I would not give up the ship! Just keep following the discount pages here, and then be proactive. If FD is offered just be sure to jump right in and book. I got up at 2AM the night it was rumored to be released, and was chatting with our local Disney TA, who was also up. She had been led to believe it would not drop but also was taking no chances, and was up monitoring for it to open up. It did and I booked ASAP.
Be prepared to switch resorts if need be, and have a good idea where you are willing to go. I had watched
youtube videos with the family so we had an idea what woudl work for us, as I had heard from a CM the Beach Club likely would not be included. It was not but OKW was and it also worked for us and was in our price point.