what percentage sells their ownership?

[alisonslp]

Looking at all the posts for resales, I was curious if anyone knew or has a a good estimation of how many owners eventually sell.

 

[POTCfan]

I think that is hard to tell. The contracts for the very first DVC sold have still not expired, so there is no telling what percentage will eventually sell prior to it expiring. I imagine there are two main groups of DVC owners who sell: those that find out fairly soon that DVC is not for them and that buying was a mistake and those that no longer use DVC as they originally bought it for (maybe kids have grown up and moved off so the need for a 2 bedroom every summer is no longer there). While someone may figure out a way to find out the percentage of the first group, the second group may not have happened yet.

 

[ScubaCat]

There's also life-changing situations, such as a death in the family, that trigger them as well. It's hard to say for sure.

One thing, though -- it's really not very many resales compared to just direct sales of polynesian going on right now. In fact, it's a surprisingly small number of resale contracts available given the number of owners. Just this past week alone, DVD sold over 40,000 PVB points.

 

[disneynutz]

I think it takes owners a few years to burn out. In the beginning you can't seem to get enough Disney, then after visiting every park, ride and attraction several times and staying in all or the resorts, you might spend more time at the resort. Costs keep going up, dues increase each year, DVC rules and policies change, vacation likes change.

Bill

 

[Minniesgal]

Also a lot of people might sell some to downsize or realign their resort holdings. We sold 40 AKV and bought 40 GFV as we needed more GFV for the number of nights we want.

Also we bought originally to stay in 2 bedrooms, we have gone from a family of 5 travelling to only 3 travelling so now we book 1 bedrooms and may decide we have too many points. Or we may just go for longer.

 

[Dean]

Looking at all the posts for resales, I was curious if anyone knew or has a a good estimation of how many owners eventually sell.

It's difficult to know and people sell for many reasons. Other than curiosity and a general wakeup call, I don't see it as a helpful statistic. You may want to talk to corporate with DVC is you truly want to know, I'm sure they have easy access to the information. I'm betting it's far less with resale buyers than retail though.

 

[DVCcurious]

I would say a majority sell their contract prior to expiration. Why do I think that? Because the contracts have 50 years of life when they are sold and everybody's life style changes over a 50 year time period.

Let's assume that most people buy their DVC when they are in their 30s and have kids under 5 (I have no "proof" of that but it makes the most sense to me). If they kept it for the full 50 years they'd be in their 80s with 55 year old kids!

Now, I get that you can keep your contract to take your grandkids but what do you do when your youngest is 16 and before your oldest has kids? Once kids hit the later High School years they have so many activities you may not have the time to go to Disney World. Also it's entirely probable many 16 year olds who've gone to WDW annually since they were 3 are burned out of WDW and just don't want to go anymore.

It seems to me that once a family hits the point where the kids don't want to do Disney World anymore and there's no grandkids on the horizon....well the thousands of dollars you can get by reselling your contract starts to look pretty good, and those hundreds in annual dues start to look pretty bad.

We bought two DVCs (Wilderness Lodge in 2012 and BLT in 2013). Our kids were born in 2009 and 2012. We will definitely be selling both of our contracts in 2028-2029 when our youngest hits late high school age. It makes no sense to keep them at that point. Besides, we can still go to WDW without being DVC members. So we sell our contracts and we just pay for a hotel room like a regular person. Besides without kids we won't need 1BR's anymore so the DVC really won't make sense.

 

[JimMIA]

100%. In the entire history of DVC, not one owner has held their contract to expiration!

 

[CarolMN]

.....(snip)...... Besides without kids we won't need 1BR's anymore so the DVC really won't make sense.

You might not NEED a 1 bedroom, but they sure are nice, LOL.

In 2028 or so, your contract will probably \be paid off (assuming you financed), but even if you didn't finance, you'll be staying in 1 bedrooms for just the dues - and that should give you a very good price per night. That willprobably be less than the cost of that hotel room you're thinking about. And just the two of you will visit the parks very differently from when you had children along. That's where we are right now, and I love it. We're sure not ready to sell, even though we are in our 60's.

 

[CarolynFH]

You might not NEED a 1 bedroom, but they sure are nice, LOL.

In 2028 or so, your contract will probably \be paid off (assuming you financed), but even if you didn't finance, you'll be staying in 1 bedrooms for just the dues - and that should give you a very good price per night. That willprobably be less than the cost of that hotel room you're thinking about. And just the two of you will visit the parks very differently from when you had children along. That's where we are right now, and I love it. We're sure not ready to sell, even though we are in our 60's.

I completely agree! We bought when our kids were 13 & 9 because we did NOT fit in a hotel room or studio anymore. Fortunately we bought enough points to stay in 2BRs because they never stopped wanting to come with us. Now they're out of the house and they still want to come! And when they can't, which is most of the time, we enjoy longer trips in 1 BRs. So don't assume you'll be done with Disney when the youngest starts HS.

 

[alisonslp]

Thanks for everyone's thoughts. I was just curious about the stats. And possibly what the future holds for resales and value.

As for what others have said about their own situation - We have 3 teens and they all still love going to disney. We don't go to the parks every time. A lot of time we just stay at the resort or venture to the orlando parks. I know there will be several years during college where we will probably go on our own, get us some AP's and rent out any extra points. We will likely move a little further south eventually to make the trips to FL easier and to be with extended family. And I am sure we will go to Hawaii. 2 plane tix are a lot less than 5! But I fully expect that the kids will eventually want to use the points for themselves, friends, and future family.

 

[Dean]

Thanks for everyone's thoughts. I was just curious about the stats. And possibly what the future holds for resales and value.

The big issues for future usage and value depend on a number of factors including how DVC treats resale buyers, any system changes that might make smaller contracts less desirable, the state of the parks and the economy. Plus there's one's individual circumstances.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

The turnover rate in DVC is an attractive quality. It shows that there is an active market and that the timeshares hold a good percentage of their value. Would anyone want to buy stocks if there were no stock market?

If you spot a timeshare with very little turnover, that could be an indication that the resale market is non-existent, and you will find owners willing to give away their timeshare for free to someone who will agree to pay the dues.

As for percentage who sell over the life of the contract, I would estimate it like this. For a typical consumer product or service, like say, your pest control service, or your cell phone service, there is a base level of attrition of about 4 to 5%. These are people who move, can't pay, leave for poor service, no longer meets their needs, etc. If a company in the service sector wants to grow, they first have to replace the 5% who left, and then grow from there. This is why growth through mergers is so attractive, because organic growth is really hard. You could argue that DVC is more sticky than cell phones, or less sticky, but the analogy holds.

If you apply 5% per year to DVC, then the population would turn over 2 and a half times over 50 years. Some contracts might hold on all 50 years, others might turn over many times. But on average, the population turns over 2 ½ times.

You could argue that in addition to normal 5% attrition, you also get generational attrition, where every 20 years, the owner generation no longer needs it and their children may or may not be willing to take it on. This would accelerate the above numbers, but I do not know by how much.

 

[keolalessary]

I know we plan to keep our DVC forever, but times change. I'm comforted to know that we will be able to sell our DVC interest later. The problem is, Disney keeps finding ways to make resale purchases less attractive, taking away incentives, perks, etc.

It will be interesting to see how far they will and can go before someone questions the legality of their decisions. They cannot stop us from reselling, but they can take away any and all perks.

 

[JimMIA]

The problem is, Disney keeps finding ways to make resale purchases less attractive, taking away incentives, perks, etc.

I'm a contrarian on this particular issue -- even in the most recent restriction taking away the AP discount.

I think resale restrictions are a positive for prospective purchasers because they focus your attention on the only thing that is really important in any timeshare -- the value to your family of the vacation lodging you are buying.

Hopefully a sensible buyer who knows the resale market exists will ask themselves: "The perks are cool, and some of them have real value currently -- but are they worth $40, $50, $80 per point?"

That's a valuation question that each person must answer in light of their own family's needs and wants, but if resale restrictions force people to consider at that question, it's all good in my book.

It will be interesting to see how far they will and can go before someone questions the legality of their decisions.

I don't think there is any serious legal question that they can do whatever they want with perks.

They cannot stop us from reselling, but they can take away any and all perks.

Right...from resale owners OR from direct owners -- equally easily, with one swipe of the Mouse's pen. Don't forget that.

 

[Sammie]

We won't sell. We bought just the right amount of points for what we want, one full week in a two bedroom. We don't burn out as that is the only Disney trip we make. We go and see other areas of the country for other vacations.

It depends on the family. We have been going since our child was 2 and still going and no burnout on the annual trip.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Looking at all the posts for resales, I was curious if anyone knew or has a a good estimation of how many owners eventually sell.

I believe the percentage of people that bought direct from Disney and are still owners is super high - like over 90%. It may seem lower if you focus on the resale market, but in reality the resale market is very small compared the number of owners that have no intention of selling.

 

[BillPA]

The last count I recall is about 350,000 owners. When I look at the resale listing, at any given time you might see 300-500 listed. So about 0.14%. I don't think the turn over rate is much to worry about.

 

[disneynutz]

I don't know how many contracts there are and contracts are different than memberships and memberships are different than members. Disney seems to quote different numbers at different times. A senior CM told we a year ago that half of the contracts are direct and half are now resales. I haven't found a bus driver who can confirm this.

Bill

 

[Deb & Bill]

We sold two of our five contracts. We still have 325 points.