Yeah, anytime you say, "My kid will never ____ because ____", you're fooling yourself. (And that includes saying, "My kid will have no trouble adjusting to college because I allowed him plenty of freedom in high school.") You have to stay vigilant.
In my experience & now having a niece that recently completed college & a nephew that is in college it's the "kids" that had all the no, no, nos that went 100% wild in college.
In my experience, it's hard to predict who's going to go 100% wild in college. I saw people "make it" in college who came from very strict homes, and I saw people from very strict homes who did just what you're describing. And I saw people who were absolutely hog-wild every single weekend, but who knew that Monday-Friday were for the books (saw LOTS of those when I lived in an honors dorm).
I think the biggest differences are the student's emotional maturity and their commitment to earning a degree. The student whose parents have JUST SAID no, no, no without any discussion are probably more likely to be unprepared; whereas, a student whose parents talked him through the whys and why nots /consequences of various decisions are more likely to be prepared to think through those decisions on their own.
I went to a college rather near my home, so I went with a good number of my high school friends. If you'd lined us up in order of likelihood to graduate, I'd have been on the far end. I was the kid you'd have said wouldn't make it: No parental support, serious financial problems, little exposure to the world, uncertain career plans, and I'd come from a po-dunk country high school regarded highly only for its agricultural program (well, that wouldn't really come into play since I'm talking about those of us who all graduated from the same high school). Anyway, you would've said that I was the kid who wasn't going to make it. Wanna guess who, out of all of us, became the shining star in college?
Being prepared for college is a multi-fauceted thing, and it doesn't all boil down to whether you allowed them to go away for a weekend or not.
To me it is about playing house. I am not encouraging my high schooler to play house with anyone. The whole romanticized version of adult life. Sex is not even the issue because that can happen anytime. The whole pretending they are actual adults when in reality they have no idea what it is really like to be an adult. No beach weekend is going to teach that and I do not want to make marriage seem like one big beach weekend. I have no desire for my kids to get crazy marriage/permanent relationship ideas as a teen. They need to experience life in the real world first. YMMV.
This is very close to my opinion. It skirts right up to the issues of teen sex and trusting your child,
but the main point is that it's an adult privledge for which a high schooler isn't ready.
I grew up in a house with parents who were very open to us discussing anything with them . . . Let me say, they had 4 kids. None of us ended up pregnant or with STD's. I feel it is because we didn't feel the need to sneak around or hide anything from them out of fear, shame or guilt.
And I grew up in a house that was just the opposite. There were 5 of us, and none of us ended up pregnant with with STDs.
So we just cancelled out one another's antedotal stories.