JimMIA said:
I keep seeing this idea of DVC at the Contemporary, and frankly it makes no sense to me. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have a DVC on the monorail, but it doesn't make any marketing sense to me...at least not until SSR is fully built and sold out.
Start building a DVC anywhere on the monorail, and it seems to me that SSR sales come to a screeching halt.
However, I must admit that I am not a DVC history expert. Have they built and sold multiple DVC resorts simultaneously in the past?
I believe DVC was still selling BWV (and Vero) points when both VWL and BCV were announced.
There will have to be some overlap. Back in 2002/03, BCV sold out much quicker than DVC had anticipated, leaving DVC with essentially NO PRODUCT to sell for about 9 months. From about September / October '03 forward, the only resort available was SSR, and buyers couldn't use their points until May '04.
I can't see DVC wanting to get into such a position again. It can't be easy to get folks to plunk down 15K and then make them wait nearly a year to use their points.
SSR was built on developed land, so some of the infrastructure was already in place. Even still, it took nearly 30 months from announcement (Fall '01) to opening (May '04). If the next project is to be an add-on to an existing resort, I'm sure it could be done in less time due to certain resort amenities that are already in place. But you're still looking at 18-24 months (IMO) from start to first guest.
Regarding sales, I'm sure they would slow to some degree whenever a new resort is announced regardless of the location. After all, people do have different tastes. But it's SOP for DVC to tell potential customers "you can use your points at ANY resort..." I'm sure this would be enough to convince some to take the current offering. And it wouldn't hurt to mention how much the price could rise for points at a resort like the Contemporary.
EDIT: One other thought. They could always begin to work on the CR and forego a formal announcement indefinitely. Those of us "in the know" would likely have an idea of what was going on, while the average Disney guest probably doesn't know what's happening outside of the resort they are currently staying at. The question would be which of these is more advantageous to DVC:
1. Sell SSR on its own, keeping under-construction resort hush-hush.
2. Sell SSR, telling potential members "you'll be able to use your points at XXX as soon as it opens!"
I tend to think #2 is the way to go...