed and that is the core Disney park clientele.

I hope it never gets here...but that is foolhardy...frankly.

They're buying their vacations on credit... Not saving in advance...

Do you honestly believe these are all "financially sound, educated, rationale, savers" going on these trips?

As far as a recession...take a few minutes and look at college debt and consumer debt in just the US...or don't if you haven't eaten breakfast yet. Economic burst/crash is almost a certainty.
Not to even get into "modern" economies like brazil and most of Western Europe...who are leveraged beyond reasonable limits and are basically built on a box of dynamite in a lightning storm.

My goal/hope is not to avoid recessions anymore...because they are guaranteed. It's to just survive them.

But for WDW:

Maybe because they want to earn as much money as they can before anything changes.

Bingo...excellent!

It's not just a Disney problem. It's a societal/global one.

You know who i blame?
Us... All if us - who were lulled into complacency as the average quality of life ( in the US) was undermined for cheap labor - called "globalization" by snake economists on the take by slime such as Larry summers and Greenspan...

All the while we rewarded them but running to walmart to buy a $19 VCR.

Not just a Disney problem at all...but very discouraging when they fall to it...because they never had to.