Why is Disney overstating some SB times?

[ks-man]

I just got back from a trip last week and have been reading a lot about the impact of FP+ on standby wait times. I'm guessing most of the data comes from Disney's posted wait times and that gets to a very important point that I and others have been seeing. Mainly that many of the wait times posted by Disney both at the entrance and in the app (I assume these are the same) are often overstated and sometimes drastically so.

I understand that this isn't always the case and from my experience it seems to be at its worst early in the day but I certainly saw it throughout my trip. We were at MK on Friday and in the morning (before the rain started) the time posted for BTTM was 15 minutes at about 9:20am. We were through in 5 minutes. My wife took my son to Magic Carpets where it said 10 minutes and the wait was the two minutes it took them to walk through to the front.

We went to Under the Sea at about 9:50am and my wife said not to do it b/c it said 30 minutes but I told her there was no way and sure enough we couldn't have been waiting more than 8-10 minutes. By mid-day Dumbo said 25 minutes and our buzzer chimed about 12 minutes after we first got into line. On Tuesday we waited under 10 minutes for Tomorrowland Speedway when it was posted as being a 25 minute wait around 11am.

We didn't do any of the longer waits (45 minutes or more) so I can't comment how accurate those were and I recognize that it is difficult to get truly accurate times for waiting that can be impacted by so many different things. Even still though, from my experience it definitely seems that Disney is erring very conservatively on the high side with their posted waits.

I'm not sure if this is b/c they are planning for FP+ that don't end up being used or if they are intentionally going high as far fewer people will complain about a shorter wait than posted as opposed to a longer wait than was posted. I'm also not advocating that people get in a line and simply assume the posted time is wrong. However when comparing the posted wait times vs. the wait times of years past we certainly should make sure that it is an apples to apples comparison. If Disney is factoring in added time to the posted time in preparation of FP+ that aren't used then it isn't correct to say that the wait times have gone up vs. years past.

 

[mesaboy2]

Underpromise, overdeliver. Always been this way.

 

[Reddog1134]

Underpromise, overdeliver. Always been this way.

It's called the "Scotty Principle".

 

[mesaboy2]

It's called the "Scotty Principle".

Never heard that, but I instantly got it. I'm such a geek.

 

[wisblue]

Underpromise, overdeliver. Always been this way.

Plus, especially early in the morning I think they like to have inflated times on some of the most popular attractions to see if they can scare a few people off and spread out the crowd a little.

With rides with FP that don't "sell out" it may also be difficult to predict how many FP returns there will be during the standby wait time, and that gives them another reason to pad the posted time.

 

[mesaboy2]

Plus, especially early in the morning I think they like to have inflated times on some of the most popular attractions to see if they can scare a few people off and spread out the crowd a little.

With rides with FP that don't "sell out" it may also be difficult to predict how many FP returns there will be during the standby wait time, and that gives them another reason to pad the posted time.

Also of course at the end of the night. It's the silent "move along, nothing to see here".

 

[Babe the Blue Ox]

Midway Mania is by far the worst about this. During the last hour of operation, I've never seen the posted time less than 50-55 minutes. The wait is generally 15-20 minutes tops.

 

[sretav]

During our 6 park days at all 4 parks a few weeks ago, we were asked at least half a dozen times to carry the red card through so I think they do gauge the wait times quite regularly.

We walked past Under the Sea at one point and I said to my husband that maybe 30 minutes was too long for our 4 young daughters to wait. The CM overheard us and said it was probably only 15 and it really was only 10 to 15. The long queue at Under the Sea makes it almost always a walk-on or at least it was the 7 times we did it.

 

[mikedoyleblogger]

Underpromise, overdeliver. Always been this way.

Agreed. They overstate SB on both coasts for crowd control, to try to push visitors towards less popular rides with shorter waits. As OP has figured out, wait-time apps are often more reliable.

 

[SuperRob]

During our 6 park days at all 4 parks a few weeks ago, we were asked at least half a dozen times to carry the red card through so I think they do gauge the wait times quite regularly.

Yup, so Disney knows EXACTLY what the wait time really is. They just don't always post that for the variety of reasons you've read here.

 

[Texas Barbie]

We were there last week too, and also found that to be true. The only lone we found that could be counted on to be accurate was Peter Pan. It took just as long (or longer) than stated.

 

[Minnie222]

We were at ETWB at Magic Kingdom. At 11pm, the sign said 20 minutes standby wait. We found out what it means is: there is no one in line, you have to wait until 20 people arrive before they start a show.

 

[ImagineersApprentice]

During our 6 park days at all 4 parks a few weeks ago, we were asked at least half a dozen times to carry the red card through so I think they do gauge the wait times quite regularly.

The thing about FLIK cards (do they still call them that?) is that they measure the card holders wait. If no one enters the line behind the card holder and it takes the card holder 60 mins, it will record 60 mins. However, since no on entered behind that card holder the wait would actually be zero.

I'm hoping the magic bands will improve the wait times a bit more. Maybe use the speed of the line to calculate a better wait time? They now have a lot more data points to use.

 

[mesaboy2]

The thing about FLIK cards (do they still call them that?) is that they measure the card holders wait. If no one enters the line behind the card holder and it takes the card holder 60 mins, it will record 60 mins. However, since no on entered behind that card holder the wait would actually be zero.

I'm hoping the magic bands will improve the wait times a bit more. Maybe use the speed of the line to calculate a better wait time? They now have a lot more data points to use.

They do. But the FP+ scans are last done at the merge point, not the loading area. There will always be some delta that depends on the attraction. And of course there are no scans in standby, the queue everyone wants to know.

 

[2Tiggies]

I'm actually taking the recent reports of inflated wait times for standby as a positive. Until fairly recently the wait times were being understated and people were joining a 15 minute line and waiting 40. It looks like they are getting their estimates back into line with what they previously were (inflated posted waits) and I'm ok with that because I understand that system; it's familiar to me so I like it

 

[wdwlovin'family]

I was wondering about this today, as a matter of fact. I am excited for our trip and I was looking at my MDE app and it stated that the wait time for living with the land was 45 minutes! And then, it said that journey into imagination was 35 minutes! I had a hard time believing either of those.

 

[keithandmissy]

But the FP+ scans are last done at the merge point, not the loading area. There will always be some delta that depends on the attraction. And of course there are no scans in standby, the queue everyone wants to know.

I believe with the long-range RFID readers Disney can track line waits and location data points of anyone wearing a MagicBand. So, as they become more prevalent they could track your wait in the standby queue without you ever touching your band to anything. This would also be useful in tracking time spent in certain stores or restaurants, etc.

Here's the quote from the WDW website hinting at this, "MagicBands can also be read by long-range readers to deliver amazing personalized experiences, as well as provide information that helps us improve the overall experience in our parks. You don’t have to do anything beyond being nearby to interact with long-range readers. They just work—like magic! "

 

[JeremyGNJ]

I believe with the long-range RFID readers Disney can track line waits and location data points of anyone wearing a MagicBand. So, as they become more prevalent they could track your wait in the standby queue without you ever touching your band to anything. This would also be useful in tracking time spent in certain stores or restaurants, etc.

Here's the quote from the WDW website hinting at this, "MagicBands can also be read by long-range readers to deliver amazing personalized experiences, as well as provide information that helps us improve the overall experience in our parks. You don’t have to do anything beyond being nearby to interact with long-range readers. They just work—like magic! "

Beep beep beep....we noticed you're about to leave the park without a mickey balloon! Would you like $1.00-off coupon before you go?

...like magic.

 

[disneyhousewife]

Beep beep beep....we noticed you're about to leave the park without a mickey balloon! Would you like $1.00-off coupon before you go? ...like magic.

Don't give them any ideas.

 

[iheartjuppy]

When we rode a ride last week, the posted SB time was something like 40 minutes (we had FP+). When we stopped at the second FP+ terminal there was a slight delay after we scanned, and I happened to glance back at the CM's screen that display's the name of the MB holders as they scan. Beneath the two boxes for MB Names, there was a line that said "Actual Standby Time 27 minutes" or something very similar. When we exited the ride, it still said standby 40 minutes on the public display. Next ride with a long SB queue (TSMM, Pooh, etc.), someone with FP+ should try to glance back at the FP+ screen and see what it says.