worried about the rain - I know - but please help

[lucas]

Don't really know who "Mike" is. But, here is his latest posting:

Latest 12z rain models from weathermodels.com through Saturday night. Central Florida stil looking to get a break for the start of the weekend at least. South Florida starts getting it Friday with some high totals possible when our system pops north of the Yucatan. No changes in thinking... just a sloppy holiday rainmaker. GFS coming in line with others and appears whatever Invest 90 becomes crosses the Upper Gulf Sun/Mon as a slow mover. New Orleans to Pensacola is my range right now. Lots of rain expected up there early in the week and still thinking TD/TS at most.... with the majority of rains to the east side. Some west coast Florida waves/wind to watch out for. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mike's Weather Page

 

[PamNC]

Don't really know who "Mike" is. But, here is his latest posting:

Latest 12z rain models from weathermodels.com through Saturday night. Central Florida stil looking to get a break for the start of the weekend at least. South Florida starts getting it Friday with some high totals possible when our system pops north of the Yucatan. No changes in thinking... just a sloppy holiday rainmaker. GFS coming in line with others and appears whatever Invest 90 becomes crosses the Upper Gulf Sun/Mon as a slow mover. New Orleans to Pensacola is my range right now. Lots of rain expected up there early in the week and still thinking TD/TS at most.... with the majority of rains to the east side. Some west coast Florida waves/wind to watch out for. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mike's Weather Page

Looking a little better then - may not be a wash-out weekend. Just going to keep tracking. Thank you.

 

[eeyoresmom]

We are bringing a first timer this weekend so are definitely disappointed in the weather forecast but will soldier on. I have been watching the WESH updates and have a question. I have been many times in the summer where there is the daily downpour at 3 pm and then it clears out. I KNOW this is not the same thing but when there is a TD stalled in the area is it usually rain all day with heavy downpours as well or can we hope there will actually be some dry periods, still cloudy but not actually raining? I know it's a guess but just don't know how these weather patterns usually play out.

 

[eeyoresmom]

Thursday morning update from Mike:
"Overnight models liking the idea of a TD or even TS Alberto as our low slowly treks north through the holiday weekend. This buys him a little more time to get wrapped up. Latest daily rain maps here along with the latest EURO/GFS. Panhandle looks to get the heaviest deluge now... with kinda the idea we were discussing before. Rain starts tomorrow for SFL then the most along the Florida west coast as our system skirts by. No washout by any means if planning on anything over the weekend for the peninsula... just some rains here and there and anytime of the day... with pockets full of sunshine. Looks like high pressure kicks our guy a little to the west before his final approach along the upper Gulf coast. Some winds/waves to watch for along the Florida west coast... and of course whereever landfall ends up. Timing for that appears Sunday night into Monday morning. I will go LIVE at NINE to discuss and think out loud some more. www.spaghettimodels.com /

 

[ari23]

How’s the weather looking for May 31st? We arrive that day, and it seems that it may not be as bad as the weekend will be.

 

[AngiTN]

How’s the weather looking for May 31st? We arrive that day, and it seems that it may not be as bad as the weekend will be.

Use this map to check each day for the current projections

This can be a fun page to play with, if you are a weather geek (along with the above site, though it can be overwhelming too)
You can click on each Day to find the cumulative rain totals over the course of the next 7 days.
It will continue to update as they update the forecast
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

 

[lucas]

From Orlando tv station:
https://www.wftv.com/weather/its-a-...ers-could-move-into-central-florida/755624420

Saturday: 70 percent rain chance
Sunday: 90 percent rain chance
Monday: 80 percent rain chance

 

[PamNC]

Looking Bad - I ain't going. :-( On to the making of plans as to when I will go. darn it. Everyone be safe out there. I think this is definitely a washout unless something crazy happens.

 

[lucas]

Looking Bad - I ain't going. :-( On to the making of plans as to when I will go. darn it. Everyone be safe out there. I think this is definitely a washout unless something crazy happens.

I'm feeling the same way! Darn it all!

 

[AngiTN]

Still too unknown for me to say one way or another. At least in Orlando. We are going, even though we can move our trip. Who's to say it won't be raining whenever we move it to. It's FL after all.
The area without any unknown is Panhandle/Gulf Shores. They are gonna have a lot of rain, way more than Orlando
I mean, I look to the forecast we had when we went for Matthew as a prime example of no one ever knows, till it gets there.

 

[PamNC]

Still too unknown for me to say one way or another. At least in Orlando. We are going, even though we can move our trip. Who's to say it won't be raining whenever we move it to. It's FL after all.
The area without any unknown is Panhandle/Gulf Shores. They are gonna have a lot of rain, way more than Orlando
I mean, I look to the forecast we had when we went for Matthew as a prime example of no one ever knows, till it gets there.

I hope you have a wonderful trip. I'm a weather wuss... LOL

 

[lucas]

I hope you have a wonderful trip. I'm a weather wuss... LOL

Me too.

(We live in South Florida. This tropical mess is not like usual FL rain. Haven't re-booked yet, but checking dates.)

ETA: Oh Lordy, dh just called and said he saw a local forecast where the system has shifted even further west. His feeling........ we should "go for it"

 

[eeyoresmom]

I'm going. I listened to Mikes live update this morning. He predicts some rain and sunny breaks for the Disney area . He reiterated several times the whole weekend would not be a wash out. As of this morning he thinks the panhandle is going to see the more persistent rain. We've got ponchos and umbrellas and will make the best of it.

 

[PamNC]

Me too.

(We live in South Florida. This tropical mess is not like usual FL rain. Haven't re-booked yet, but checking dates.)

ETA: Oh Lordy, dh just called and said he saw a local forecast where the system has shifted even further west. His feeling........ we should "go for it"

OMG - seriously - shifting west? Hmmmm...

 

[goofy78]

I didn’t have the option of rescheduling so heading down for the long weekend from Boston. Here’s to hoping for SOME good weather!!

 

[eeyoresmom]

We're heading down from central MA. See you in the parks

 

[AngiTN]

Me too.

(We live in South Florida. This tropical mess is not like usual FL rain. Haven't re-booked yet, but checking dates.)

ETA: Oh Lordy, dh just called and said he saw a local forecast where the system has shifted even further west. His feeling........ we should "go for it"

Everything I'm seeing shows S FL and then the panhandle getting the worse of the rain. If y'all are driving it does look hard to avoid driving through bad weather, even if it ended up being ok in Orlando. I mean, it's looking like rain here and there for sure in central FL. Currently not calling for constant. Best news, what DH liked, temps are appealing

 

[lucas]

OMG - seriously - shifting west? Hmmmm...

Well, all the lines have it going more to the New Orleans area. (BTW, I am originally from New Orleans and all my family and friends still live there.) But, I just watched the local forecast and there still will be heavy rains all over FL, so I am STILL not sure what to do.

 

[lucas]

Just changed our arrival date from tomorrow (Fri) to Sat-Tues. That puts off deciding whether to reschedule the whole trip for 1 more day.

 

[lucas]

We just had some heavy rain here in South Florida. That was a big reminder of how I don't want to spend my vacation in that. (It is easy to think it is going to be fine when the weather outside is good!)