Average Day at MK- Rope Drop, Crowds, and Wait Times

[WillAustin]

My own personal experience will matter far more to me than any average wait time. Similar to the concept that people using late FPs at the end of the day didn't change the total number of riders allowed in a day but it did make the standby line longer later in the day, the average doesn't necessarily have a predictable effect on each individual experience. And anyway, nothing about my trips is average.

 

[wisblue]

With the reports of inaccurate posted wait times on both sides (both higher and lower waits than posted), I would disagree with this. I just don't feel they are reliable any more. And they seem to be less reliable now than they were in the past (from numerous discussions here anyway), so I don't even know that comparing posted wait times is really an apples to apples comparison anymore. I certainly don't take any issue with people using them for comparisons - as mesaboy pointed out, there is precious little data to work from in the first place, so I'm all for using what's available. But I do find people's experiences - both positive and negative - equally valuable in creating strategies to best use the system Disney has put in place.

That's what I love about the DIS so much - people coming and sharing what did and didn't work for them, helping each other, and sharing a love of Disney. Data just doesn't do that.

I was referring to anecdotal observations about posted wait times.

If someone can say that "the posted wait time was X, but we actually waited Y" that adds something to data about posted wait times. But just saying "the posted wait time was X when we walked past, so we didn't ride" provides less information than a chart of posted wait times. At least the chart provides the posted times for the whole day instead of just that one point in time.

 

[Mickey&Mouse]

With the reports of inaccurate posted wait times on both sides (both higher and lower waits than posted), I would disagree with this. I just don't feel they are reliable any more. And they seem to be less reliable now than they were in the past (from numerous discussions here anyway), so I don't even know that comparing posted wait times is really an apples to apples comparison anymore. I certainly don't take any issue with people using them for comparisons - as mesaboy pointed out, there is precious little data to work from in the first place, so I'm all for using what's available. But I do find people's experiences - both positive and negative - equally valuable in creating strategies to best use the system Disney has put in place.

That's what I love about the DIS so much - people coming and sharing what did and didn't work for them, helping each other, and sharing a love of Disney. Data just doesn't do that.

Totally agree with this.

We just got back from our trip to WDW a few days ago, and were at MK on Wed May 20 when Josh was there for his report. I have to say though he picked an awesome day crowd-wise to be there. We were also at MK on Wed May 13 and Fri May 15, and Wed May 20th was by far the better of the three. The headliner FP's were available later into the day, which was a nice surprise. Inflated standby wait times were definitely a common occurrence when we were there. On Wed May 13th for example: Under the Sea said 15 mins when it was a walk on. POTC said 30 and ended up being 10 mins. Splash was posted at 40 mins- it ended up being about 15 mins. However on Fri May 15 we didn't experience any inflated standby times, and it was noticeably more crowded. Lines were much longer in general and headliner FP's were depleted sooner. On Wed May 20th the posted wait times seemed more accurate as well, although the 10 min posted wait time for Space between 10:20-10:40PM turned out to be longer than 20 mins since we bailed out at that point to head for SDMT before the park closed. The posted 30 mins for SDMT at 10:45 turned out to be only 10 mins.

I also have to agree with Lisa Loves Pooh about the party size affecting the touring plan. We are a family of 6 and on Wed May 20th met up with friends who were a party of 8, so 14 people for a few hours anyway. I already thought it was a challenge with just us 6 but it's much, much s-l-o-w-e-r with 14 people.

Thinking back to our Epcot day (Mon May 18) when we hit TT at RD for an awesome walk-on with a posted standby time of 30 mins, and then when we got off the ride the posted time had increased to 40 mins. We didn't get back in the line, but I wonder what the real wait time was.

I guess I would say that statistics and wait time charts go out the window when you're actually in the lines experiencing something far different than what is posted. In our case, it worked in our favor most of the time- but it wasn't something we could rely on since you never know if *this* time they have an accurate posted wait time.

 

[Angel Ariel]

On Wed May 13th for example: Under the Sea said 15 mins when it was a walk on. POTC said 30 and ended up being 10 mins. Splash was posted at 40 mins- it ended up being about 15 mins. However on Fri May 15 we didn't experience any inflated standby times, and it was noticeably more crowded. Lines were much longer in general and headliner FP's were depleted sooner. On Wed May 20th the posted wait times seemed more accurate as well, although the 10 min posted wait time for Space between 10:20-10:40PM turned out to be longer than 20 mins since we bailed out at that point to head for SDMT before the park closed. The posted 30 mins for SDMT at 10:45 turned out to be only 10 mins.

Thank you for that detailed report, Mickey&Mouse!

This is exactly what I was referring to. As shown in your experience - the posted wait time can be completely off. A ride can say it's a 15 min wait and then in reality be a walk-on. Someone could look at the data from May 13,2015 a few years from now and all they would see is that Ariel had a posted 15 minute wait at that specific time. So say this hypothetical someone comes back from a trip of their own and they were on Ariel on May 13th 2017, and there was a posted 20 min wait and they waited 20 mins at appx the same time Mickey&Mouse waited on their trip in 2015. Looking at the posted wait time data would tell that person "oh, that's just a 5 min wait time increase, that's not a big deal" when in actuality it was a 20 min wait time increase from the 2015 walk-on experience to a 20 min wait.

Disney has made it difficult for me to trust the posted wait time data because it is so consistently inaccurate in *both* directions(higher and lower). I've experienced it myself, and I've read many similar reports from others here on the DIS over a long period of time. If someone tells me they used to ride POTC and it was a walk-on when they did, I have no reason not to believe that person. I know I've experienced that at that attraction before, and I know many others have as well. When Disney manipulates the posted wait times as seems to be happening, I don't think it's as black and white as looking at a chart of posted wait times and saying those are more accurate than anyone's anecdotal experience.

As I said before, it's the only data available to us, so I certainly don't blame anyone for looking at it or using it. I just don't think it's infallible data.

 

[TheDisGuy]

But... but... I'm armed with one day's worth of posted wait times.

Oh how I wish you would jump in with more than this

 

[wisblue]

I guess the only conclusion I can draw then is that we must be some of the luckiest guests ever to visit WDW.

Because of some temporary family circumstances I have made an unusually high number of visits to WDW (at least for us) since 2011 at various times of the year, including 5 since December of 2013. I would be hard pressed to remember more than a couple of attractions out of the hundreds I did on those trips in which our actual waits were longer than the posted waits. And, when they were longer, it was only by 5 minutes or so. On the other hand, we frequently experienced actual waits shorter than the posted times. We rarely enter lines with posted waits longer than 20-30 minutes and we often find posted waits of 20 minutes to correspond to virtual walk ons. And this has been our experience for as long as we have been visiting WDW. So, our mindset is that, unless the ride breaks down while we are in line, our actual wait will be no longer than the posted wait and will often be shorter. And we are very rarely surprised.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I guess the only conclusion I can draw then is that we must be some of the luckiest guests ever to visit WDW.

Because of some temporary family circumstances I have made an unusually high number of visits to WDW (at least for us) since 2011 at various times of the year, including 5 since December of 2013. I would be hard pressed to remember more than a couple of attractions out of the hundreds I did on those trips in which our actual waits were longer than the posted waits. And, when they were longer, it was only by 5 minutes or so. On the other hand, we frequently experienced actual waits shorter than the posted times. We rarely enter lines with posted waits longer than 20-30 minutes and we often find posted waits of 20 minutes to correspond to virtual walk ons. And this has been our experience for as long as we have been visiting WDW. So, our mindset is that, unless the ride breaks down while we are in line, our actual wait will be no longer than the posted wait and will often be shorter. And we are very rarely surprised.

As I said, it really isn't about whether the posted wait is longer or shorter. People have posted experiences with both. I have no reason not to believe them.

That said - knowing that the posted wait times are frequently *not* representative of the actual wait - regardless of direction - makes it difficult, IMO, to just take posted wait time data from one year and posted wait time from another year and then definitively compare the two and say that the data is worth more than an anecdote. The data doesn't tell you what the actual wait time was, just what Disney posted.

Considering you are saying here that you "frequently experienced actual waits shorter than the posted times," that should demonstrate why using posted wait times as a comparison from year to year can be misleading. If you "often find posted waits of 20 minutes to correspond to virtual walk ons," then which is more accurate of a picture? The posted wait time data collected that shows the posted wait time was 20 minutes, or the anecdote that it was actually a walk on? If someone were to look at it a year or two from now, and only see the data, they'd assume the wait was actually 20 minutes when that really wasn't the case.

My point is that posted wait times are only part of the picture. Anecdotes are equally valuable, as they can add much needed context to the cold data. Until such a day when Disney releases actual wait time data for all to analyze (which, since they have closed the codes other sites were using to post that info, I consider this highly unlikely), then both data and anecdotes are important.

 

[Austintatious]

As I read thru these comments I can't help but notice that the folks who are quick to point out how much more crowded the parks are refuse to allow any notion that wait times have increased.

Which brings me back to the point of this thread - what exactly was the point of this thread? To convince us all that wait times have not increased?

Have the attractions somehow absorbed all of these increases in crowd levels yet maintained the same wait times? I think not.

 

[Lucius Best]

Which brings me back to the point of this thread - what exactly was the point of this thread? To convince us all that wait times have not increased?

I enjoyed reading Josh's touring plan experience, especially the tables of how wait times changed over the course of the day. However, I think I found the real point of this thread:

I'm really more interested in refuting the idea that standby waits are so much longer for so much of the day that they will have a significant impact on your day.

Does anyone think that standby waits are "so much longer" with FP+ than before? That was something I recall people being worried about before FP+ got rolled out. People who experience longer/shorter lines compared to a previous trip are correct. Their opinions are valid, but there's no way to prove it one way or the other.

And only Disney has enough data to scientifically compare wait times before and after FP+. But you'd need to compare days with the same crowd size (number of people through the gate, not "crowd level"), same crowd characteristics (i.e. hour-by-hour crowd size), same hours, same shows/parades, similar weather, and same rides running. If a ride is closed for refurb, or breaks down, or a thunderstorm rolls through, that changes everything. And even if you could find closely identical days, your "data" is Disney posted wait times, and everyone has experienced those being wildly inaccurate.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

As I read thru these comments I can't help but notice that the folks who are quick to point out how much more crowded the parks are refuse to allow any notion that wait times have increased.

Which brings me back to the point of this thread - what exactly was the point of this thread? To convince us all that wait times have not increased?

Have the attractions somehow absorbed all of these increases in crowd levels yet maintained the same wait times? I think not.

The link shows the point and the OP declares his point.

As to to your last question---sounds like you hit upon the reason the true wait increases...more people. It seems folks want to blame FP+. But I think you hit the nail on the head.

As I said, it really isn't about whether the posted wait is longer or shorter. People have posted experiences with both. I have no reason not to believe them.

That said - knowing that the posted wait times are frequently *not* representative of the actual wait - regardless of direction - makes it difficult, IMO, to just take posted wait time data from one year and posted wait time from another year and then definitively compare the two and say that the data is worth more than an anecdote. The data doesn't tell you what the actual wait time was, just what Disney posted.

Considering you are saying here that you "frequently experienced actual waits shorter than the posted times," that should demonstrate why using posted wait times as a comparison from year to year can be misleading. If you "often find posted waits of 20 minutes to correspond to virtual walk ons," then which is more accurate of a picture? The posted wait time data collected that shows the posted wait time was 20 minutes, or the anecdote that it was actually a walk on? If someone were to look at it a year or two from now, and only see the data, they'd assume the wait was actually 20 minutes when that really wasn't the case.

My point is that posted wait times are only part of the picture. Anecdotes are equally valuable, as they can add much needed context to the cold data. Until such a day when Disney releases actual wait time data for all to analyze (which, since they have closed the codes other sites were using to post that info, I consider this highly unlikely), then both data and anecdotes are important.

Unless we go to chip timing, outfitting each guest with a timing chip, how would any company reliably tell you any guest what their wait would be at the start of the line? Wait times have always been guestimates and those guesstimates can be off in either direction. They are no more or less accurate than someone's report of their actual wait. Because the guests that arrived before or after them could have been waiting less or more. When they only give the red card out every so often, they aren't capturing an average wait time of all guests. But I do think they are doing their best to give you a relevant approximation of what the wait will be.

It does not render anecdote unimportant though. But yet, the link is an anecdote. One person's actual experience. And yet, folks are downplaying it. Why? Because he followed his cheat sheet and had a successful day? Sounds like some anecdotes are more important than others.

As Wis stated, that anecdote of physically waiting in the line is more important than someone who walked by and read a sign. Just as walking by and reading a sign will be more important than me checking the app from home. It goes back to--those who actually experience something tend to have more to contribute than those watching from the sidelines. It is that way for any experience. Sometimes the watcher is the only way to get some information and that is fine.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I enjoyed reading Josh's touring plan experience, especially the tables of how wait times changed over the course of the day. However, I think I found the real point of this thread:



Does anyone think that standby waits are "so much longer" with FP+ than before? That was something I recall people being worried about before FP+ got rolled out. People who experience longer/shorter lines compared to a previous trip are correct. Their opinions are valid, but there's no way to prove it one way or the other.

And only Disney has enough data to scientifically compare wait times before and after FP+. But you'd need to compare days with the same crowd size (number of people through the gate, not "crowd level"), same crowd characteristics (i.e. hour-by-hour crowd size), same hours, same shows/parades, similar weather, and same rides running. If a ride is closed for refurb, or breaks down, or a thunderstorm rolls through, that changes everything. And even if you could find closely identical days, your "data" is Disney posted wait times, and everyone has experienced those being wildly inaccurate.

Pretty sure the point was stated pretty clearly--the article shows how crowds develop.

And then he clearly states his follow on point--it refutes claims of wait times as follows.
The article also shows that ride waits are not "always" x amount of time or "never" less than y amount of time. Claims made often and easily refuted for their absoluteness of claim using "always" and "never" or even some other terms such as "rarely". As in--it NEVER had a wait before but it ALWAYS has one now. That RARELY happened before and now it happens ALL THE TIME.

But it simply does not hold true. Now, the writer may not like his article being used that way since he was merely testing his chest sheet. That's his prerogative. But it does provide valuable experience to show. And while May 20th may have been the best day to test this based on someone else's anecdote, does it really matter? I think it does in the essence that the cheat sheet was used on a day recommending MK as the best park to visit. It seems that tip is an ongoing one--go to the most recommended park if you can for optimum crowd conditions to maximize your opportunity.

As for increased waits--people! Lots of people.

So my anecdote--I have gone in December, January, February, April, and May now. I have found a variety of wait times. We have gone to MK most often and we have indeed found lines with waits that were shorter than the always claims. The only ones that have been steady with long line length--Mine train--posted 45, family was in and out within 45. And Anna and Elsa--we skipped so don't have the actual wait experience to report back. Oh and we did wait in Toy Story--we got in with 5-10 minutes to spare and posted wait was around an hour. (Don't remember the actual times as this was back in January. I did time it for my own curiosity.)

 

[wisblue]

Just to be clear, the main original point of this thread was to provide what I think is useful information for people planning trips about what they can expect to encounter when they visit the MK on an average crowd day.

The part about comparing wait times to those on a similar day in 2013 was meant to provide some information to people who haven't visited WDW for a couple of years who may be reading on these boards that, because of FP+, wait times on certain attractions are going to be significantly longer than they experienced on their previous trips. I have never said that wait times are not ever longer on some attractions, whether that be because of larger overall crowds or the impact of FP+. But, as I have said on many occasions, I do think that the increases are often dramatically overstated. And all that does is create unnecessary anxiety for first time or infrequent visitors who are planning their trips.

If we are all in agreement that standby lines are not that much longer than before FP+ on similar crowd days, and that individual experiences are going to vary based to some extent on how crowds happen to develop that day and how that person tours the park, then we are all good.

I hope that some of the regular posters who contributed to this thread will be equally enthusiastic about chiming in when others make statements like "FP+ has created long standby lines at rides that never had them before" and "because of FP+ you can only do 3 attractions without waiting in long lines". I am not seeing anyone on this thread who is claiming that statements like this are really accurate.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I really, really hope this holds true for our trip next May...

It has held true for is several times so far.

For DHS--BEFORE rope drop is even more important as they tend to be letting folks in early. We were in the line to start the line for TOT at 10 'til 8. The caveat on that day was that RNR was broken. But TOT did not get slammed. I actually liked going during SWW since it seemed that Star Wars activities were #1 on lots of guests' agendas and everything else was an after thought. We even saw the standby line for Toy Story drop because the motorcade and a show was going on.

Anyway--to max duplicate riding, rope drop is a must. And if off site, avoiding morning EMH is also important. (We did that in December--avoided EMH.)

 

[JanaDee]

There are precious few "facts" and actual, useful data regarding the impact of FP+ available to any of us, since Disney is so protective of that information. Almost everything claimed a "fact" in these kinds of threads is either anecdotal, cherry-picked, skewed by personal perception ("it's crowded!"), or culled from WDW's own dubious wait times info by third parties and then interpreted by someone with a silly agenda. About the only facts we get straight from Disney come from quarterly shareholder's meetings and are far too general to be useful to us or an average park guest.

So in the end these back-and-forths are little more than that, with each side claiming "facts" and "data" to refute the other side's "opinions" and "assumptions" when in truth nobody knows much of anything. Everyone has their own experiences and can make up their own minds, and trying to refute others' ideas is pretty pointless.

But carry on.

Who wants to go fishing?

 

[mom2rtk]

As to to your last question---sounds like you hit upon the reason the true wait increases...more people. It seems folks want to blame FP+. But I think you hit the nail on the head.

Forget dissecting wait times and comparing anecdotes. Nobody will ever agree on that.

I've already pointed out that for me it's about having less access to FP for headliner rides, so more of our trips through those lines will have to be by standby, resulting in much longer wait times than before.

But let's go with the "parks are more crowded" argument. Disney has entire departments devoted to making that happen. People probably get bonuses when it happens. Disney knows the exact numbers and is fully aware of how much crowds go up every year. Yet they chose to make their big investment in the parks take the form of a ride rationing system rather than more attractions.

No matter what you think of the wait times, the mere presence of FP+ sucked up a huge pile of investment in the parks that could have been spent on more attractions.

So yes. I blame FP+.

 

[Angel Ariel]

The part about comparing wait times to those on a similar day in 2013 was meant to provide some information to people who haven't visited WDW for a couple of years who may be reading on these boards that, because of FP+, wait times on certain attractions are going to be significantly longer than they experienced on their previous trips. I have never said that wait times are not ever longer on some attractions, whether that be because of larger overall crowds or the impact of FP+. But, as I have said on many occasions, I do think that the increases are often dramatically overstated. And all that does is create unnecessary anxiety for first time or infrequent visitors who are planning their trips.

I'm well aware of what the purpose of this section was. And what I am saying is that yes, it is easy to look at posted wait time data from 2013 and posted wait time data from now and see "oh, they aren't all that different.". However, as you demonstrated yourself, it is not unusual for wait times to be exaggerated and for a ride to have a 15 or 20 min posted wait when it is really a walk on. The posted wait time data doesn't do anything to indicate what actual wait was. So if someone comes on here and says that they used to always walk on to POTC, and now they are *actually* waiting 20 mins...even if the difference in posted wait time is only 5 mins, that's actually a 20 min increase in wait time for that person. That is not an insignificant increase.

I'm not suggesting that happens all the time, every day. But I do believe people have experienced just that. And those anecdotes are, imo, worth just as much - if not more - than statistical data about wait times that have a history of being inaccurate.

 

[larandtra1990]

Most people are averse to change and unfortunately, many complain just for the sake of complaining. I have talked to several people who complained aboutt he new system, yet, have not even been to try it. Tehy get worked up by the masses who generally are uninformed and just dislike change. As someone who goes a great deal and has APs, we found the system to actually make touring much better. You can complain all you want about "sponteneity" but the reality is, everything you do in life is pretty much planned and planning anything always makes it easier to manage and invariably enjoy. We have not seen stand by times increase, nor have we had any issues using the FP+ system, getting fps or even getting extras later on. If you are willing to plan in advance, hit a couple of parks at rope drop, take advantage of EMHs, the new system actually makes touring much more enjoyable and less stressful. But, regardless, there are those who complain just to complain. I am yet to talk to anyone who has actually been and is a vet of WDW, used the new system, and doesnt think it is an improvement. Most of the people complaining either arent people who go more than once every few years or people who have not even been at all.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I hope that some of the regular posters who contributed to this thread will be equally enthusiastic about chiming in when others make statements like "FP+ has created long standby lines at rides that never had them before" and "because of FP+ you can only do 3 attractions without waiting in long lines". I am not seeing anyone on this thread who is claiming that statements like this are really accurate.

As for this, I've always been clear about what my experience was. We did do more than 3 attractions, we did experience other short lines. Fp+ helped us on the days we couldn't make RD.

That said, my experience is solely my own. I wouldn't tell someone else that their experience is wrong because it doesn't match my own. Everyone here has a right to share their own experiences.

 

[momof2n2]

Most people are averse to change and unfortunately, many complain just for the sake of complaining. I have talked to several people who complained aboutt he new system, yet, have not even been to try it. Tehy get worked up by the masses who generally are uninformed and just dislike change. As someone who goes a great deal and has APs, we found the system to actually make touring much better. You can complain all you want about "sponteneity" but the reality is, everything you do in life is pretty much planned and planning anything always makes it easier to manage and invariably enjoy. We have not seen stand by times increase, nor have we had any issues using the FP+ system, getting fps or even getting extras later on. If you are willing to plan in advance, hit a couple of parks at rope drop, take advantage of EMHs, the new system actually makes touring much more enjoyable and less stressful. But, regardless, there are those who complain just to complain. I am yet to talk to anyone who has actually been and is a vet of WDW, used the new system, and doesnt think it is an improvement. Most of the people complaining either arent people who go more than once every few years or people who have not even been at all.

So if I do all the things you say (which we historically do) and I don't get to ride our favorite headliners 2-4 times each, I can then say I don't like it?

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Forget dissecting wait times and comparing anecdotes. Nobody will ever agree on that.

I've already pointed out that for me it's about having less access to FP for headliner rides, so more of our trips through those lines will have to be by standby, resulting in much longer wait times than before.

But let's go with the "parks are more crowded" argument. Disney has entire departments devoted to making that happen. People probably get bonuses when it happens. Disney knows the exact numbers and is fully aware of how much crowds go up every year. Yet they chose to make their big investment in the parks take the form of a ride rationing system rather than more attractions.

No matter what you think of the wait times, the mere presence of FP+ sucked up a huge pile of investment in the parks that could have been spent on more attractions.

So yes. I blame FP+.

Okay.

Enjoy your trip regardless.