This sounds about right-- I bought the first contracts with 30 years left on them-- BC and BW, and if my cost is 8 and yours averages to 12, I pay 2/3 of what you pay, and at 20 years they even out. My last 10 years are free! I hope I am still happy about that in another 12 years.
With all due respect to you two...I don't know why you bother doing that particular mathematical comparison.
The comparison to be made, and the only one that's realistic, is the comparison of what the DVC nights are costing you against the equivalent rack rates...and that yields huge, disgusting savings very quickly in the contract and will likely only increase:
Renting DVC points is a nice tool... But it's not a set in stone arrangement that is always necessarily going to be there...and if the "rental" market rises significantly - which it very well could at some point - then the comparison is blown.
And the argument is "well what about the dues...they are a fortune?"
My argument there is that dues really are just a drop in the bucket. In my case it works out to be a little less than a thousand for what gives us 3 weeks in WDW. That combined with the upfront purchase price (which admittedly is not such a great deal anymore as they have in unrealistically jacked up the point costs) makes it a hugely lucrative buy.
I had worked it out that the first
Night we stayed on DVC (a studio at beach club) was somewhere around $175 for the night....rack rate at beach was $309 at the time.
Now there is a lot of doom and gloom about dues going up...and they will. But lucky there is more than likely a cap on the market with that. At least a "soft, unofficial" cap. DVC has to have a relatively low maintenance cost for the initial sales upfront or the monster will turn on them and bite. If they try to sell $30 a point in dues...it will gut their membership and kill their sales.
"Minimum purchase is 200 points at $42,500 plus $7,000 in annual dues for 50 years at the Villas at Disney's All Star Music"
Nobody likes Disney that much
I see what you're saying...but I wouldn't base it on the DVC rental market. Remember: we are all ultimately renters from Disney and if they sense a distinct pattern of circumventing the purchase of new contracts by frequent, consistent renting...they'll blow it up in a Wall Street minute.