No one really knows. There seems to be little rhyme or reason as to when Disney releases AP rates. And now with the whole new MYW ticketing, I would say all bets are off with regards to historical data.
I would book where you can stay comfortably, and if and when AP rates do come out, switch your reservation then.
FWIW--we were lucky enough to score AP discounts in Jan of 2003 and 2004 (once at PO-R and once at the Ft Wilderness Cabins).
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