barkley,
I hear you on the points issue with DVC, which is why I will not be using points for the cruise. SInce I am looking at 2006 for Thanksgiving, I will be first in line to buy my air tickets when they become available (about 330 days befor we go). I know it is a lot of money to give up so early, but I found it the best way to keep costs down. For instance, there is 13 of us going to WDW this December for 8 nights, coming home on 12/23. We booked our air a few weeks after the flights were available and still had to switch airlines to get the best fares (holidays book up early). As long as we have the reservation, it makes the most sense for us to book the flight ASAP. Then I just have to save for spending $$$. I checked the DVC caskbill program I have, and found that in 2007, the first week of April (our spring break) falls smack dab in the middle of the peak season. After I ran some numbers, if I rented out my available DVC points and paid cash for the cruise, we could switch to a 7 night cruise and skip WDW all together. This option saves us a couple of thousand versus the 3 day cruise, 5 nights DVC.
I guess there are too many options here (nice problem to have), but I am just concerned about the parks being so crowded we will not have fun. It sounds like the weather will be good whichever cruise we choose, so that is the most important part!!! We just have to make a decision. Here is one more question though - is the hurricane season over by Thanksgiving???