What's the deal with the crowd calendars?

[MissBelle]

I think I have looked at almost everyone online and for the last week in January, most of them say it's a really low crowd time, but Touring plans has it at 4,5 and 6! I followed touring plans last time I went to the world they said it was lower crowd and it was not!!!! I'm nervous now
Which crowd calendar do you use and has it been pretty accurate?

 

[bsj1701]

I'm not sure how crowd calendars work. I assume they come up with their data by at least partially using a number of years of records for their calculations. I think attendance has spiked in the last 1-2 years partially due to FP+ and MDE. It may take a little while for figures to become more accurate. If anyone knows how the calendars are done, please share. They haven't been accurate in my recent experiences either!

 

[dwheaton]

The Touring Plans calendar isn't really based on attendance. They're looking at waits in line, and that impacts the numbers they use. Prior to FP+, I felt like the numbers were accurate. All the changes to the mid-tier lines and waits has seemed to mess with their calculations a lot more. It's also tricky because there can be days where the parks feel more crowded but the wait times aren't that much longer. It's strange, but I've noticed that there seem to be a lot more people just walking around than there used to be. It's possible that's also related to FP+.

 

[hakepb]

EasyWDW's crowd calander are calculated by comparing the last 6 months of actual crowds and the next 6 months of projected crowds.
A 1 is the "best" time to visit and a 10 is the "worst".
Comparing an upcoming 4 to a previous year's 4 isn't valid. (I would be loony if I told you to go to WDW in January of 2008)

There are fewer "1's" than there used to be. Disney is very good at promoting filler events like marathons.

Basically, a projected 4 should be better than a projected 7 ... and that is all it means.

 

[Alesia]

I haven't found Touring Plans to get accurate in years.

 

[minnie mum]

I've been using easywdw for a few years now and find it pretty reliable. Josh has the crowds predicted at 2-6 with the least crowded days mid week, which is logical. Attendance has risen and even a 2 today is much more crowded than a 2 5 years ago. But its still a heck of a lot less crowded than a 7. The only way to avoid crowds is to stay home.

 

[Micca]

Think of crowd calendars like weather forecasts: Sometimes they get it right, some times they don't. There can be a "slight chance of rain", but it rains 4 inches that day. I think it's also open to interpretation, just because it's only a "3" crowd day doesn't mean it isn't crowded at all, it just means that there are more days where it will be even busier. I'd also pay attention to the recommendation for "best Park", I think that makes a big difference

 

[Delirium]

It's all relative. A listed crowd of 5 is not five times more crowded than a 1. Nor, can a single calendar factor in variables such as attractions being down, weather, or personal preferences into the equation. Someone that prefers attractions such as Carousel of Progress, the Tiki Room, and the Riverboat will find the crowds a lot more manageable than someone that wants to ride only the headliners.

 

[Oswin]

I don't find crowd calendars to be particularly useful in the long run, because everyone's expectation and interpretations of what the numbers mean is different which creates conflict in attempting to sort out actual meaning of the number scale. This has become particularly true this year, as more and more people are freaking out over the parks being way busier than they expected them to be based off crowd calendar numbers. When we go during "slow times", we still find ourselves facing surprisingly heavy crowds and longer waits than times like July 4th week where it's crowded but park hours, cast member assistance, and transportation are always ramped up and more efficient so we are actually able to get more done each day. We generally pay more attention to the best/worst park recommendation at easywdw rather than the crowd calendar numbers and that's always served us well for planning.

 

[epcotty]

What happened to easywdw for December? I just checked and it removed everything after the 18th

 

[mcraige]

What happened to easywdw for December? I just checked and it removed everything after the 18th

"For the rest of the month, see the current schedule here and change the date in the URL or by clicking the arrow or the calendar icon: https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/calendars/2015-12-19/"

EDIT: Tho now that I read the link, it doesn't really answer your question. Sorry.

 

[loves to dive]

I have never used them, I'm just wild and crazy and if it looks crowded, it must be crowded. Park Hoppers are your friend in these circumstances, too crowded for you? Hop to another park.

 

[MissBelle]

Thanks for the tips everyone