Why do I torture myself?

[Klayfish]

On the topic of crowd calendar versus wait time calendar, my experience is that wait time matters a whole lot more to me than how many people are on the walkways.

That may be how you view it (which I totally agree with), but I don't think that's how most people use the crowd calendar. We see it here over and over. Posts asking how crowded a park will be and whether they want to go or not because TP said the crowd will be a 9 or 3.1412. Conversely, people will say "Oh, I'm so excited, this crowd calendar said it'll be a crowd level 2, so the park won't be crowded". They're referring to bodies in the park. And we all know that on days when WDW expects or gets a low crowd (which only they know), wait times can be manipulated through staffing, etc... Well intentioned or not, I just think they're trying to sell snake oil, and people are too reliant on it.

 

[ID_Dismom]

I was coming here to ask about this actually! I woke up to the same 2 emails, for our trip the first 10 days of June. We didn't plan around the crowd calendar, but it was a little scary seeing it jump from 5-7 to 9-10! I was initially using the calendars to plan park days but finally threw that strategy out the window. Sounds like that's the best plan? On our last trip (October) we planned our HS day on a day it was supposed to be a 6, and it was insane. They then showed it as an actual 10 after the fact. Learned my lesson then.

 

[mkla2015]

Same! We're going Feb 24- March 2 and I was pretty surprised to see some 9s and 10s in there. I expect the week before and maybe until Tuesday the 26th to be busy because of race weekend but I doubt that whole week will be THAT busy. We shall see. Either way I won't let it ruin my trip!

 

[KMarston]

Our trip in the next few weeks has increased. If it's just wait times that's not an issue but if it's crowds that makes it harder for us. I guess we'll wait and see! I had just checked TP crowd predictions yesterday thinking I was close enough that it might be more accurate! I was actually very happy with my park day choices! Then today happened! Oh well, we'll make the best of it!

 

[disneyseniors]

Doesn't the Princess Half Marathon run towards the end of February? If so, then the next week will be crowded. How do I know? We booked FEb 27 thru March 7th this year and it was crowded with the post marathon crowd.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

That may be how you view it (which I totally agree with), but I don't think that's how most people use the crowd calendar. We see it here over and over. Posts asking how crowded a park will be and whether they want to go or not because TP said the crowd will be a 9 or 3.1412. Conversely, people will say "Oh, I'm so excited, this crowd calendar said it'll be a crowd level 2, so the park won't be crowded". They're referring to bodies in the park. And we all know that on days when WDW expects or gets a low crowd (which only they know), wait times can be manipulated through staffing, etc... Well intentioned or not, I just think they're trying to sell snake oil, and people are too reliant on it.

Some of them are certainly taking about bodies but some are using crowds as short hand for having to wait. In posts about how "crowded" the parks are, for every post showing a picture if the crowd in the choke point by IASW (or taking about it) there are posts pointing to the hour wait for teacups or the 3 hour wait for space. It's both - but which is more importantly varies person to person obviously.

 

[Grammy4Lizzy]

Two weeks from today is MLK weekend. There was no way that would ever turn into a 3/4. HS is busy anyway and add in that weekend.... It is wrong to ever expect that CL 3/4.

 

[KarenP64]

Well intentioned or not, I just think they're trying to sell snake oil, and people are too reliant on it.

Has anyone else read what easy WDW has said about TP being dishonest with their #s?

 

[tinkpower]

Has anyone else read what easy WDW has said about TP being dishonest with their #s?

No but I'd like to. Where can I find that information.

 

[cavepig]

I've never looked at crowd calendars. We just pick the parks and days and go with it. No way they can predict the future on crowds, too many variables in motion.

 

[fiasco32]

Anyway, we are not bothered by the crowds. As long as you utilize extra magic hours, events that give you more park time and park hop it should be fine no matter what. Worse to worse, enjoy more shows which are easier to get into.

I have to say I personally disagree with this and think your mileage really varies on this from person to person as it relates to how much crowd levels affect the overall DW experience.

I have been at the parks at a 9/10 level and at a 3/4 level, and for me there is no question there is a difference in my enjoyment between the two. And it has little to do with how long I'm standing in lines for rides.

People are by far more rude, more disrespectful, more "looking out for #1" when there are more crowds. It's harder to go to the bathroom. Harder to maneuver from place to place. Harder to get up and go get a ketchup packet from the counter. Everything is harder and more cumbersome when the crowds are higher.

Are there strategies you can implement to "deal with" the crowds? Absolutely. There are things you can do to mitigate some of it, to stand in line less, to be smarter with park hopping and FPs. But no amount of park hopping or FPing can change the fact more people equals more discomfort in general. For me, at least.

 

[tsme]

I received two emails also this morning. Our trip is the week of Jan 13th. Every day has jumped by 3 or more points, our AK day was the worse by going up to an 8 . We’ve been going every year, sometimes twice a year & this will be the only time we’ve ever visited a park that’s marked as an 8. So not thrilled, but I’m hoping it’s not as bad as I’m imaging & maybe TP is wrong. But if they’re not, we’ll try to go with the flow as much as possible. It’s still better to be at Disney than anywhere else.

 

[KarenP64]

No but I'd like to. Where can I find that information.

 

[yulilin3]

Out of curiosity, for those that buy and use the crowd calendars, would you continue to use if your trip is at a 7/8 but ends up being at a 4/5?
On the same note would you continue to use and buy if it was the opposite scenario?

 

[dolewhipdreams]

No but I'd like to. Where can I find that information.

I had to do some googling but you can find it if you search easy WDW and TouringPlans. It’s a post from 2014.

I’m not going to say TP is unerring and without fault but you can obviously tell that the article is written from a place of competition and is biased. TPs processes have also been substantially updated in the last 4 years.

But again it’s definitely something to bear in mind when utilizing TP- they have been wrong before (many times) and sometimes majorly. While I respect TP for using data to drive predictions, I highly discourage taking them as gospel.

 

[DWFamilyof6]

Out of curiosity, for those that buy and use the crowd calendars, would you continue to use if your trip is at a 7/8 but ends up being at a 4/5?
On the same note would you continue to use and buy if it was the opposite scenario?

No, unfortunately I won’t be buying again. I enjoy the line app and other info on the site but I’m super disappointed in the crowd predictor for this trip. If it not a crowd prediction but a line wait time prediction then that’s what it should be stated as. At this point from everything I’ve read in this thread, their blog post today, and other sites crowd predictions(Kenny The Pirate has low crowds to moderate for my week for ex). I have no idea what to expect. Which brings me back to I’m not depending on crowd predictions again which is what I think TP bases a lot of the fee on.

 

[DWFamilyof6]

I received two emails also this morning. Our trip is the week of Jan 13th. Every day has jumped by 3 or more points, our AK day was the worse by going up to an 8 . We’ve been going every year, sometimes twice a year & this will be the only time we’ve ever visited a park that’s marked as an 8. So not thrilled, but I’m hoping it’s not as bad as I’m imaging & maybe TP is wrong. But if they’re not, we’ll try to go with the flow as much as possible. It’s still better to be at Disney than anywhere else.

My AK day went from a 6 to a 10. So I feel your pain.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Out of curiosity, for those that buy and use the crowd calendars, would you continue to use if your trip is at a 7/8 but ends up being at a 4/5?
On the same note would you continue to use and buy if it was the opposite scenario?

If I paid for TP only for the crowd calendars then I would have stopped paying for them, yes. I buy a subscription for the touring plan tools which I find very helpful. At the same time, I think that there are a couple issues going on. The first is the fallacy that Disney is always busy. Um no. It's not. I will happily take my early May dates at approximately 5 then a Thanksgiving and Christmas week of 10. It is noticably and demonstractively different.

Secondly many or most people here giving advice have gone to Disney many many times. Of course you don't need touring plans. But the whole reason I am on this site is because I told a coworker whose daughter did the CP that Thanksgiving must be a great time to go because everyone is going to be home with their family or Black Fri shopping. To her credit she didn't laugh too hard. She just sent me here. Gut feel and personal experience is what gets people in trouble, coming in the busy seasons not knowing that FP is free. TP is a great inexpensive way for people to get data. Not everyone wants to be on a message board. I do agree that it needs to be taken with a grain of salt and worrying about a change of 1 or 2 levels is not helpful. And yes people do get lead down the path to do that which is unfortunate but to me the tools I get are valuable even when they are not always 100%. They were better than my gut feel that Thanksgiving was going to be a slow time.

Also, with regard to a 10 on the scale encompassing more than one level of crowd - it has to. That is how the math works. It is the same as the child growth charts or their standardized scores. 99th percentile encompasses a large variation because it has to cover everything that 1 out of 100 kids could be. That means it includes your 5 foot tall 6th grader and a child of professional basketball players who is 7 feet in 6th grade. It doesn't not make the whole scale invalid.

 

[Jetta8300]

We are going to first week of March and this is concerning! We chose this week thinking it would be moderate crowds since people don't usually have spring break the first week of March yet. And now the week is all 10's when on every other crowd calendar that exists predicts 5-6? Isn't that a bit drastic? 10's every day? I'm trying to take it with a grain of salt since I think the reasoning on the blog post explaination sounds a little outlandish considering the first week of march is not traditionally spring break...it says:

"Thanksgiving 2018 was busier than expected. Our models treat that as evidence that other peak weeks will be busier too. That is partly why we see large increases during early March, a big week for Spring Break. However, the second half of March sees changes on this update in the downward direction."

Is the first week of March really a "peak week..."? I don't even think Disney thinks so considering the pricing.

 

[SaintsManiac]

If I paid for TP only for the crowd calendars then I would have stopped paying for them, yes. I buy a subscription for the touring plan tools which I find very helpful. At the same time, I think that there are a couple issues going on. The first is the fallacy that Disney is always busy. Um no. It's not. I will happily take my early May dates at approximately 5 then a Thanksgiving and Christmas week of 10. It is noticably and demonstractively different.

Secondly many or most people here giving advice have gone to Disney many many times. Of course you don't need touring plans. But the whole reason I am on this site is because I told a coworker whose daughter did the CP that Thanksgiving must be a great time to go because everyone is going to be home with their family or Black Fri shopping. To her credit she didn't laugh too hard. She just sent me here. Gut feel and personal experience is what gets people in trouble, coming in the busy seasons not knowing that FP is free. TP is a great inexpensive way for people to get data. Not everyone wants to be on a message board. I do agree that it needs to be taken with a grain of salt and worrying about a change of 1 or 2 levels is not helpful. And yes people do get lead down the path to do that which is unfortunate but to me the tools I get are valuable even when they are not always 100%. They were better than my gut feel that Thanksgiving was going to be a slow time.

Also, with regard to a 10 on the scale encompassing more than one level of crowd - it has to. That is how the math works. It is the same as the child growth charts or their standardized scores. 99th percentile encompasses a large variation because it has to cover everything that 1 out of 100 kids could be. That means it includes your 5 foot tall 6th grader and a child of professional basketball players who is 7 feet in 6th grade. It doesn't not make the whole scale invalid.

And I promise you that someone else went on a “level 5” day in May and thought it was wall to wall people.

Crowds are subjective. You simply should not put a number on it.