My personal situation reasonably approximates the scenario that I described in the original posting. I'm trying to decide what to do.
I won't invest in real estate (other than my primary residence) because it is too illiquid and more work than I want. I also don't see any large bargains around here. Our home prices have not fallen significantly, nor have they ever risen very quickly.
My current home loan is a 4.5% 5/1 ARM that will start floating in the spring of 2010. I'm debating whether I should pay it off or whether I should refinance it. If I refinance, I'm debating whether I should refinance the same amount (about 1/4 the home value), more, or less.
I looked at saving the money in safe investments, but the numbers don't work well. They would be useful for extending my emergency fund, but I'm already pretty comfortable with that. The problem with safe investments is that they pay so very little today. I'd rather just put the money into the house. It's true that I'd lose the interest deduction, but I would also avoid paying income tax on the interest income.
The real debate raging in my head is whether I should invest the money in the house (essentially earning a 5% return compared with borrowing) or whether I should invest the money. As low as the market is, I'm worried that I'm missing some great investing opportunities if I put the money in the house. Senior debts for very healthy corporations are yielding really, really well right now. Much better than 5%.
On the other hand, having the house paid for would be enormously satisfying from an emotional perspective. It is true that with about $800/month in taxes and HOA fees, I wouldn't be able to live without any fear of ever losing my house. Still, it's pretty comforting to know that it's paid for.
As for the college savings option that was mentioned, I'm already contributing to a 529 plan for each of my children and I adjust my contributions annually to make sure that I'll have enough money to send them to a top rated in-state public university (hopefully Texas A&M and not UT, but you never know with kids). I'm using a college savings plan and not a pre-paid tuition plan because I didn't think that the loss in flexibility (if the kids go to a private school or out-of-state school) was worth the benefits of pre-paid tuition.
In the end, I'll probably stick to my fairly conservative plan of paying down the house and maintaining an age adjusted balanced portfolio of US stock index funds, international stock index funds, bonds, and savings.
Thanks for your suggestions and comments. I have to admit that the small number of people advocating stocks and bonds has me really wondering if we are near a market bottom.