Which will sell out first BLT or GCV?

[ACDSNY]

However, let's not forget that DLR is horribly over-crowded, the weather is terrible and you should never, ever want to go there if you can help it.

Especially on Oct 14 - 17th this year! I'd like the crowds to thin out a little.

 

[thelionqueen]

Especially on Oct 14 - 17th this year! I'd like the crowds to thin out a little.

And our trip in May 2010, and all subsequent trips of ours where less people would be more enjoyable

 

[DVCGeek]

Especially on Oct 14 - 17th this year! I'd like the crowds to thin out a little.

It might be bad then BUT the absolutely WORST time that EVERYONE should avoid DL (& VGC in particular!) is October 16th through 21st of next year (2010) [Coincidentally, my BD is the 19th...]

 

[arthur06]

I am just hoping that once in the next 5 years I could get 4 nights at VGC w/o being an owner there!

 

[Grumpygrandpa]

I am just hoping that once in the next 5 years I could get 4 nights at VGC w/o being an owner there!

I think many of us may have misjudged the popularity of GCV. I got in at spring break with no prob. I'll bet you will be able to get in at seven months if you don't need high demand dates.

 

[nunzia]

Thank you both SO much, I am truly honored by your comments!

I absolutely LOVE that others feel the same about DLR. I also loved the other post stating that if more people had the opportunity to truly enjoy DLR it would be much more popular and more of a destination vacation.

However, let's not forget that DLR is horribly over-crowded, the weather is terrible and you should never, ever want to go there if you can help it.

That's true..you don't want to visit DLR..blech..icky

 

[SoCalKDG]

It looks like 1805 contracts have been registered.

48 2 bedrooms and Grand Villas gives us approx. 2500 units per year and approx. 1,000,000 points. If everyone bought an ave. of 200 points we get 1805 X 200 = 361k, or 36% sold. Now it looks like the recording happens 1-2 months after purchase, thus we might be at around 45% sold. No matter what it looks like there is still a large amount of points available and should last the rest of the year. Or not.

 

[thelionqueen]

It looks like 1805 contracts have been registered.

48 2 bedrooms and Grand Villas gives us approx. 2500 units per year and approx. 1,000,000 points. If everyone bought an ave. of 200 points we get 1805 X 200 = 361k, or 36% sold. Now it looks like the recording happens 1-2 months after purchase, thus we might be at around 45% sold. No matter what it looks like there is still a large amount of points available and should last the rest of the year. Or not.

Excellent investigative work!!
I love when people find all the facts and then all I have to do is comment

Going by your figures, I'd say a sell out this years seems logical, although I am truly surprised at the amount of points still left

With that in mind, and the apparent 1-2 month "lag" of contracts being sold vs. being recorded, the new incentive is amazing and it just started a few weeks ago. I think that there are a lot of new owners that bought during that incentive (me included) that have not been recorded yet. If those sales reflect all sales prior to this promotion, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a larger amount of contracts show up in say Oct-Nov.

I wonder why the sales are so far below expectation? I must say that since we bought our points to have forever, it doesn't bother me. BUT, on the odd chance we would have to sell our GVC contract I wonder what value it would have in the future if sales seem sluggish now. Any thoughts or am I reading too much into this (which I often do)

 

[thesupersmartguy]

I heard BLT is almost sold out. So i'm going to have to go with that.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I heard BLT is almost sold out. So i'm going to have to go with that.

The numbers here that were dug up by the sleuths show that to be an exaggeration told by the guides.

I'm still betting VGC. I believe the percentages are about the same, but BLT has been on sale for a longer amount of time. Please correct me if I' mistaken...

MG

 

[dizfan]

The numbers here that were dug up by the sleuths show that to be an exaggeration told by the guides.

To confirm MG's info, today a document showed up on the Orange County Comptroller's web site that indicated just under 50% of BLT rooms are declared. Declared in this case means Disney has received approval from Florida to sell points in those rooms. While the documentation is behind and doesn't truly reflect all the contracts out there (for example, some recent documents are from May). The previous BLT declaration had 43.77% of BLT rooms declared, so a safe guess is somewhere between 42% and 50% are sold out. Since the declaration showed up today, it's more likely closer to 42%.

Sales are extremely strong at BLT (over 80,000 points just last week), but BLT has 6 times as many points for sale (approx 6 million).

As someone who dug into the 1500+ BLT contracts since June 18th, I wouldn't be surprised if BLT February UY points sell out in the next month. However, lots of points for the other UYs. Perhaps some of the guides are misrepresenting nearly sold out with Feb UY nearly sold out?

 

[malonefamily]

My family loves WDW (me especially), but the DLR experience is better in many ways. For WDW to replicate the feeling of staying at the Grand Californian they would somehow have to pluck the Magic Kingdom up and put it where Disney Studios is, and put Downtown Disney along the walkway between the Epcot resorts and the park. Then, staying at the Beach Club or Boardwalk nestled in easy walking distance of Epcot and the Magic Kingdom and Downtown Disney would indeed trump the original DLR. In a sense, that's what the DLR feels like now!

Surely the new Villas in the Grand Californian are the record holders for "Closest DVC to a Park" - I mean California Adventure seems to just about bump into the deck of the place! As far as I'm concerned the DTD of California is exactly the right size, and is so much fun to wander around in on the way to the hotels - much better than the confusing and slightly scary DTD found in Florida. And we've always loved DCA, we were first there when the park was only about 10 days old and have always thought it was more fun (or at least more comfortable) than WDW's Disney Studios, which it often reminds us of.

If you stay in the Disneyland Hotel or the Grand Californian, and you walk to the parks, you can be immersed in the magic in a manner very similar to the way WDW manages in Florida. And although there are 2-4 less days worth of parks to play in, a day in Disneyland is still probably about the most amazing day in a park a person can have. Gosh they have a lot of attractions in one place!

That said, I could never choose between them. I'm soooo glad our Seattle-based family was able to buy a 125-point addon in GCV to go with our Saratoga Springs contract (from when that resort was absolutely brand new). We need both flavors of the Mouse as often as we can afford it. I can't wait to see what we think of the Cruiseline (Come on Feb. 7th, hurry up!) Our only other vacation spot is Hawaii, and now it looks like we can Mouse it there too, we sure love DVC.

 

[SoCalKDG]

Looks like my numbers are doubled as they list every contract twice under two different Disney names.

It looks like we only have about 900 contracts that have been registered.

48 2 bedrooms and Grand Villas gives us approx. 2500 units per year and approx. 1,000,000 points. If everyone bought an ave. of 200 points we get 900 X 200 = 180k, or 18% sold.

By now that might be close to 25%, but I'd guess it won't sell out until next summer at the earliest. Of course once people start staying there word of mouth could spread on how great the rooms are.

So now I think BLT will beat out VGC. This might also mean we won't be seeing any additional DVC's at the DLR resort, or at least until Disney sees what happens with the numbers at DCA over the next three years with all the additions starting next year.

 

[Grumpygrandpa]

BLT does seem to have momentum on it's side. It still very surprising to me. If I can get into GCV on a regular basis at seven months with my SSR points I may keep most of them instead of selling and buying more GCV. I can't tell you how curious I am to see how this all works out.