What happens to the cruise industry in case of a major war?

[dad of 3 addicted to DCL]

Thanks for this - I take it you're a veteran? - If so, Thank You for your service.
I'm not thinking WWIII, there's no way it'll get to that point, I hope.
If it's the case of a conventional war with 2 major actors, Russia & Nato, a prolonged conflict, what happens to sea lanes? - I googled tor 5 minutes to investigate what happened during the Balkan conflict & couldn't find anything.
The example of the Lusitania is interesting but I doubt it'll get to that.
But Ukraine is close to the Med via the Aegean Sea - in case of a long war, wouldn't some supply/troop ships transit thru those lanes? - I'm not worried about cruising, I'm just curious - wouldn't the entire industry just shut down?

Yep, retired Naval Officer. The thing with the Ukraine could go sideways very fast and easily. Russian has shown no compunction about the use of military force in acquiring strategic assets like the warm water port they took in 'invading' the Crimea. Compared to the rest of Russia, Ukraine out produces foodstuffs by a significant margin. Think of the midwest of the US (Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and so on).

Worst case is if this becomes a hot war against NATO. Then the Atlantic becomes a battleground as the Russians and their allies try to close the access of Europe by American heavy equipment. That's when things get dicey. And yes, the entire Cruise industry would most likely shut down outside of the Bahamas/Caribbean.

I don't think it will go that way. Russia would lose far too much should they start lobbing ordnance into the Ukraine. I do see them trying to intimidate NATO into blinking, though...

 

[DCLMP]

Yep, retired Naval Officer. The thing with the Ukraine could go sideways very fast and easily. Russian has shown no compunction about the use of military force in acquiring strategic assets like the warm water port they took in 'invading' the Crimea. Compared to the rest of Russia, Ukraine out produces foodstuffs by a significant margin. Think of the midwest of the US (Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and so on).

Worst case is if this becomes a hot war against NATO. Then the Atlantic becomes a battleground as the Russians and their allies try to close the access of Europe by American heavy equipment. That's when things get dicey. And yes, the entire Cruise industry would most likely shut down outside of the Bahamas/Caribbean.

I don't think it will go that way. Russia would lose far too much should they start lobbing ordnance into the Ukraine. I do see them trying to intimidate NATO into blinking, though...

Where does China and Iran fit into all this?

 

[dad of 3 addicted to DCL]

Where ever they choose to fit .

Seriously, this seems to be a Russian solo adventure as China & Iran really don't get anything out of this. If I was Iran, I'd be nervous as Russia is consolidating their south-western borders nearly back to the USSR days.

China has been quiet, which is good. It appears from open source information that they don't have a dog in this fight either.

Hopefully, this becomes a Mexican standoff and Russia capitulates their move. However, hope is not a valid battle plan...

 

[DLgal]

Where does China and Iran fit into all this?

China doesn't fit into the Russia situation at all.

The situation with China is its own ticking time bomb...

 

[DCLMP]

China doesn't fit into the Russia situation at all.

The situation with China is its own ticking time bomb...

The world is a complicated isn’t it.

 

[DLgal]

The world is a complicated isn’t it.

Scary, is more like it. The China situation keeps my husband awake at night. He is a military officer and he cannot wait to retire next year so he doesn't have to deal with whatever is coming down the pipeline in Asia.

 

[a1tinkfans]

Major war=protracted war btw 2+ large(r) countries.
Recent e:g - Iran/Iraq, Falklands, Balkan war.
I know cruises in the Caribbean won't cancel even if Russia invaded tomorrow
But I'm talking Med cruises - I think a couple of days of artillery exchanges btw Rusia-NATO, the Med shuts down.
WWIII is out of the question, imo. I'd like to think Putin & 46 are rational actors.

 

[hrhdhd]

Thank you for this - And yes, that's what I was thinking.

Celebrity just canceled 29 sailings in the MED and moved them to the Caribbean.
No mention of a particular conflict or the C-word but I think they're reading the news in Ukraine and they're being proactive. - That's smart on their part.

Won't post the link as it's against Disboards policy - google Celebrity Cruises Mediterranean on the news section.

Nah. People on those cruises were offered the chance to move to any of a number of other Celebrity ships still in the Med this summer.

 

[Kimly]

We have Russia under constant surveillance and in turn Russia likes to keep their subs about 50.5 miles off our coasts. Though, like always russia has a bad case of ‘the left hand not knowing what the right is doing.’

In regards to the original question, there has been nearly 300 conflicts since the end of WW2, and as long as the conflict isn’t near any of the ports cruising would continue as normal.

 

[DCLMP]

We have Russia under constant surveillance and in turn Russia likes to keep their subs about 50.5 miles off our coasts. Though, like always russia has a bad case of ‘the left hand not knowing what the right is doing.’

In regards to the original question, there has been nearly 300 conflicts since the end of WW2, and as long as the conflict isn’t near any of the ports cruising would continue as normal.

I thought Disney pulled out of Greece during the Syria debacle. Some cruise lines or more risk-averse than others. I booked a cruise with three Isreal stops then canceled it after thinking about it for a while. I don't know if cruise lines will refund your money if you book for specific ports and then they pull out due to some conflict.

 

[DCLMP]

Scary, is more like it. The China situation keeps my husband awake at night. He is a military officer and he cannot wait to retire next year so he doesn't have to deal with whatever is coming down the pipeline in Asia.

A lot of things have kept me up at night over the last year or so, mostly worrying about my kid's future. There's been a lot going on and it seems to be accelerating. Thank goodness for the DL and WDW bubbles to escape too.

 

[DLgal]

A lot of things have kept me up at night over the last year or so, mostly worrying about my kid's future. There's been a lot going on and it seems to be accelerating. Thank goodness for the DL and WDW bubbles to escape too.

I told my husband that once he retires, we can just watch whatever future war unfold on TV like most other people. We have lost enough of him to the wars over the last 20 years. I'll be glad to have him sit the next one out.

 

[DLgal]

Yep, retired Naval Officer. The thing with the Ukraine could go sideways very fast and easily. Russian has shown no compunction about the use of military force in acquiring strategic assets like the warm water port they took in 'invading' the Crimea. Compared to the rest of Russia, Ukraine out produces foodstuffs by a significant margin. Think of the midwest of the US (Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and so on).

Worst case is if this becomes a hot war against NATO. Then the Atlantic becomes a battleground as the Russians and their allies try to close the access of Europe by American heavy equipment. That's when things get dicey. And yes, the entire Cruise industry would most likely shut down outside of the Bahamas/Caribbean.

I don't think it will go that way. Russia would lose far too much should they start lobbing ordnance into the Ukraine. I do see them trying to intimidate NATO into blinking, though...

NATO has no responsibility to Ukraine. They are not a NATO nation.

If Russia strikes, Ukraine is on their own. We have pledged support only as far as providing weapons to Ukraine, but the US and NATO at large will stand by and watch Russia do whatever they want in Ukraine. It's not our fight.

Now, if Russia attacks a NATO country, that's a different story.

 

[tvguy]

Scary, is more like it. The China situation keeps my husband awake at night. He is a military officer and he cannot wait to retire next year so he doesn't have to deal with whatever is coming down the pipeline in Asia.

Well, if it is bad enough he could get recalled. My FIL and my wife's step father were sweating that in 1991 with the first Persian Gulf War when they started talking about recalling retirees to active duty. They both had been retired over 15 years and were 60 years old but the talks was they would put the reactivated retirees in desk jobs state side and move the younger folks in those jobs to the front lines.

 

[DLgal]

Well, if it is bad enough he could get recalled. My FIL and my wife's step father were sweating that in 1991 with the first Persian Gulf War when they started talking about recalling retirees to active duty. They both had been retired over 15 years and were 60 years old but the talks was they would put the reactivated retirees in desk jobs state side and move the younger folks in those jobs to the front lines.

Well, sure, the IRR recall is always a possibility. If we get to that point now, we are all in deep doo doo.

Regardless, he is not physically fit for deployment at this point due to injuries. Part of the reason he is retiring in the first place.

 

[tvguy]

Well, sure, the IRR recall is always a possibility. If we get to that point now, we are all in deep doo doo.

Regardless, he is not physically fit for deployment at this point due to injuries. Part of the reason he is retiring in the first place.

Regarding fitness, my wife's stepfather was saying that same thing but was told they could find a nice desk job or other task he could do. He wouldn't be deployed, but recalled to cover someone else who could then be deployed.

 

[DLgal]

Regarding fitness, my wife's stepfather was saying that same thing but was told they could find a nice desk job or other task he could do. He wouldn't be deployed, but recalled to cover someone else who could then be deployed.

I understand how it works.

 

[tvguy]

I understand how it works.

We did stories on it back then. Mind you we have/had 4 Air Force bases within 40 miles and an amazing number of retirees were shocked to discover they could be recalled without out regard to their age or disability.