Will a Rental Crackdown Reset DVC Resale Prices?

[CWTC]

But sometimes, not getting the exact room you want isn't about walking - it's actually DVC members using their points to book what they want - and they're just aren't enough rooms at that particular time and location. In those situations, there isn't anything for Disney to change or "fix", short of building more DVC Club Level rooms at AKL, or lower-point studios at several existing resorts - and that's not likely to happen!

Yup!!!

 

[BeachClub2014]

I think because the practice impacts so few rooms or only for a few weeks out of the year, making changes that could have uninteneded consequences for your average owner, they really don't need to make a change.

I'm not sure how walking degrades the value, but I know it's a very important topic to some DVC owners. Its impact is quite small overall. I don't think it's nearly as prevalent as you would think reading about it here.

I see this point being made often, which begs the question: How many rooms or weeks need to be "impacted" before the issue becomes untenable? Never?

Anything that, if done by every member, would cause the product to “break”, should be fixed.

Exactly. I've started walking our reservations well in advance as a defensive move. I know that contradicts my opposition to walking reservations, but I guess we've adopted the "if you can't beat them, join them" mentality. I also believe that I am not alone in this.

If their are fewer people who actually want the room then rooms available for those nights, people will get the rooms by using a waitlist or going in and waiting to pick them back up....a little more work?

But sometimes, not getting the exact room you want isn't about walking - it's actually DVC members using their points to book what they want - and they're just aren't enough rooms at that particular time and location.

Unless, of course, those same rooms were walked by rental companies and are now only available for purchase.

 

[disdoc93]

I have been in and out of these boards for years, and it certainly seems like there are many more complaints about not getting rooms at the 11 month mark, walking reservations and confirmed "rental" reservations than I have ever seen. Certainly subjective but I assume this now constitutes an "impact"

 

[jason423]

I would be surprised if the walking on reservations is more for renting than people actually staying. It's so few rooms that are impacted and in most cases I dont think the renter should really care since the rental should be based on the amount of points they have to use. The only exception I could really see would be New Years at BW where they could charge a premium since everything is sold out. The majority of walking I think is really just people trying as best as possible to point stretch.

If Disney did crack down on renting it would definitely cause a downturn because you would see even more contracts come up for sale all at once. Still I dont anticipate them doing too much in that area. Taking that away from a typical owner would be pretty insane. I think the goal would be to crack down on those buying the cheap contract (instant sales, underpriced loaded contracts, etc...), stripping the contract for rentals, and then turning around and re-selling the contract. I guess they could add more monitoring levels to owners with over a certain number of points or blocking the 11 month window for any more than 1 or 2 reservations per year not in the owners name, but in general their web service is pretty poor to begin with and I cant see them sinking resources into that either.

 

[crvetter]

They don’t. They might at some point care about the fact that less people are booking rack rate rooms from Disney because advertisements from the board sponsor and David’s are plastered everywhere.

Would they though because even if they have the rooms they would have a very small number of the rooms available at Disney. I think the issue now really relates to the one broker who is clearly abusing the API and grabbing all the cheapest point rooms and holding them as spec rentals.

Walking is most likely done by owners trying to compete with the rental brokers, etc. the brokers don’t care too much the days they want as many days as possible (I’m certain they don’t have the resources to walk 100s of reservations, the api wouldn’t even allow that efficiently).

 

[@dvcdudes]

*EDIT* to remove specific reference.

Exactly. I think this change is about specifically targeting one major abuser of the system.

If DVC cracks down it will force one player to change their business model. This would temporarily put some stripped contracts on the market, causing an oversupply, but stripped contracts already sell at a discount. I think you'll see a 10-15% impact on prices at specific resorts (AKV, BWV) in the short-term if Disney does take action.

I'm being really obtuse, but who is that major abuser of the system? I'm curious

 

[crisi]

I think because the practice impacts so few rooms or only for a few weeks out of the year, making changes that could have uninteneded consequences for your average owner, they really don't need to make a change.

Again, while I don't use it...did a few times and won't unless its a unique situation...I honestly don't mind and much prefer having the flexibiity of what we have.

I think it affects more rooms and times of year - but then, I want Boardwalk Villas two bedroom units - and those have walking problems for huge swaths of the year - especially standard view, but also Boardwalk view - so 40% of the resort has issues for four to eight months out of the year. And BW is a unique case because of the lockoff thing. So for the average Boardwalk owner, I suspect the pluses outweigh the minuses. Some of the other scenarios ARE really small - like VAKL Concierge - year round but such a small portion of the resort. Some resorts, from postings, have moderate issues - but mostly with studios and for shorter portions of the year.

But I don't think Disney cares about the experience of owners - either if they'd put in something to stop or limit walking or if they don't. Walking isn't a bottom line thing for them.

 

[Brian Noble]

But I don't think Disney cares about the experience of owners

I'd put it a little differently: I don't think DVC cares (or knows how) to "improve" the booking process for rooms where demand exceeds supply. That's because no matter what they do, there will be more owners wanting some room-nights than there are room-nights, so someone is going to lose out. Changing the booking process only changes how the someone with the short stick ends up being chosen.

And realistically, the current model is probably better for DISers, who are more educated about the system than the average Member. That's because you can't walk if you don't know how to do it, or that its a thing, or you aren't wiling to get to the computer every few mornings for weeks to adjust your booking.

 

[eandt]

Being discuss on a place like this is not widespread, as we represent a fraction of the DVC owners. So, no it is not occurring to the degree that it is impacting most rooms and most of the year...and even if it was, the end result is the same.

If their are fewer people who actually want the room then rooms available for those nights, people will get the rooms by using a waitlist or going in and waiting to pick them back up....a little more work? Sure..but changes have consequences, and my guess is that they have run all the different situations and right now, see those consequences as not a good thing for the membership as a whole.

I can’t think of a wanted reservation that I didn’t ultimately get in our 3 short years of ownership. That being said we don’t travel during Thanksgiving or Christmas weeks as a matter of choice. Either way I don’t want my ability to rent my points/rent others points or to walk impacted by even more regulations should the need ever arise.

 

[Sandisw]

I know you and I disagree with this, as we’ve gone round and round several times. Just be honest with me, if every member walked every reservation, do you feel the booking process would be better or worse? No beating around the bush, straight answer please.

I think it would be different but not better or worse.

You just adjust what and when you try to get rooms.

 

[crisi]

I'd put it a little differently: I don't think DVC cares (or knows how) to "improve" the booking process for rooms where demand exceeds supply. That's because no matter what they do, there will be more owners wanting some room-nights than there are room-nights, so someone is going to lose out. Changing the booking process only changes how the someone with the short stick ends up being chosen.

And realistically, the current model is probably better for DISers, who are more educated about the system than the average Member. That's because you can't walk if you don't know how to do it, or that its a thing, or you aren't wiling to get to the computer every few mornings for weeks to adjust your booking.

And that may be why I have an issue with it. It shouldn't be a matter of "you know how to work the system" it should be a matter of "the system works as fairly as it can." If Disney taught people buying how to walk, I probably wouldn't have a problem with it. But its the secret handshake part of it......

 

[Lorana]

I'm being really obtuse, but who is that major abuser of the system? I'm curious

I don’t believe they can be talked about on the forums as I believe they are on the filter list, though you should be able to google them.

I’ve included the link here, since if it isn’t ***** out then you can see what we’re talking about. If it is, then we cannot discuss more directly.

https://rentals.*******.com/confirmed-reservations/

 

[kboo]

I know you and I disagree with this, as we’ve gone round and round several times. Just be honest with me, if every member walked every reservation, do you feel the booking process would be better or worse? No beating around the bush, straight answer please.

This wasn't directed at me, but I think people would adjust. I've gotten more relaxed about our late summer trips since we are flexible on days and it's such low cost in points *and* we aren't in studios any more, so as long as we book something in the 7-11 month window we are then fine to switch at 7 months if we want. And in that time frame, we've never not gotten what we wanted at 7 months! The only wait list we used was for a BCV studio BWV standard 2br lockoff and BWV boardwalk view 2br lockoff, and those came through around 2-4 months out.

(I swear I started typing this before @Sandisw posted)

Exactly. I've started walking our reservations well in advance as a defensive move. I know that contradicts my opposition to walking reservations, but I guess we've adopted the "if you can't beat them, join them" mentality. I also believe that I am not alone in this.

I didn't walk, then I walked for Xmas at VGF, now I am of the mind that 1br still probably don't need to be walked. There's walking for early December, too. I just looked online for 10 nights covering Christmas / New Year's which tends to be a time when a lot of people are really inflexible on time - and still, at 10.5 months out there are rooms available at all resorts. I did manage to book what I wanted over Christmas and New Year's. I probably would have been ok for everything I wanted this year, except the standard 2br at Riviera over NYE. (forgot to move my reservation forward and now it's waitlisted, but I have a standard 1br and my dad will just have to sleep on the murphy bed if he comes.) Eyeballing it, mostly the gaps are:

AKV - value and club
standard studios most other places
FULL availability at OKW and SSR

I also looked at the first long weekend in December (Dec 6-9) and these resorts have "no rooms are fully available" at 10 months:

BLT, AKV-J, VGF, BWV, BCV, BRV
Poly and CCV only have bungalows and cabins available.

Finally, just for yuks I looked for 1 night at the 11 month window (Jan 6-7) and the only categories obviously missing? AKV value and club, RIV tower studio, and RIV standard studio.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

And that may be why I have an issue with it. It shouldn't be a matter of "you know how to work the system" it should be a matter of "the system works as fairly as it can." If Disney taught people buying how to walk, I probably wouldn't have a problem with it. But its the secret handshake part of it......

But since 'walking' really is making a reservation and modifying it - all DVC members have the ability to do it. There's no real secret to it.

And since none of us actually know how prevalent walking really is (and we'll never have access to actual numbers), there's no real way to determine if changes are needed or would even help in any way! Some folks out here would lead you to think a very high percentage of reservations are walked. I'm on the other end of that spectrum - and while I'm not naive enough to say walking doesn't cause some members heartburn for a particular reservation now and then - it just can't be that widespread in comparison to all the reservations that are made at 11 months! It's the particular room types and particular times of the year at particular resorts - where demand exceeds supply. We're fortunate to travel during lesser demand times and look for rooms that aren't gone right at 11 months - so walking is of very little concern. If someone can't get the room or rooms of their choice at 11 months, the jump to walking being an issue is very quick. And I understand a level of frustration. I'm just not sure I've read a suggested 'fix' that would actually work without making the entire process even more complicated.

Curb the people who rent out hundreds of points every year against the rules of the timeshare. That will help with certain reservations. But reserve/modify? Probably not something to restrict.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I also looked at the first long weekend in December (Dec 6-9) and these resorts have "no rooms are fully available" at 10 months:

I saw that, too - and it's interesting. We go that time of year and always book at 11 months. But it does seem much busier in 2024 than previous years! Low points, Christmas must be a draw....

 

[kilik64]

If someone can't get the room or rooms of their choice at 11 months, the jump to walking being an issue is very quick.

This.

Or its the big bad rental companies doing their spec rentals with their bots that snatch all the rooms at .000001 seconds after they go live.

Never just simple supply and demand of people booking desired rooms for desired dates.

 

[Sandisw]

I see this point being made often, which begs the question: How many rooms or weeks need to be "impacted" before the issue becomes untenable? Never?


Exactly. I've started walking our reservations well in advance as a defensive move. I know that contradicts my opposition to walking reservations, but I guess we've adopted the "if you can't beat them, join them" mentality. I also believe that I am not alone in this.




Unless, of course, those same rooms were walked by rental companies and are now only available for purchase.

The point is that if you watch availability and see how many rooms stay open well into the 11 month window, even if everyone was walking, it wouldn't impact every single room in every category, on every day the same way.

If there are a 100 rooms and only 50 people want those rooms every day for the month of June, then walking or no walking, there will be always 50 rooms left.

But, if there are 10 rooms, and 100 people want the, walking or no walking, 90 people are getting shut out. And, with rooms like CL, that happens as rooms are never available at 8 am, pretty much 365 days a year.

Early December is the big culprit in terms of people who start walking rooms and it is at key resorts. Now, I get that people are upset that there could be companies out there using a computerized type program to pick up rooms that are in high demand and then renting them...but, even if walking is involved, that is the issue, and not the walk itself.

So, if DVD/DVC has now determined that the definition they have used for 17 years (I think it came out in 2007?) is no longer enough to curb memberships being used for commercial purposes, then they are doing what they need to do to change it moving forward...which is what many of us have always said....DVC sets the rules and until they feel the rules need an update, they must be content with what is occurring...and now they appear to finally have decided its time to update it.

 

[kboo]

I saw that, too - and it's interesting. We go that time of year and always book at 11 months. But it does seem much busier in 2024 than previous years! Low points, Christmas must be a draw....

Still, this is now looking after people have had 1 month to book, which is why I "compared" it to 11 months to the day today. (Still not the same because it's not Christmas). I am sure someone other than I has looked at the day to day availability for early December, but (again, qualitative finding) it seemed that booking after the walkers had passed was a possibility. Still have to be on the site a few days in a row, but doable.

I'm a parent with kids who don't want to / can't miss much school for Disney, so those weekends in December and January are something Iook forward to when I retire. And I'm willing to splurge on a larger unit or preferred view if need be. For us, Christmas, New Year's and Thanksgiving are the bigger fight.

 

[Sandisw]

I think it affects more rooms and times of year - but then, I want Boardwalk Villas two bedroom units - and those have walking problems for huge swaths of the year - especially standard view, but also Boardwalk view - so 40% of the resort has issues for four to eight months out of the year. And BW is a unique case because of the lockoff thing. So for the average Boardwalk owner, I suspect the pluses outweigh the minuses. Some of the other scenarios ARE really small - like VAKL Concierge - year round but such a small portion of the resort. Some resorts, from postings, have moderate issues - but mostly with studios and for shorter portions of the year.

But I don't think Disney cares about the experience of owners - either if they'd put in something to stop or limit walking or if they don't. Walking isn't a bottom line thing for them.

Right, but walking aside, if those rooms go right at 11 months every single day, then that means there is simply not enough of those rooms to satisfy the number of people who want to book them. And, with the 2 bedrooms being lock off, you are at the mercy of the studios...which, IMO, began to become much harder when they changed occupancy to 5

Walking isn't going to change those numbers...it is only going to change who might end up with the room. However, as a BWV owner, since you are not guaranteed any set view, there are still plenty of P/G rooms available year round that you would not be getting shut out at 8 am much of the year (if at all).

That is the point....walking doesn't change the number of rooms that exist or make a busy time a busy time. Now, as I have said, if they are cracking down on rentals for big memberships and those memberships were booking and renting popular rooms, that could impact the success fo some owners, but in the end, the majority will still be out of luck if there are more owners wanting the rooms than exist.

 

[Nabas]

I have no data to back it up, but it seems to me that if the renting issue was controlled better, the 'walking' situation would be even less of an issue. Walking seems to be an issue based on a few room types, and mostly based on the time of year the reservation is desired. So it seems to me the 'renters' are most likely to be walking to grab those very popular rooms and sell them back to the people who couldn't get them. Crack down on the renting, if possible - and perhaps that will open up a few additional reservation options for those who want to book a hard-to-get reservation.

But sometimes, not getting the exact room you want isn't about walking - it's actually DVC members using their points to book what they want - and they're just aren't enough rooms at that particular time and location. In those situations, there isn't anything for Disney to change or "fix", short of building more DVC Club Level rooms at AKL, or lower-point studios at several existing resorts - and that's not likely to happen!

Getting rid of walking won’t solve anything.

As you suggest, one “problem” is that there are more DVC members who want a certain room on a certain date then there are rooms available. On any given day, there almost certainly are more AKV members who want a Club Level Studio than the 5 that are available. In reality, this is not a problem but a characteristic of the system.

Disney tries to solve this by rebalancing the point chart. Yet despite recent point chart changes, late August continues to be easier to book than the rest of the year. AKV Club rooms continue to be nearly impossible to book. More change is needed.

Change things so that (for example) AKV Club Level costs even more points per night, and demand would decline. Start charging (for example) 50 points per night for an AKV Club Studio (and less for Standard) and see what happens to demand then.

Disney doesn’t need to ban walking to solve the problem. They need to reallocate points further so that demand levels with availability.

However, there does seem to be a relatively new problem. Some third party DVC rental companies appear to be grabbing thousands of the most highly desirable rooms and then renting them out as “confirmed reservations” for cash. This is a clear violation of the contract that we signed when we became DVC members, and Disney should do something about this.