(When) will DVC go “negative”?

[RoseGold]

Vero's dues are quite a bit higher at $14.89, at least unless you have a rare subsidized contract.

Sorry wrong line. So maybe slightly better math?.....

 

[WinterSolider]

The brutal CFW math is why I think we will only see higher point charts going forward. I’m not saying they will be higher than VGF or Poly, but at least on par with BLT and maybe even RIV. Disney experimented with low point charts and higher dues and the DVC community has largely said “hard pass.”

Points charts have been consistently in line with cash prices at every single DVC resort except for Old Key West, which is ostensibly "too cheap" in points terms and should instead have a points chart that looks like Saratoga Springs.

If you want to know what kind of points chart a resort will have, look at the cash prices at the same resorts (or type of resort, if that exact resort is brand new). CFW has low points charts *because* CFW is cheaper to book with cash. "What prices can we charge our cash guests?" and "what points can we charge our DVC members" are tightly correlated.

Said another way, one DVC point gets you roughly the same amount of dollars-of-rack-rate value across all DVC resorts.

People freaked out about "points inflation" when Riviera opened because no non-monorail resort had ever seen points charts that high, but what has become clear since then is that Disney views the Skyliner as the Monorail 2.0. So it was Riviera's location and transportation that they feel justified the higher points chart, not just some general trend that points charts go up over time. I would have thought the inflation panic would have subsided after everyone predicted that VDH would have higher charts than Grand Cal just to be proven wrong, but that didn't stop the speculation.

 

[RoseGold]

Points charts have been consistently in line with cash prices at every single DVC resort except for Old Key West, which is ostensibly "too cheap" in points terms and should instead have a points chart that looks like Saratoga Springs.

That matters because OKW's "too cheap" chart made not enough points to maintain and higher dues, arguably also Vero and HHI's problem, not enough points and "too cheap." Riveria has the reverse with a "too expensive" chart, but low dues, decent location, and at least a couple points below flagship. Charts and direct prices go one direction over time, and that's up. All have moved in lockstep over time.

CFW has got it all. Bad location, high price, high dues, resale restrictions. Obviously everyone is underwater, like any direct buy, but this one really could flip to negative.

 

[WinterSolider]

Charts and direct prices go one direction over time, and that's up. All have moved in lockstep over time.

Charts have not gone up over time.

Charts have *appeared* to go up but that's because the newer resorts have been Magic Kingdom (Monorail specifically in most cases) and Skyliner. If Disney built a new golf course DVC resort with only bus transportation tomorrow, its point chart would look like Saratoga Springs, not Poly Tower.

DVC gets more expensive because the price-per-point has gone up, not because the points-per-night have gone up.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think there's also an underappreciated psychological barrier at $20. It's just a round number, so it becomes "famous" among even those who are new to renting points. It sticks in their head that $20 is a fair price, $18 is a good price, $22 is fine for Grand Cal and Animal Kingdom Value, and anything above that is a ripoff.

Whenever that dam breaks, it might break hard towards $25 rather than trickling up slowly. It'll look more like a step-function.

I agree with this logic.

Most of the major rental sites are charging $25pp for what they have dubbed Premium Resorts.

As always, a lot of this depends on how much Disney can command in cash prices.

 

[RoseGold]

Charts have *appeared* to go up but that's because the newer resorts have been Magic Kingdom (Monorail specifically in most cases) and Skyliner.

I guess the outlier is CFW, which I consider the worst location, floorplan, and amenities possible at WDW. The flip side to that bargain chart is the high dues.

 

[muppets3d]

People say the points charts go up, but CCV's points chart isn't that high...it's basically BRV's with some slight deviations.

 

[WinterSolider]

I guess the outlier is CFW, which I consider the worst location, floorplan, and amenities possible at WDW. The flip side to that bargain chart is the high dues.

Right right, everything I said excluded the impact of dues.

I don't love the CFW layout either, but I do like seeing Disney experiment with layouts besides the standard DS/1BR/2BR/3BRGV. More variety is good.

 

[muppets3d]

Right right, everything I said excluded the impact of dues.

I don't love the CFW layout either, but I do like seeing Disney experiment with layouts besides the standard DS/1BR/2BR/3BRGV. More variety is good.

And sometimes they strike gold like the tower/duo studios. Not for everybody or every trip, but for enough people that they are in healthy demand.

Honestly I think if they would take out that extra bathroom sink and put in a stackable washer/dryer, at least speaking for myself my main complaint with the cabins would be gone. Sorry but I'm not schlepping my laundry to some remote laundry room and paying with quarters in what is supposed to be a deluxe DVC resort experience.

 

[WinterSolider]

And sometimes they strike gold like the tower/duo studios. Not for everybody or every trip, but for enough people that they are in healthy demand.

Honestly I think if they would take out that extra bathroom sink and put in a stackable washer/dryer, at least speaking for myself my main complaint with the cabins would be gone. Sorry but I'm not schlepping my laundry to some remote laundry room and paying with quarters in what is supposed to be a deluxe DVC resort experience.

Still holding out hope for a King Studio.

 

[muppets3d]

Still holding out hope for a King Studio.

The duo studios at PIT are big enough for a King. Why didn't they do it?

 

[Patmcpsu]

Charts have not gone up over time.

Charts have *appeared* to go up but that's because the newer resorts have been Magic Kingdom (Monorail specifically in most cases) and Skyliner. If Disney built a new golf course DVC resort with only bus transportation tomorrow, its point chart would look like Saratoga Springs, not Poly Tower.

DVC gets more expensive because the price-per-point has gone up, not because the points-per-night have gone up.

LSL will be a good barometer about whether point chart inflation actually exists or not. By Deluxe Resort standards, it seems pretty mediocre in every facet (not many details confirmed about the resort itself though).

 

[WinterSolider]

LSL will be a good barometer about whether point chart inflation actually exists or not. By Deluxe Resort standards, it seems pretty mediocre in every facet (not many details confirmed about the resort itself though).

Yes, LSL versus CCV/BRV is the comparison I'm most interested in.

 

[tidefan]

And sometimes they strike gold like the tower/duo studios. Not for everybody or every trip, but for enough people that they are in healthy demand.

Honestly I think if they would take out that extra bathroom sink and put in a stackable washer/dryer, at least speaking for myself my main complaint with the cabins would be gone. Sorry but I'm not schlepping my laundry to some remote laundry room and paying with quarters in what is supposed to be a deluxe DVC resort experience.

To counterpoint... Demand to stay the units is very different than demand to purchase units. Other than the middle of summer, CFW is proving to be very competitive at 7 months. We could not get in for this Mid-December/Early-January, for instance. I think that there are VERY POPULAR for bookings by members, for as much as we can talk about what a bad deal it is for direct points there, it is an awesome use of points at 7 months from other properties.

I do wish they offered a discount to members on Golf Carts like they do on the Pet Fee.

 

[airjay75]

LSL will be a good barometer about whether point chart inflation actually exists or not. By Deluxe Resort standards, it seems pretty mediocre in every facet (not many details confirmed about the resort itself though).

I’ve said it before but I think LSL is going to come in between RIV and PIT. But, I don’t think it’s on account of point inflation. I think Disney will find a way to sell it whether that be the lazy river, the large size of the resort/rooms, possible increased options with CFW, and simply being a completely brand new MK resort (not just an addition or conversion). You can justify higher rack rates when something is new and shiny. You couldn’t really do that with CCV because the resort wasn’t new and the 2 BR and under rooms were actually smaller than BRV equivalents.

Now, will those higher rack rates hold up over time given the location of LSL? Not sure. But, by then, all the points will be long sold.

 

[muppets3d]

To counterpoint... Demand to stay the units is very different than demand to purchase units. Other than the middle of summer, CFW is proving to be very competitive at 7 months. We could not get in for this Mid-December/Early-January, for instance. I think that there are VERY POPULAR for bookings by members, for as much as we can talk about what a bad deal it is for direct points there, it is an awesome use of points at 7 months from other properties.

I do wish they offered a discount to members on Golf Carts like they do on the Pet Fee.

They have only declared like 60 cabins to the trust so far, so on any given day that's how many members will be able to book.

 

[WinterSolider]

To counterpoint... Demand to stay the units is very different than demand to purchase units. Other than the middle of summer, CFW is proving to be very competitive at 7 months. We could not get in for this Mid-December/Early-January, for instance. I think that there are VERY POPULAR for bookings by members, for as much as we can talk about what a bad deal it is for direct points there, it is an awesome use of points at 7 months from other properties.

I do wish they offered a discount to members on Golf Carts like they do on the Pet Fee.

Which makes sense given the points chart.

In terms of pure value, you want to own at a cheap-dues-high-points resort, then use those points to stay at a high-dues-cheap-points resort.

 

[muppets3d]

Which makes sense given the points chart.

In terms of pure value, you want to own at a cheap-dues-high-points resort, then use those points to stay at a high-dues-cheap-points resort.

We all should have bought table maximum at VGF during the fire sale, in other words.

 

[RoseGold]

I think that there are VERY POPULAR for bookings by members, for as much as we can talk about what a bad deal it is for direct points there, it is an awesome use of points at 7 months from other properties.

Wow, just flipping through some availability, it looks more booked than even the usual good value suspects: BLT 1BR, BW 3BR, even OKW 3BR. It really is a cheap booking if you have blue points.

 

[walt34]

I think Disney will find a way to sell it whether that be the lazy river, the large size of the resort/rooms, possible increased options with CFW, and simply being a completely brand new MK resort (not just an addition or conversion)

Skyliner to the TTC?