Which will sell out first BLT or GCV?

[thelionqueen]

We just attended the Vacation As You Wish presentation last night at the Contemporary and wound up adding on more points. Our guide told us that BLT is currently 75% sold out. I'm sure the rest will go quickly. Especially with the great incentives they're offering at the Vacation As You Wish events!

Just last month I read/heard it was only 45% sold out...interesting!

 

[SoCalKDG]

Its written into the DVC contracts that the new hotel rooms at the Grand can be modified to DVC units.

With a 1 billion dollar expansion under way at DCA being finished 2012, I'd expect to see hotel rates increase dramatically making the DVC units at the Grand very popular.

With a new land, 5 new rides, a new nighttime show, and a remodel of the park I could see the resort(both parks) going from approx 20 million to 25 million by 2013.

Interesting comments on location vs. theming. I think I'll take a 5 minute walk to two different parks and good theming over a 30 minute trip and great theming. With 5 minutes each way I'd go back to the room 3- times a day, eating lunch and dinner every time in the room, taking swims every day, etc. That 30 minute trip each way gives an hour round trip, so maybe I go back once, but that would be it.

 

[gkrykewy]

Interesting comments on location vs. theming. I think I'll take a 5 minute walk to two different parks and good theming over a 30 minute trip and great theming. With 5 minutes each way I'd go back to the room 3- times a day, eating lunch and dinner every time in the room, taking swims every day, etc. That 30 minute trip each way gives an hour round trip, so maybe I go back once, but that would be it.

While I do find walk-up access to be very appealing (we don't own a car at home), I'm not aware of any resort-->park trip anywhere in WDW that would take 30 minutes. Even 15 minutes is questionable.

 

[wideeyedwonder]

While I do find walk-up access to be very appealing (we don't own a car at home), I'm not aware of any resort-->park trip anywhere in WDW that would take 30 minutes. Even 15 minutes is questionable.

Sometimes waiting for transportation to ARRIVE at WDW can take 30 minutes. Quite a few times the busses were bunched up, so you would get several busses going to the "wrong" destination (ie any destination you are not headed to). Add in the travel time, and y9ou can have a significant wait, so much so that I'd rather have a short walk (Epcot->BCV, for example), rather than having to wait for transportation to arrive.

At the DLR, if you stay at the GC or the DLH, going back to the hotel mid-day is so much easier and faster, if you are OK with walking.

The biggest no-brainer is a day at CA, staying at the GC (and soon, the GCVs)...with the "direct connect" entrance to CA, it can be a 5 minute walk to your room from the Grizzly Rapids ride.

No more all day forced marches for us, we just don't have fun with them.

 

[thelionqueen]

While I do find walk-up access to be very appealing (we don't own a car at home), I'm not aware of any resort-->park trip anywhere in WDW that would take 30 minutes. Even 15 minutes is questionable.

I would disagree. We rent a car every trip and even with our clan, just walking from the hotel to the car, then to park, then transporation to get into the park (from parking lot, tram, etc), almost every park is at least 30 minutes away unless you are within walking distance.

If you add into the equation of staying at say, AKV and going to MK via car, that trip is easily 30mins with a rental car. I cannot say how long that trip would be via Disney bus, but it seems logical, with no other stops or overcrowding, it would take a good 20mins.

If you take into account the advice given by Disney Dining when making ADR's, they suggest you give yourself at least an hour for travel time, so from that corporate suggestion, you can be sure they are calculating all these variables as well.

I agree with wideeyedwonder and would take location over theming every day of the week! On our last trip to DLR, we saw this couple schlepping a 2 child stroller, and an infant in a "back pack" type apparatus walking across Katella looking like they were about to die. Seriously, in the heat, the stroller, kids, baby, souvenirs, not to mention the purse, backpack, etc, they were hauling, I say No thank you!! I LOVE walking back to my room from a park to take a quick nap or swim and then head right back to the park.

If you truly take into the equation that "time is money" (especially on Disney vacations) the time and effort it takes to get to and from locations can really add up financially, not counting the toll it takes on the nerves.

I also didn't take into account the new GCA upgrades (although I'm in the minority with LOVING GCA the way it is now). So I agree that the new attractions will increase the level of guests @ DLR. I just hope they don't take out the Golden Dreams theatre, my kids will be devastated. I know I am in the SERIOUS minority who LOVES that attraction

Just my .02

 

[gkrykewy]

I would disagree. We rent a car every trip and even with our clan, just walking from the hotel to the car, then to park, then transporation to get into the park (from parking lot, tram, etc), almost every park is at least 30 minutes away unless you are within walking distance.

If you add into the equation of staying at say, AKV and going to MK via car, that trip is easily 30mins with a rental car. I cannot say how long that trip would be via Disney bus, but it seems logical, with no other stops or overcrowding, it would take a good 20mins.

There are no other stops, and overcrowding is irrelevant with regard to travel time... 20 minutes would be on the very high end for any park (per my initial post above).

I see your point with regard to car rentals adding time to/from parking lots. We never rent a car, and I was referring to bus travel times. It does take a few minutes to reach the bus stop... someone above mentioned waiting 30 minutes for a bus to arrive though, and I've never experienced that, or anything approaching that, at WDW (again, relying on bus transportation for every trip).

Disney suggests allowing 1hr+ for transportation to restaurants at other resorts, which would include all related walk time plus a transfer, which is the real kicker.

Again, I don't at all disagree that GC's proximity to the Cali parks is not a huge amenity -- I just don't think one needs to get into the "let's exaggerate silly numbers to further my argument" game to make that point. It stands well enough on its own.

 

[dizfan]

I think GCV will definitely sell out first. Far fewer rooms/points to sell than BLT.

Thread discussing BLT declared rooms updated for documentation file June 18, 2009

Based on the declared rooms from Disney's filings with the county, less than 50% of BLT was sold as of June 18, 2009. Declared rooms are ones Disney's selling or sold. I looked at the Orange County Comptroller web site today and do not see any documents describing closings on additional rooms.

The most recent documents on file appear to be running for paperwork sent out about 1 month ago. So it doesn't include the really busy periods: end of the member referral cruise discount, web cast, Boston event, BLT previews. As closings from these events are registered with the OCC, the number of declared rooms will increase.

I have heard the Disney only needs to file the declared room updates every 3 months. It will be interesting to see what rooms/floors are declared in the next update (another couple months from now).

 

[arthur06]

My vote is for GCV. Simply by the size, I would guess it has to go first. I think that as of now, it is my favorite DVC resort! It has great location, and the design is really something that I like! If DW would let me add on again, I would add on there!

 

[Greysword]

I would vote for BLT to sell out before VGC mainly due to DVD incentives.

Our family just returned from WDW and the Vacation Your Way presentation. We added both of these to our SSR ownership (100 pts each). Incentives dropped for BLT (to $12/pt on 100 pt contract) but increased for VGC ($22/pt on 100 pt contract). In addition since we added a total of 200 pts, the guide was able to get the 200 pt discount ($24/pt) for VGC. This made our cost $100/pt at BLT and $88/pt at VGC!

If VGC were almost sold out, then I don't see why they would decrease the price point so much for such a small number of rooms.

Your thoughts?

 

[SoCalKDG]

There are no other stops, and overcrowding is irrelevant with regard to travel time... 20 minutes would be on the very high end for any park (per my initial post above).

I see your point with regard to car rentals adding time to/from parking lots. We never rent a car, and I was referring to bus travel times. It does take a few minutes to reach the bus stop... someone above mentioned waiting 30 minutes for a bus to arrive though, and I've never experienced that, or anything approaching that, at WDW (again, relying on bus transportation for every trip).

Disney suggests allowing 1hr+ for transportation to restaurants at other resorts, which would include all related walk time plus a transfer, which is the real kicker.

Again, I don't at all disagree that GC's proximity to the Cali parks is not a huge amenity -- I just don't think one needs to get into the "let's exaggerate silly numbers to further my argument" game to make that point. It stands well enough on its own.

2-3 minute walk to a bus stop
10 minute wait for bus (I've waited 20 minutes before)
15 minute bus ride (sometimes longer if you stop at another resort or another drop off)
2-3 minutes into park

30 minutes average. 20 on a very good day, 40 on a bad day.

30 minutes average time each way, thus 60 minute per trip. Do it twice per day and your up to 2 hours per day, over 5 days thats a full 10 hours of transporting your self back and forth.

Compare to 5 minutes each way at the VGC you end up with 20 minute per day or just over 90 minutes for 5 days. 10 hours compared to 1.5 hours, huge difference over the course of a vacation.

Location, location, location.

I'l choose VGC as well as the one that will sell out first. I think because its opening 2-3 months early they want the points sold asap thus some incentives.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Again, I don't at all disagree that GC's proximity to the Cali parks is not a huge amenity -- I just don't think one needs to get into the "let's exaggerate silly numbers to further my argument" game to make that point. It stands well enough on its own.

Sorry, but 30 minutes is not an exaggeration and calling it that is being dismissive of other people's experience. Here's examples from our last three trips. In Dec. at OKW we WAITED for an AKV bus for 50 minutes. Then it was 15-20 minutes or so travel time. Our last stay at WL it was an 18-20 minute bus ride to Epcot twice, not including wait time for the bus. 35-40 minutes total trip time. Also in Dec (and I'm not speaking of the Christmas holidays) our trip with wait time to MK from BCV was almost 1 hour on the nose. I would not be at all suprised if 30 minutes is more of an average when you consider walking to the bus stop, waiting for a bus and the travel time. Many locations are 15-20 minutes travel so all you are talking is 5 minutes walk to the bus (which most places are) and then a 5 minute wait for the bus (which is just a matter of luck and timing). In May my DH left AKV 1 hour 45 minutes before my nephew and I did. We rode Everest twice, Primeval Whirl once and Dinosaur once. Then we headed out, caught a bus (after a 10 minute wait) and arrived back at AKV 20 minutes after my DH. It took him over 1 hour to get from AK to AKV Jambo house.

This quote if from Wikitravel "The buses are reliable, fairly efficient, and reasonably comfortable, but they can be slow and inconvenient if, for example, you are traveling with young children or strollers. Expect to wait up to fifteen minutes for a bus to your destination, and another ten to thirty minutes to get there—possibly longer during the busy season. Also keep in mind that guests in wheelchairs have first priority when boarding. "

And another source on travel from WL/VWL:
"Travel time based on touringplans.com data (including waits) are:

DAK 37
DHS 37
Epcot 32
MK 19
DD 52"

Many people are having an enjoyable time with friend and family and don't even realize how long it takes to get from point A to B. I actually have next to no complaint and am not a whiner about the transportation - always a proponent, but also a realist. I don't feel our experience has been anything but the norm and only posted this to share another example. What has been stated is not trying to justify an argument - it's happened to me and it's happened to others. When you walk at DL then there's zero wait time and the speed is just as fast as you can motor.


-----------
For the OP's questions - I'll vote a tie!

For BLT: approaching 50% sold, greater sales base (+), greater number of points (-), competing against 2 other locations at WDW for sales (-), proximity to the busiest amusement park in the world (+).

For GCV: I'd guess it's getting closer to 50% sold, smaller sales base (-), only DVC on west coast which is both a plus and a minus, proximity to second busiest amusement park in the world (+), proximity to two amusement parks (+), large local base for visitors (-).

Actually, If I had to make a choice I'd say BLT but I think DVD is trying to even it out with the price differential. If the GCV were plopped down at WDW all factors being the same I don't think there would even be a comparison though - it would win easily. IMO.

 

[thelionqueen]

There are no other stops, and overcrowding is irrelevant with regard to travel time... 20 minutes would be on the very high end for any park (per my initial post above).

I see your point with regard to car rentals adding time to/from parking lots. We never rent a car, and I was referring to bus travel times. It does take a few minutes to reach the bus stop... someone above mentioned waiting 30 minutes for a bus to arrive though, and I've never experienced that, or anything approaching that, at WDW (again, relying on bus transportation for every trip).

Disney suggests allowing 1hr+ for transportation to restaurants at other resorts, which would include all related walk time plus a transfer, which is the real kicker.

Again, I don't at all disagree that GC's proximity to the Cali parks is not a huge amenity -- I just don't think one needs to get into the "let's exaggerate silly numbers to further my argument" game to make that point. It stands well enough on its own.

I thought my post was well written with my opinion and other facts I took into consideration. Never at any time was the tone of my post an "exaggeration of silly numbers to further my argument". Number one, I don't consider this an argument. I stated, very clearly, that I disagreed. If it were called an argument every time I disagreed with someone, you could rename me Rocky Balboa

To your point that disney suggest travel time to include all related walk time plus a transfer made me do this . I have called Disney Dining for more years than I can count, and I have NEVER one time been told that travel time includes walking time and a transfer. I have ALWAYS been told to allow 1 hour travel time, period. Having said that this is MY experience ALONE and I am NOT suggesting it hasn't been told to anyone else. It has NEVER been told to me on literally hundreds (if not thousands) of calls to Disney Dining.

I think you need to take into account that your comments reflect your personal experience, which is quite useful on all threads on the DIS. However, the way you word your experience comes across as if it were undebatable fact. For example, you write..
"There are no other stops, and overcrowding is irrelevant with regard to travel time... 20 minutes would be on the very high end for any park"
I understand that comment to state that overcrowding has no regard to travel time (which it does in every way at every resort @ WDW), and that 20 minutes is high end for any park which obviously is not taking into account the thousands of reasons it can and does impact travel time for every guest that uses WDW transportation.

I'm not trying to start an argument here, quite the contrary. I am standing by my post and again disagreeing with your assessment of travel times.

As many times as I have visited WDW & DLR (more times than I can count honestly) I would never presume to suggest that my experience is fact. I do however suggest that my experience could be valuable and credible for those seeking my opinion on a specific topic, this one included.

Fire away

 

[thelionqueen]

Sorry, but 30 minutes is not an exaggeration and calling it that is being dismissive of other people's experience. Here's examples from our last three trips. In Dec. at OKW we WAITED for an AKV bus for 50 minutes. Then it was 15-20 minutes or so travel time. Our last stay at WL it was an 18-20 minute bus ride to Epcot twice, not including wait time for the bus. 35-40 minutes total trip time. Also in Dec (and I'm not speaking of the Christmas holidays) our trip with wait time to MK from BCV was almost 1 hour on the nose. I would not be at all suprised if 30 minutes is more of an average when you consider walking to the bus stop, waiting for a bus and the travel time. Many locations are 15-20 minutes travel so all you are talking is 5 minutes walk to the bus (which most places are) and then a 5 minute wait for the bus (which is just a matter of luck and timing). In May my DH left AKV 1 hour 45 minutes before my nephew and I did. We rode Everest twice, Primeval Whirl once and Dinosaur once. Then we headed out, caught a bus (after a 10 minute wait) and arrived back at AKV 20 minutes after my DH. It took him over 1 hour to get from AK to AKV Jambo house.

This quote if from Wikitravel "The buses are reliable, fairly efficient, and reasonably comfortable, but they can be slow and inconvenient if, for example, you are traveling with young children or strollers. Expect to wait up to fifteen minutes for a bus to your destination, and another ten to thirty minutes to get there—possibly longer during the busy season. Also keep in mind that guests in wheelchairs have first priority when boarding. "

And another source on travel from WL/VWL:
"Travel time based on touringplans.com data (including waits) are:

DAK 37
DHS 37
Epcot 32
MK 19
DD 52"

Many people are having an enjoyable time with friend and family and don't even realize how long it takes to get from point A to B. I actually have next to no complaint and am not a whiner about the transportation - always a proponent, but also a realist. I don't feel our experience has been anything but the norm and only posted this to share another example. What has been stated is not trying to justify an argument - it's happened to me and it's happened to others. When you walk at DL then there's zero wait time and the speed is just as fast as you can motor.


-----------
For the OP's questions - I'll vote a tie!

For BLT: approaching 50% sold, greater sales base (+), greater number of points (-), competing against 2 other locations at WDW for sales (-), proximity to the busiest amusement park in the world (+).

For GCV: I'd guess it's getting closer to 50% sold, smaller sales base (-), only DVC on west coast which is both a plus and a minus, proximity to second busiest amusement park in the world (+), proximity to two amusement parks (+), large local base for visitors (-).

Actually, If I had to make a choice I'd say BLT but I think DVD is trying to even it out with the price differential. If the GCV were plopped down at WDW all factors being the same I don't think there would even be a comparison though - it would win easily. IMO.

Excellent post, and ITA!

 

[Maistre Gracey]

If VGC were almost sold out, then I don't see why they would decrease the price point so much for such a small number of rooms.

I see what you're saying, but I truly believe the reason they are able to sell VGC for less is because of the high point requirements.

That said, I also believe many visitors to DLR are more local, and may not be as interested in DVC.
DVC may have a tougher time than anticipated getting Easterners to travel west..

If more people here visited Disneyland, they would truly see the beauty of of that resort and I believe it would already be sold out.

MG

 

[DVCGeek]

That said, I also believe many visitors to DLR are more local, and may not be as interested in DVC.
DVC may have a tougher time than anticipated getting Easterners to travel west..

If more people here visited Disneyland, they would truly see the beauty of of that resort and I believe it would already be sold out.

I agree completely here! I planned to go to DL once with my wife and that would be enough for a lifetime (was there once when I was a kid and WDW seemed so much better back then...). We are big WDW fans, and it was bigger and better, 4 parks, etc, right? WELL, after staying in the GCH after a conference (DW flew out and joined me) Nov. 2008 we loved it so much I added on at VGC and plan to go to there once every 3 years or so in addition to at least once per calendar year to WDW!

An interesting thing- we stayed at GCH using developer points from my BLT purchase. Before joining DVC I had booked 2 nights at Paradise Pier. So what is the best way to sell VGC? Get people to stay at the hotel and they won't want anything less!!!

 

[nunzia]

Sometimes waiting for transportation to ARRIVE at WDW can take 30 minutes. Quite a few times the busses were bunched up, so you would get several busses going to the "wrong" destination (ie any destination you are not headed to). Add in the travel time, and y9ou can have a significant wait, so much so that I'd rather have a short walk (Epcot->BCV, for example), rather than having to wait for transportation to arrive.

At the DLR, if you stay at the GC or the DLH, going back to the hotel mid-day is so much easier and faster, if you are OK with walking.

The biggest no-brainer is a day at CA, staying at the GC (and soon, the GCVs)...with the "direct connect" entrance to CA, it can be a 5 minute walk to your room from the Grizzly Rapids ride.

No more all day forced marches for us, we just don't have fun with them.

I have to say that the getting around issue has me most concerned about our upcoming WDW stay. I'm so spoiled by the Grand I just hope I can stand the busses....

 

[nunzia]

I also didn't take into account the new GCA upgrades (although I'm in the minority with LOVING GCA the way it is now). So I agree that the new attractions will increase the level of guests @ DLR. I just hope they don't take out the Golden Dreams theatre, my kids will be devastated. I know I am in the SERIOUS minority who LOVES that attraction

Just my .02

Isn't this closed?? For the Mermaid ride???

 

[SoCalKDG]

Isn't this closed?? For the Mermaid ride???

Thats correct. It will never reopen. I was just there yesterday and they are starting to knock things down. Hopefully the Little Mermaid will make people happier than Whoopie did.

 

[thelionqueen]

Awwww man! Oh well, sadly it doesn't surprise me. We went last May so obviously Ariel took Whoopie out of the picture since then. Anyone know when the last show was?

Of course I love Ariel, so nothing changes but change I guess. My youngest son is gonna' kill me now. He wanted his last ride on our May trip to be Golden dream, but I told him no because we had already done it 4 times. Now I wish I had let him...

 

[bigsmooth]

I see what you're saying, but I truly believe the reason they are able to sell VGC for less is because of the high point requirements.

That said, I also believe many visitors to DLR are more local, and may not be as interested in DVC.
DVC may have a tougher time than anticipated getting Easterners to travel west..

If more people here visited Disneyland, they would truly see the beauty of of that resort and I believe it would already be sold out.

MG

I definitely think the local visitor and population density is a huge impact. Just looking at some statistics online (and yep, I was wrong on DL outdrawing MK) there are 49 million people in the Pacific Time zone and 19 million people in the Mountain Time zone. Comparatively, the Eastern time zone has 142 million people and the Central time zone has 85 million people. WDW just has a much bigger audience to draw from. DL has a big local population to draw from and a much sparser regional base to pull from. As much as I love DL (my favorite attraction and restaurant int he world is there), we have shunned it in favor of the cross country journey to WDW because of the bigger available pool of attractions and parks. I do hope that VGC is a success, because I would like to stay there and perhaps even buy there (not necessarily at VGC but a DL based DVC). But I am not sure of the economics are there for DVC to have a huge presence in SoCal, but we'll see. As for which resort sells out first, I don't really have a clue. But it seems like BLT has been 75% sold out for about six months now.