What analysis would you like to see?

[Galactic Reversal]

I'm making a list of articles I'd like to write around DVC financial analysis and data/trend analysis. I think there are many people out there that wouldn't be too interested in delving into this level of analysis themselves, but wouldn't mind reading about it from someone else.

I wanted to throw it out to the group to see if anyone has anything they'd like me to research/analyze/evaluate? I think the more obscure and difficult to quantify the better. Here's what I was thinking:

• Is it better to buy a loaded or stripped contract? When does it make sense for either?
• Which resorts have the best point charts based on room size/occupancy?
• Which is better…older resort with more point chart value or newer resort with longer time to expiration? How much does it matter?
• Which contracts are best for sleep-around points (SAPs)?
• When is the best time of year to buy DVC resale?
• How do the DISboards rofr thread prices compare to OC reported deeds prices?
• Hypothetical DVC vs alternatives analysis similar to what I posted here: (https://www.disboards.com/threads/analyzing-best-value.3931095/post-65133511)

 

[DisneyCowgirl]

• I'm interested in best value for SAPs. Along with explanation of how you calculated.
• An organized discussion of what's the best use year given various fact patterns (I haven't yet had it matter other than having all contracts in the same one, and I always wonder when people start asking.)
• Break-even assuming annual trip compared to staying at various level resorts. When we bought, we thought it really wouldn't be worth it if you were happy staying in one moderate room. Wonder if that's still a reasonable assumption.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I'm making a list of articles I'd like to write around DVC financial analysis and data/trend analysis. I think there are many people out there that wouldn't be too interested in delving into this level of analysis themselves, but wouldn't mind reading about it from someone else.

I wanted to throw it out to the group to see if anyone has anything they'd like me to research/analyze/evaluate? I think the more obscure and difficult to quantify the better. Here's what I was thinking:

• Is it better to buy a loaded or stripped contract? When does it make sense for either?
• Which resorts have the best point charts based on room size/occupancy?
• Which is better…older resort with more point chart value or newer resort with longer time to expiration? How much does it matter?
• Which contracts are best for sleep-around points (SAPs)?
• When is the best time of year to buy DVC resale?
• How do the DISboards rofr thread prices compare to OC reported deeds prices?
• Hypothetical DVC vs alternatives analysis similar to what I posted here: (https://www.disboards.com/threads/analyzing-best-value.3931095/post-65133511)

This one would be something I'd love to see.

 

[OKW Lover]

I'm making a list of articles I'd like to write around DVC financial analysis and data/trend analysis. I think there are many people out there that wouldn't be too interested in delving into this level of analysis themselves, but wouldn't mind reading about it from someone else.

I wanted to throw it out to the group to see if anyone has anything they'd like me to research/analyze/evaluate? I think the more obscure and difficult to quantify the better. Here's what I was thinking:

• Is it better to buy a loaded or stripped contract? When does it make sense for either?
• Which resorts have the best point charts based on room size/occupancy?
• Which is better…older resort with more point chart value or newer resort with longer time to expiration? How much does it matter?
• Which contracts are best for sleep-around points (SAPs)?
• When is the best time of year to buy DVC resale?
• How do the DISboards rofr thread prices compare to OC reported deeds prices?
• Hypothetical DVC vs alternatives analysis similar to what I posted here: (https://www.disboards.com/threads/analyzing-best-value.3931095/post-65133511)

I'd like to see an analysis of the break even point between a cheap resale but with high MF (say Vero) with a higher price, but lower MF. How long would you have to hold the contract to break even with the more expensive option.

 

[thelionqueen]

I see a lot of folks debating the value of 2042 contracts vs longer ones. I’d love to see a cost per point for the duration of a contract based on current cost and expiration. For example, a shorter contract with higher dues (VB/HH) vs a longer contract with dues paid for much longer.

 

[MyDogTink]

I would be interested in buying a loaded vs stripped contract and if resale prices rise after a refurbishment.

 

[CarolynFH]

I see a lot of folks debating the value of 2042 contracts vs longer ones. I’d love to see a cost per point for the duration of a contract based on current cost and expiration. For example, a shorter contract with higher dues (VB/HH) vs a longer contract with dues paid for much longer.

That could be interesting especially with added analysis based on desired use for the points. For instance, if the buyer wants a 2BR for Thanksgiving week every year what is the difference in cost, given the need for more points for the later resorts vs. the 2042 resorts.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Thanks everyone! Great feedback, keep them coming! I'm not sure what timing of these will be as some are much more involved than others, but going to try to do them all eventually.

 

[JackosinDIS]

I would be interested to see some analysis on whether it makes sense to buy a second contract purely to rent out points to cover dues.

 

[JackosinDIS]

@Galactic Reversal, out of interest, what do you do for a living, and how did you get so in to DVC analysis. I find it all fascinating by the way!

 

[Galactic Reversal]

@Galactic Reversal, out of interest, what do you do for a living, and how did you get so in to DVC analysis. I find it all fascinating by the way!

Lol I've been wondering when someone was going to ask this. I'm an actuary! So a bit of a unique combo of finance, data analysis, and programming background. Honestly, I probably overanalyze everything in life and this just started as me wanting to share some helpful tools with this group. Didn't know it would keep going this long, but I've definitely followed the white rabbit down the hole at this point...

 

[JackosinDIS]

Lol I've been wondering when someone was going to ask this. I'm an actuary! So a bit of a unique combo of finance, data analysis, and programming background. Honestly, I probably overanalyze everything in life and this just started as me wanting to share some helpful tools with this group. Didn't know it would keep going this long, but I've definitely followed the white rabbit down the hole at this point...

Makes sense! So is this all in your spare time? I agree it can be a bit of a rabbit hole! But thank you for sharing… someone’s gotta do it!

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Makes sense! So is this all in your spare time? I agree it can be a bit of a rabbit hole! But thank you for sharing… someone’s gotta do it!

Yep I have a full-time job and two daughters 3y/o and 1y/o! I couldn't do it without a lot of automation and chatGPT helping me heavily with the code. I'm finally getting around to a manual review of the disboards data now from Q3 and it is taking forever lol

 

[DVC Doctor]

what DVC resort wont skyrocket in annual dues....

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I'm making a list of articles I'd like to write around DVC financial analysis and data/trend analysis. I think there are many people out there that wouldn't be too interested in delving into this level of analysis themselves, but wouldn't mind reading about it from someone else.

I wanted to throw it out to the group to see if anyone has anything they'd like me to research/analyze/evaluate? I think the more obscure and difficult to quantify the better. Here's what I was thinking:

• Is it better to buy a loaded or stripped contract? When does it make sense for either?
• Which resorts have the best point charts based on room size/occupancy?
• Which is better…older resort with more point chart value or newer resort with longer time to expiration? How much does it matter?
• Which contracts are best for sleep-around points (SAPs)?
• When is the best time of year to buy DVC resale?
• How do the DISboards rofr thread prices compare to OC reported deeds prices?
• Hypothetical DVC vs alternatives analysis similar to what I posted here: (https://www.disboards.com/threads/analyzing-best-value.3931095/post-65133511)

My top preference would be a comparison between ROFR prices and recoded deeds. Certain people have routinely suggested that ROFR prices are wild outliers and or lies, but so far it didn’t seem that way based on the deeds @tom1944 has been reviewing at a few of the more popular properties….but I am biased because I am probably done buying points for a while…I think…well, let’s see how much price drops from here.

Another great point of analysis (not sure if it can be scraped off an aggregator site?) is how quickly contracts sell based on broker/price/UY (there are probably 100 ways to slice the data, but really anything to help potential sellers figure out who to use if they want top dollar v who to use if they want to actually unload the contract quickly). I would also be interested to see the range (highest and lowest) $/pt for each broker for each resort. I’m curious if it is consistent that some brokers are always higher or if it varies by property.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Another great point of analysis (not sure if it can be scraped off an aggregator site?) is how quickly contracts sell based on broker/price/UY (there are probably 100 ways to slice the data, but really anything to help potential sellers figure out who to use if they want top dollar v who to use if they want to actually unload the contract quickly). I would also be interested to see the range (highest and lowest) $/pt for each broker for each resort. I’m curious if it is consistent that some brokers are always higher or if it varies by property.

I actually have a broker stats page that I made a little while ago ready to go live. I just hadn't put it up yet because lack of history made it not very interesting. There's not as much differentiation between the brokers as you may think for avg list price and time to sale. There are certainly some brokers with lower/higher prices at the extremes though.

Also, it irks me a bit to produces sales stats, but then not definitively be able to say a listing was sold. It's just based on a prior listing being taken down and that could occur for a number of reasons. Some brokers will change a listing to pending before removing it which is a better indication of a sale, but still not 100%. Anyway, I'll just have to put some caveats on there.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

My top preference would be a comparison between ROFR prices and recoded deeds. Certain people have routinely suggested that ROFR prices are wild outliers and or lies, but so far it didn’t seem that way based on the deeds @tom1944 has been reviewing at a few of the more popular properties….but I am biased because I am probably done buying points for a while…I think…well, let’s see how much price drops from here.

I want to add the OC data to my site as I think it would be a huge improvement to have that alongside the DISboards data. I did spend some time looking at what it would take and experimented with pulling that data. It's quite onerous to download the pdfs and review them programatically. There are some ethical concerns as well given they're clearly trying very hard to avoid bots. There is a recaptcha every 10th download. Then, the cost of the computer time required to run OCR on each pdf to convert it to text and extract the relevant information could add up quick. All that to say, I think I will have it at some point, but since it's probably going to be a somewhat manual process it may not be soon.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I want to add the OC data to my site as I think it would be a huge improvement to have that alongside the DISboards data. I did spend some time looking at what it would take and experimented with pulling that data. It's quite onerous to download the pdfs and review them programatically. There are some ethical concerns as well given they're clearly trying very hard to avoid bots. There is a recaptcha every 10th download. Then, the cost of the computer time required to run OCR on each pdf to convert it to text and extract the relevant information could add up quick. All that to say, I think I will have it at some point, but since it's probably going to be a somewhat manual process it may not be soon.

I read a Bloomberg (I think?) headline that some Chinese company just figured out how to defeat captchas, just saying…

Not sure if Tom is still working on his project but you might be able to work with him.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

I read a Bloomberg (I think?) headline that some Chinese company just figured out how to defeat captchas, just saying…

Yeah I've heard of methods of defeating them, but I try to be ethical about all this. We could probably crowdsource the review with a little organization if enough people were interested.

 

[crisi]

I'd like to know how regular Disney vacations with DVC while your kids are in the house impact your college savings. If you set aside the money into a college fund, how much student loan debt would your kids avoid? Likewise, retirement savings - if I bought DVC at X age, with park tickets and a reasonable dining allowance, how much less would I have in my retirement accounts.