This is my FW so I am a bit biased…but still…I wouldn’t feel comfortable with a Feb UY.
We also *never* cancel vacations but had a super close call last year with a
DVC rental - we all came down with the flu a week before. Thankfully we got the green light from our doctor to go the morning we were supposed to leave but after that, I vowed no more
DVC rentals.
I guess in theory if you needed to cancel and had a little more notice, you could always rent it as a confirmed reservation since it’s definitely a popular week.
And yes - if you canceled it in advance, you’d be well before your deadline.
(I REALLY wanted this week, and ended up with a second UY. I’ve made peace with it since we travel so often - it’s nice knowing we have the whole year covered

)
Where are you thinking? Poly? Riv?