At WDW, what you will find at 7 months out is the following.
1. First week of December is the highest DVC demand week of the year, followed by Dec 23 to Jan 2, followed by the second week of Dec. During that time it is extremely difficult to get anything other than SSR, OKW and savanna or standard view at AKV and even those AKV and OKW rooms and the Treehouse Villas at SSR have a risk of being gone first week of Dec and some risk the second week of Dec and time around NYE. NYE is the highest demand night of the year.
2. Added to that, DVC's highest demand quarter by far is from the end of Sep, when Food & Wine begins, through marathon weekend in Jan. During much of that time, the near park resorts (BLT, BCV and BWV -- VGF does not have a track record yet but probably will be similar to those three) are difficult to get unless you are looking for no more than two and possibly three consecutive nights. Also the middle two weeks of Oct, Veterans Day weekend and Thanksgiving time approach in demand those high demand weeks in Dec noted above and there can days when AKV, SSR treehouses, and even OKW are gone; VWL is also usually gone tome around Thanskgiving and has a a risk in the middle of Oct and veterans Day weekend . There are three moderate demand weeks during that period when you can usually succeed in getting a near park resort (except for "usual suspects" noted below): the week before the week Thanksgiving is in, the third week in Dec, and the time from Jan 3 to the Wednesday before marathon weekend.
3. In comparison to that high demand quarter, the rest of the year, mid-Jan through most of Sep is a piece of cake. Other than usual suspects, you can usually get a near park resort (such as BLT lake view, BWV pool/garden) at 7 months out including during holidays during that period (e.g., it is easier to get time around Easter and July 4 than it is marathon weekend in Jan). The once believed high demand spring break weeks are actually easy to get at 7 months out. The highest demand period during those spring break weeks when near park resorts may actually be difficult is the weekend in latter part of Feb when Disney has the Princess half-marathon. Particularly easy times during that period (when many things at near park resorts are open well beyond the 7 month window)include first two weeks of Feb, last part of Feb after the Princess half-marathon weekend through first two weeks of March, last week of April, and Sep until the last few days.
4. Usual Suspects: there are certain categories of rooms that are gone at 7 months out most of the year: (a) AKV club level, for which there are only 10 possible rooms (5 2BR lock-offs that can become 5 studios and 5 1BRs), and those are seldom available except for a random night or two most of the year and in fact are often gone even before one's 11 month window opens (taken by those who have arrival dates shortly before yours who can reserve up to 7 nights from date of arrival); (b) OKW grand villas near the Hospitality House (a booking category) which are usually gone long before the 7 month window opens (however other OKW GVs are usually open at 7 months out except, peculiarly, for a short period in mid-June and except for the higher demand times during that high demand quarter; (c) BWV grand villas, although you can sometimes find those available during the particularly easy times mentioned in 3 above; (d) AKV value rooms except sometimes (and only sometimes) during those particularly easy times; (e) BLT standard view (with some but not much chance to get lucky during some of those particularly easy times); (f) BWV standard and boardwalk view except for some chance to get them during the particularly easy times and even possibly outside those once in a while between mid-Jan and end of Sep. Also, BCV studios and BLT theme park studios have some risk of being gone a day or two during holiday times from mid-Jan through Sep.
5. 1BRs are usually the last to be reserved and can often be found when nothing else is open at 7 months out even for some of those usual suspects and at times during the high demand quarter. GVs except for BWV and the OKW ones at Hospitality House are usually open during the mid-Jan through end of Sep period (except other OKW GVs may be gone in mid June and BLT lake view GVs can sometimes be gone).
6. SSR is open year round at 7 months out except GVs can be gone first week of Dec and time around NYE and Treehouses can be gone during middle two weeks of Oct. Thanksgiving time, marathon weekend and the three high demand weeks in Dec. AKV standard and savanna view and OKW except Hospitality House area are also usually open most of the year at 7 months out except for some risk otherwise noted above (similar to treehouses). When looking beyond 7 month window, SSR, AKV and OKWE often stay open well beyond the 7 month window and SSR is usually the last to fill.
7. If you intend to use the 7 month window it is wise to make reservation exactly 7 months out particularly for any near park resort. Waiting a day can often mean the difference in getting what you want and not at a near park resort during busy periods. Moreover, if something like a usual suspect is open, it is wise to reserve on-line at exactly 8 a.m. eastern 7 months out because waiting for the phone lines to open at 9 may be too late. Also, even for hard to get reservations, wait lists have worked for many. Moreover, you can sometimes get lucky after the 7 month window opens by just checking often to see if what you want might have opened because others have cancelled or changed reservations.
VGF has no definite pattern yet but I am guessing it will follow BLT as being difficult during the high demand quarter but open many other times of year except for the studios. It has only 47 studios and thus there is likely going to be a risk those will be difficult much of the year.
Bill
