why ROFR so different in value?

[hsmamato2]

I have looked over quite a few OKW listings for resale(which I have) and am a little surprised at what made it thru ROFR,it seems that the points vary between 58 and 75 per point....why? why the huge gap in cost- why ROFR one,and let others through? IS there any rhyme or reason?

 

[Buckeye Fan]

From what I've read on here, lots of people have tried to figure this out, and it seems that Disney buys back when Disney wants to buy back. I don't think anyone has ever really established a pattern or knows the reasons (e.g., does Disney need certain UYs for certain resorts, or do they want to keep the price per point at a certain level?).

We have definitely seen prices drop as a result of the market. We bought back in early 2007. AKV hadn't been announced yet, so SSR was being sold. It was normally priced at $100 per point, but Dis was offering a friend and family promo for $15 off. I followed the ROFR board closely, and $82 was really "iffy" and anything below $82 was being purchased back by Dis. All of the resorts have seen a drop in price because Disney is letting them go through. If they were buying them back, the prices would have stayed higher. As the market rebounds, it will be interested to see what happens with ROFR.

 

[5forDiz]

When you look at ROFR thread here which is a good source of info it is possible that all details may not always be noted like who payed closing, MFs and it is possible that those factors may have played into Disney's decision to rofr or not. I do agree with what Buckeye Fan stated that there really doesn't seem to be an established pattern.

Here is link to thread from 2009 here on the Dis that you may find interesting; it discusses why or why not rofr may be exercised, click link in first post to see an analysis done by that poster

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2156883&highlight=why+are+some+contracts+rofr+d

 

[DenLo]

From what my DH and I have observed in regards to OKW resale bids that are passed or ROFR'd the big difference in price per point is that the really large contracts (500 points) are cheaper priced, often in the $50's. The smaller contracts of 25 to 50 or even 75 points are higher priced, usually in the $70's. Also the contracts that have the extended contract sell at a higher rate per point in the $70's for contracts of 200 points and in the $80's for smaller contracts of 25 - 70 points.

As far as to which contracts Disney will ROFR, we think that Disney is just like the rest of us, always looking for the bargain. The contracts that give the best price over all is one that will be ROFR'd. What I mean by that is the total cost is considered: closing costs, if the buyer pays, it's a good deal; MF's - if the buyer pays it's a good deal, if the buyer pays for both last years MF's and this years MF's it's a better deal. If the contract offers all of last years points and all of this years and next years. These fully loaded contracts are attractive to Disney as well as it is to us. The final wild card that makes it really unpredictable to determine if Disney will ROFR is demand. If Disney has a customer that wants to buy direct on a closed property and if Disney doesn't have the points they will ROFR to get them. I also believe that Disney sometimes keeps an inventory of points with various use years. So that could be another factor why Disney ROFR's. Also if resale price per point is too low on contracts that are currently being sold by Disney like BLT and AKV, then they'll probably be ROFR'd. Once again Disney could make a great deal of money by buying low and selling high.

As a previous poster stated, who really knows why and when Disney will ROFR. So when you decide to buy resale, you bid the amount you are willing to spend and just hope Disney will waive ROFR.

 

[disneynutz]

I think that Disney takes everything into consideration when they exercise ROFR including UY. If it makes business sense, they exercise.

Bill

 

[Dean]

I have looked over quite a few OKW listings for resale(which I have) and am a little surprised at what made it thru ROFR,it seems that the points vary between 58 and 75 per point....why? why the huge gap in cost- why ROFR one,and let others through? IS there any rhyme or reason?

They're not going to throw money away but the main reason for ROFR really is to keep you guessing.

 

[Buckeye Fan]

They're not going to throw money away but the main reason for ROFR really is to keep you guessing.

I completely agree. If they have a business need (e.g., need a certain UY for a certain resort), I think they buy if they find a good price. Otherwise, I think they buy back a good deal randomly to keep the price per point stable. That's just MHO (with absolutely NOTHING to support it) though!

 

[DVCAustralia]

I emphasise that I have no 'inside' knowledge, however I get the impression that OKW is a unique case and will be for a while to come.
The main issue that sets it apart is the botched extension which means that there is now no clean break in the expiry of contracts, a potential logistical nightmare. However it also means that Disney has an extra advantage, that is, it can transform a 2042 contract to a 2057 contract for a fraction of the cost of other buyers; a side benefit of which is more and more contracts will expire in 2057.
Further, Disney seems to have developed a lucretive side business in selling 2057 OKW contracts to new buyers. Certainly when I looked into DVC and bought an OKW resale a few years ago I could not understand why you would pay more, or even the same price, for SSR which has three less years at the back end and a much higher points table.