Disney Cruise Line Announces Plans to Build Two New Ships

[Rogillio]

That they will build additional ships is not so far-fetched. With the high occupancy levels they are currently seeing and the continually rising prices semingly having no effect on occupancy. I can pretty positively say that they have to be considering more ships, that would only make good business sense. They were very happy with Meyer Werft, so I would expect them to go back to them for more new builds if possible, however MW's build books are full for at least the next three years building Norwegian and Royal Caribbean ships. So even if Disney gets in line now, the earliest they could take delivery of a new ship would be about 2016-2018. They may not announce anything for a while yet, but I would bet a pretty good sum of Disney Dollars, that we will see a legitimate announcement like this within the next year or two.

Totally agree. There is no reason to think Disney has saturated the market with Disney cruise ships.....especially when the entire fleet is in the Western hemisphere. Dinsey has made great inroads in Japan, China and Hong Kong and there are billions of people in China and India and SE Asia that would love to take a Disney cruise. And there are lots of Americans who would love to take an Asian cruise with Disney.

Thinking Disney is going to limit their fleet to 4 ships is like thinking Walmart is going to stop building new store.

20 times more people trust their vacations to Disney than with all the cruise lines in the world combined! DCL will grow. It's just a matter of how quickly.

 

[maria-fan-22]

I definitely think DCL knows the can grow, they just have I make sure they don't grow too fast. There is a reason Disney doesn't make incredibly large investments on a yearly basis, it's all based on feasibility studies and market studies. Lots of research goes into things before Disney decides to buy something for $900000000.

But as for ships, I would like to see something smaller than the Dream and Fantasy. And maybe less of a focus on Pixar?

 

[moomy-san]

If true

Has anyone noticed their launch date of 2018 and 2019 mark the 20th anniversary of the Magic and Wonder. Those ships will be getting tired at that point and replacements would make sense.

The older ships would serve smaller markets like Asia, Alaska and maybe a Hawaii based cruise under a US flag.

Captain Fabian said that he expects the classic ships to last much longer than 20 years, because they are very well maintained compared to other cruise lines.

 

[Rogillio]

I definitely think DCL knows the can grow, they just have I make sure they don't grow too fast. There is a reason Disney doesn't make incredibly large investments on a yearly basis, it's all based on feasibility studies and market studies. Lots of research goes into things before Disney decides to buy something for $900000000.
But as for ships, I would like to see something smaller than the Dream and Fantasy. And maybe less of a focus on Pixar?

Exactly. No one can really say if they will or will not be adding more ships to the fleet. If we did know and disclosed it, we'd likely go to jail for corporate espionage. It's fun to speculate and play arm-chair-CEO but we don't see all the cards....

Having said that, it is my opinion that DCL will add ships over the years and the fleet we see 30 years from now will be vastly different than the fleet we see now.

In 1975 when the opened WDW in Orlando I don't think anyone thought they'd grow into the 25,000 acres they now occupy.....well, maybe Walt did but I didn't see it coming.

 

[Rogillio]

Captain Fabian said that he expects the classic ships to last much longer than 20 years, because they are very well maintained compared to other cruise lines.

Agree. In 1944 the USS Missouri was commissioned....she was decommissioned in 1992. If a ship is maintained, she can last a LONG time. My granddaddy had a the same hammer for 60 years - he said he replaced the head once and the handle 3 times. ;-)

 

[DillWaters]

My granddaddy had a the same hammer for 60 years - he said he replaced the head once and the handle 3 times. ;-)

Ship of Theseus question: was it the still the same hammer then?

 

[Rogillio]

Ship of Theseus question: was it the still the same hammer then?

Wow, never knew it had a name! Thanks for post this.

As for a ship....at what point does it become more cost effective to scrap the ship and buy a new one vs refurbishment? I'm sure great studies have been conducted to determine this. So many factors....including taxes, depreciation, obsolecance, style.

On a purely cost basis, it NEVER makes sense to buy a NEW car. A used car can have a blown engine and transmission and it would still be cheaper to put a new engine and tranny in the car than to buy a new one. But at some point we make the decision to get rid of the old headache and get a new(er) vehicle.

I would love to see a cruiseline's analysis of this.

 

[jdb in AZ]

Princess sells their older ships to smaller cruise-lines (probably european cruise-lines) then builds new ships. I don't know what the criteria is for "retiring" one of their ships, but they don't wait for them to become scrap heaps.

American Hawaii cruise line, which went out of business when tourism took a nose dive after 9/11 -- had two ships, one of which was used for the filming of "An Affair to Remember." That ship was being towed to the scrap heap but foundered, so the towing vessel cut her loose and let her have a fitting burial at sea instead of being cut into scraps. I don't know what the scrap metal would have been worth, but I can't help thinking melting her down would be like an ol gray mare becoming dog food.

 

[Justacruiser]

Wow, never knew it had a name! Thanks for post this.

As for a ship....at what point does it become more cost effective to scrap the ship and buy a new one vs refurbishment? I'm sure great studies have been conducted to determine this. So many factors....including taxes, depreciation, obsolecance, style.

On a purely cost basis, it NEVER makes sense to buy a NEW car. A used car can have a blown engine and transmission and it would still be cheaper to put a new engine and tranny in the car than to buy a new one. But at some point we make the decision to get rid of the old headache and get a new(er) vehicle.

I would love to see a cruiseline's analysis of this.

A new car for us is different than a new car for Disney. This CAN be a relatively easy financial question. They will depreciate the value of the ship over time, add factor costs for maintenance and upkeep. They also look at bottom line DCL financial statements. They will want to ensure that investments to the bottom line, like adding new ships is subtracted from the gross profit. You have to also factor increase or decrease of fillable rooms. The more ships they own, the easier it will be to take out a ship. But, with 4 ships they need all of them sailing. With 4 ships, 1 removed could impact sells by up to 25%. If they add 2 ships for a total of 6, the overall loss of cash flow could be reduced to about 15%.

At what point would you get rid of the car that is paid off, looks nice, and has minimal upkeep.

One point might be when the inovation of other cruise lines, forces you to come up with something new and abandon.

It's like the expansions at WDW and other parks. Do they truly need new stuff??? No, but they continue to invest their profits into new INOVATIONS.

IMHHOO

 

[jrabbit]

Someone suggested we talk about what we would like to see on the "New New" ships.

They need to FIX Evolution / The Tube!!!

Yep, its pretty cool to look at - AND they ARE proud of it. But they screwed it up!!!

When there is a popular nighttime performer, you can't see from the back at all. They need to do a better job of creating "Tiers" even if there was a stage to perform on. We were late to a show one night and even standing up in the booths in the back we could not see. They have those stinking tall tables and chairs in the "second layer" of viewing. (In my mind there are about 4 layers of seating - from the front row to the booths in the back). They should be "behind" the booths in the back.

Rockin' Bar D and Wavebands at least have a stage for performers to do their shows on.

Evolution / The Tube are a more "intimate" experience that the Walt Disney Theater, because the performers can "come out into the audience" and its a smaller venue that is appropriate for late night acts, but the WDT is better at giving everyone a chance to actually see the performer(s).

 

[Rogillio]

A new car for us is different than a new car for Disney. This CAN be a relatively easy financial question. They will depreciate the value of the ship over time, add factor costs for maintenance and upkeep. They also look at bottom line DCL financial statements. They will want to ensure that investments to the bottom line, like adding new ships is subtracted from the gross profit. You have to also factor increase or decrease of fillable rooms. The more ships they own, the easier it will be to take out a ship. But, with 4 ships they need all of them sailing. With 4 ships, 1 removed could impact sells by up to 25%. If they add 2 ships for a total of 6, the overall loss of cash flow could be reduced to about 15%.

At what point would you get rid of the car that is paid off, looks nice, and has minimal upkeep.

One point might be when the inovation of other cruise lines, forces you to come up with something new and abandon.

It's like the expansions at WDW and other parks. Do they truly need new stuff??? No, but they continue to invest their profits into new INOVATIONS.

IMHHOO

20,000 legues under the sea ride at WDW is a good example. I'm sure maintenacne costs were high for that ride due to rust and corrosion...and it was a 'slow' ride with limited capacity so they were not getting much bang for the buck. Likewise the skyway to Tommorrowland....only a handful of participants, high liabily/safety costs.....retired.

I agree DCL will need to keep up with industry and with technology. I think they can do that thru refurb to a large extent.

I think Disney does a good job responding to 'demand'. Which is why I expect them to announce new ships in the near future.

 

[mickey2000]

From Vacation to go:

"Cruise ships have a life cycle like anything else. They are generally at their peak relative to the competition on the day they are launched. If they are maintained at the highest standards, they can still be beautiful and immaculate after 20 or 30 years. But new cruise ships get better and better all the time, and sooner or later, older ships become non-competitive with new builds in terms of technology and design. Eventually, all ships become non-viable in the same way that a very nice, old house eventually becomes a tear-down."

 

[Justacruiser]

20,000 legues under the sea ride at WDW is a good example. I'm sure maintenacne costs were high for that ride due to rust and corrosion...and it was a 'slow' ride with limited capacity so they were not getting much bang for the buck. Likewise the skyway to Tommorrowland....only a handful of participants, high liabily/safety costs.....retired.

I agree DCL will need to keep up with industry and with technology. I think they can do that thru refurb to a large extent.

I think Disney does a good job responding to 'demand'. Which is why I expect them to announce new ships in the near future.

Yea, the problem wth rides like the 20,000 leagues is that the equipment stops and that about 20 people were on at a time. Seems like long ago.....

DISNEY is getting very good at creating rides and attractions that keep you and the flow of traffic moving at all times. Some rides like the Safari ride at AK, It's A Small World, will never be fully automated, but I can continue to see the trend for non-stopping rides to maximize customer flow.

 

[maria-fan-22]

Captain Fabian said that he expects the classic ships to last much longer than 20 years, because they are very well maintained compared to other cruise lines.

Cruise ships should last around 50 years in total life. The Magic and Wonder should be with DCL for at least 15-20 more years.

Someone suggested we talk about what we would like to see on the "New New" ships.

They need to FIX Evolution / The Tube!!!

Yep, its pretty cool to look at - AND they ARE proud of it. But they screwed it up!!!

When there is a popular nighttime performer, you can't see from the back at all. They need to do a better job of creating "Tiers" even if there was a stage to perform on. We were late to a show one night and even standing up in the booths in the back we could not see. They have those stinking tall tables and chairs in the "second layer" of viewing. (In my mind there are about 4 layers of seating - from the front row to the booths in the back). They should be "behind" the booths in the back.

Rockin' Bar D and Wavebands at least have a stage for performers to do their shows on.

Evolution / The Tube are a more "intimate" experience that the Walt Disney Theater, because the performers can "come out into the audience" and its a smaller venue that is appropriate for late night acts, but the WDT is better at giving everyone a chance to actually see the performer(s).

I agree, it's a very large space without good sight lines. It's too oblong to be good for sight lines. They also need to get chairs that people can sit upon without risk of sliding out.

 

[mickey2000]

Cruise ships should last around 50 years in total life. The Magic and Wonder should be with DCL for at least 15-20 more years. :

50 YEARS



From Vacation to go:

"Cruise ships have a life cycle like anything else. They are generally at their peak relative to the competition on the day they are launched. If they are maintained at the highest standards, they can still be beautiful and immaculate after 20 or 30 years. But new cruise ships get better and better all the time, and sooner or later, older ships become non-competitive with new builds in terms of technology and design. Eventually, all ships become non-viable in the same way that a very nice, old house eventually becomes a tear-down."

 

[maria-fan-22]

50 YEARS



From Vacation to go:

"Cruise ships have a life cycle like anything else. They are generally at their peak relative to the competition on the day they are launched. If they are maintained at the highest standards, they can still be beautiful and immaculate after 20 or 30 years. But new cruise ships get better and better all the time, and sooner or later, older ships become non-competitive with new builds in terms of technology and design. Eventually, all ships become non-viable in the same way that a very nice, old house eventually becomes a tear-down."

"Immaculate" is different than working life... eventually humans are no longer immaculate but still are capable of work.

 

[Rogillio]

The last B52 airplane was built in 1962....85 of them remain in service. It is expected they will continue to fly as out into 2040 and beyond.

Never underestimate the value of maintence and refurbishment.

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

The oldest active ocean passenger ship is nearly 60 years old now. She is rather famous as well, after having a *run in* with the Andrea Doria. Her name now is the *Athena*, anyone guess at her original name?

But as noted before, most cruise liners have a 30 year life span as a 1st rater (meaning in the prime North American and European service). However that does require excellent maintenance and care.

That 30 year figure could be longer now as most all cruise liner today are diesel electric powered and have a longer life span then steam powered vessels and the maintenance/replacement costs are less.

AKK

 

[Silverfox97]

The oldest active ocean passenger ship is nearly 60 years old now. She is rather famous as well, after having a *run in* with the Andrea Doria. Her name now is the *Athena*, anyone guess at her original name?

AKK

The Stockholm!!!

Sent from my iPhone using DISBoards

 

[E ticket rider]

The oldest active ocean passenger ship is nearly 60 years old now. She is rather famous as well, after having a *run in* with the Andrea Doria. Her name now is the *Athena*, anyone guess at her original name?

But as noted before, most cruise liners have a 30 year life span as a 1st rater (meaning in the prime North American and European service). However that does require excellent maintenance and care.

That 30 year figure could be longer now as most all cruise liner today are diesel electric powered and have a longer life span then steam powered vessels and the maintenance/replacement costs are less.

AKK

She was named MS Stockholm when she accidentally sent the Andrea Doria to the bottom on a foggy night.

Also, the QE2 was 40 years old when she retired. Monarch of the Seas just left RCCL's fleet yesterday after 22 years and will serve plenty more for RCI's smaller lines. She's headed to Freeport for some TLC and will serve as Monarch for Pullmantur Cruises. 20 years is nothing for a well maintained cruise ship.