What do you think will happen with BC, WL, and BWV

[BUDDYBEAR]

WILL BE 93 HOPE I CAN STILL GO

 

[Judique]

BWV was perfect for me. In 2042 I won't care what they do! I'll be past 85 by a bit.

My kids will have to do the math if an offer comes on the table as I made my daughter a co owner.

 

[tjkraz]

The most sensible thing (IMO) is to let the contracts run out and re-sell as new. But short term performance goals have a way of trumping the best long-term thinking. Over the next 30 years DVC is likely to have multiple presidents or VPs in charge. If overall sales hit an extended lull, offering extensions to BCV owners may suddenly re-emerge as an easy way to bolster sales.

Although some mistakes from the OKW offering could be corrected, my sense is that extensions would still yield disappointing results. I don't think Disney can find good equilibrium between a price buyers will embrace and one that yields the results they are seeking.

But that may not be enough to keep Disney from trying.

 

[Dean]

The most sensible thing (IMO) is to let the contracts run out and re-sell as new. But short term performance goals have a way of trumping the best long-term thinking. Over the next 30 years DVC is likely to have multiple presidents or VPs in charge. If overall sales hit an extended lull, offering extensions to BCV owners may suddenly re-emerge as an easy way to bolster sales.

Although some mistakes from the OKW offering could be corrected, my sense is that extensions would still yield disappointing results. I don't think Disney can find good equilibrium between a price buyers will embrace and one that yields the results they are seeking.

But that may not be enough to keep Disney from trying.

Tim, I think they can alter their marketing and they take can a different approach than trying to shove it down people's throat with the special Assessment. They could even tie the extension to other benefits such as an add on, etc. I think the one thing they've backed themselves into a corner on, that they can't change in the near future, is that of price. They over priced OKW at the $15 a point and it would create issues if they deviated much from that for an outright extension. That's not to say they couldn't, they'd certainly have the choice, but I feel the backlash would be too great.

 

[Belle & Ariel]

In 30 years many who now own DVC will have raised their families and moved on to to other vacation habits--a family condo at the beach, cruising, etc.
Our kids have been to Disney so many times I fear they are sick of it and will not take their kids. They do not want to inherit our points and we will be near 80 so as much as I love the mouse I think we will have moved on.
I think their best bet is to create new magic and sell to a new generation.

 

[dizfan]

I have to say i will be in my 70's at time of contract ending , with this being said even if they do offer something I really do not think at that point i might not want to take advantage and just let it run out .

WILL BE 93 HOPE I CAN STILL GO

BWV was perfect for me. In 2042 I won't care what they do! I'll be past 85 by a bit.

My kids will have to do the math if an offer comes on the table as I made my daughter a co owner.

The age factor makes extensions a very difficult sell for Disney (or any company in a similar situation).

Combined with the likelihood of more resale restrictions as DVC is running out of deluxe WDW properties. Based on rumors, Disney seems to be considering attempting sales at a moderate or a value resort. (Likely at a very preliminary stage). With more resale restrictions, it makes it less likely that people will extend on if they are concerned about age.

I think we'll see someone creative at Disney come up with a different approach than they have been using. Perhaps increase resale restrictions to drive resale prices down. Then use ROFR to acquire a fair amount of points. Then, introduce a new approach where all direct sales are given 50 years from the date of the addon/purchase.
If Disney can drive resale prices into the $20's or $30's and inflation returns, using ROFR and reselling the points becomes more attractive than building new properties.

 

[joeyrufmc]

Good insights, thanks for the info!

 

[Mississippian]

You and I won't be able to give our points away with just a few years left on them

Anyone wishing to give points with a few years left, please contact me!

 

[Dean]

Anyone wishing to give points with a few years left, please contact me!

Careful what you wish for. The closing costs and maint fees are likely to exceed the value by a significant amount in the last few years of the contract.