Weekend pre-spring break crowds or weekdays during spring break?

[eschmeling]

Hi Everyone,
I was hoping for some input on the following question:
We are finally (last trip was March 2014) headed back to DL this March. My original plan was to go on a relatively low crowd weekend as predicted by touringplans and I've found one, with good hotel rates to match: March 2-4. It's before spring break season and before the expo west tradeshow. Predicted crowd levels are a 4 (Fri), 7 (Sat), 5 (Sun) for our 3 days there. I was just about to book a hotel room when I decided to check last year's crowds for that weekend. Lo and behold, it was 8/9/9 on those days, even though touringplans had predicted low crowds. Then I started finding forum posts about the recent unreliability of those crowd estimates.
I could just as well go during our university spring break, which is March 13-17, for a M/T/W/F visit (1 park per day) as opposed to the 3 day hopper in early March. And if in fact the crowds are the same either way, I would prefer that. Touringplans predicts 8s for that week. Hotel rates are a smidgen higher but still ok.
What do you all think? Should I trust those predictions? Is a weekend during the off season better than a weekday during spring break season? We are rope drop people - I know the afternoons/evenings will be crowded during either date, but I'd love to have relatively quiet mornings. I was even wondering if weekend visitors are more likely to sleep in than weekday visitors...
thanks for your advice!
elke

 

[MacMama0930]

On touringplans, I show a crowd history of 6 and 7 on the first weekend in March whereas I see what I would guess is spring break week being at 10s. Where did you see that 8/9?

 

[eschmeling]

crowd predictions for 3/3, 4, 5: 4, 7, 5
crowd predictions for 3/13, 14, 15, 16: 8,8,8,7

historical crowds last year at the same time:
3/4, 5, 6: actual: 8, 10, 7. Predicted: 3, 6, 7.
3/14, 15, 16, 17: 9, 9, 8, 9. Predicted: pretty much the same.

 

[MacMama0930]

Ok, ya, sorry I was looking at 2015!! Forgot it was 2016

 

[chickapin parterre]

as you observe, it is all about the mornings,if you like starting the day off in ROA, NOS and Adventureland. rope drop has now every other place in the park crowded in the morning. Regardless of the day or month you choose

 

[Angrose]

I would pick the dates that will work best for you. Personally I would rather have more days in the park, especially since you like mornings. Also, Pirates of the Caribbean will be closed until March 15, so if you don't want to miss that then you'll want to pick the later dates.

 

[beachdreamr1229]

"Spring Break" as a phrase is cringe-worthy for me. I often go during spring break because I'm a teacher with kids and it's one of the only times we can all get away. But, it's probably my least favorite time. Even though the crowds are generally slightly better than the holidays, they seem more difficult to manage. I don't know why.

Do what works for you, but I think I would do the 3-day weekend. Early March is generally quite nice, though the weather is hit or miss.

 

[eschmeling]

thanks for the input so far! The family has spoken - and they all (really mostly dh, but he's usually the driver) feel strongly about going during the week that we are off because the trip down and back will be more relaxed and we'll have extra time in the parks. He also really likes Pirates, whereas I'm pretty lukewarm on that ride. Had also not anticipated that dd2 (9 years) still wants to meet the princesses...

 

[dshimel]

Going to pile on here. Spring Break sucks for crowds. Weekends before Spring Break, as everyone tries to get in one last visit before Spring Break crowds, now suck too.

Sites like TouringPlans can now effect crowd level in a reverse-prediction pattern. They predict low crowds, everyone goes expecting a light crowd, and poof, crazy packed, JUST because it was predicted to be slow. Rumor has been around for years that the best day to go is Super Bowl Sunday, so everyone plans their visit for that day, and poof, insanely crowded that day.

The OC register nailed it in their recent story on crowds. If there was a magical time when it isn't crowded, everyone would go, and it would no longer be not crowded. When is the best time to go? A school's in session, weekday 20 years ago.

If your time machine is not working and you're forced to go now instead of 20 years ago, then just accept it will be crowded.

Be at rope drop.
Hit the most popular rides first, or FastPass them.
Less popular stuff, shows mid-day afternoon.
Lines lighten up a little around fireworks and parade times, and near close.

My expectations:
3-4 rides per hour in the first couple hours. 1 ride per hour mid-day. 1.5 rides per hour after dinner.

+++

This last Saturday was a busy day. I did 13 attractions in the first 4 hours, then left the park for 6 hours to go to my 97-year-old grandma's birthday lunch (which turned out to be in the hospital... probably her last birthday). I returned to the parks at 6pm, and stayed until midnight. In those 6 hours did 9 attractions.

Here was my experience:

8am rope drop
HyperSpace Mt (10 min wait + got FPs 8:45-9:45)
Matterhorn (10 min)
Matterhorn other side (10 min)

8:50
Indy (10 min + got FPs at 8:50, return time 9:45-10:45)
Jingle Cruise (walkon)
BTMRR (10 min)

9:45
Got Star Tours FPs (at 9:45 11:00-12:00-ish return) and tried to use Space FPs(Would have been 5 minutes after end of window, but it was down)
Indy with FP
Toad (5 min)
Dumbo (10 min)
Snow (walkon)
Pinoc (walkon)

11-ish
Tried to get mansion FPs but it had just gone down.
Pirates O Carib Bean (15 min wait)
Star Tours with FP

(noon, and heading to the gate to grandma's 1PM bday lunch).

6PM
HyperSpace Mt (with FP from the morning)
Matterhorn (30)
Star Tours (45)
Pan (45)
Alice (15. Posted 40, but 9PM Paint the Night going past, so it seems a lot of people jumped out of line to watch parade).
Mansion (40)
Splash (walk on)
11PM Paint the Night
Great Moments with Mr Lincoln
(Disneyland has now ended its normal operations.... shop or get out.)

 

[eschmeling]

Well, we're booked now (took me way too long, but finally found a great Sheraton price again - we really liked that hotel last time in 2014). We'll be in the parks Tu-Fri (3/14-3/17), and funnily enough, mostly DCA is predicted super busy (9), and DL a moderate 6. Whatever, we are planning for big crowds. Maybe people stay away due to the predictions. DD interviewed everyone about their "musts", "nice if possible", and "meh" rides. She lost steam when I suggested she now merge the lists to create a master list
I am trying to figure out the best way to secure night time (but not super late) FP for RSR. We'll probably ride it at rope drop on our 2 DCA mornings (Tue & Thu, timed to avoid early entry), but we've never ridden it at night. Kids are old enough for single rider, but 9 year old not fond of the idea.
Great to hear all the input, thanks!

 

[SMD]

I think it was TP that also recently adjusted their crowd levels. So what used to be a 9 is now lower. The 8/9/9 from last year may be 7 or lower now.

 

[dshimel]

I think it was TP that also recently adjusted their crowd levels. So what used to be a 9 is now lower. The 8/9/9 from last year may be 7 or lower now.

Yeah, that is what I heard. They no longer had any 1,2,3 days, and few 4 and 5, so had to redo the scale. What is now a 1 or 2, 10 years ago would have been called a 4 or 5.

 

[dshimel]

I am trying to figure out the best way to secure night time (but not super late) FP for RSR.

If you have a smart phone (and who doesn't?), the Disneyland app is awesome. Shows you wait times and return time of FPs currently being given out. On a week day in March, I'd expect after-dark FPs to be 1.5 hours or so after park opening, but you can use the mobile app to watch.

 

[eschmeling]

.....iphone 3GS...very sturdy - but I don't think any current/new apps still support my operating system (I could be wrong though). Do you mean the official DL app or a 3rd party app?

 

[prestoncaldwell]

crowd predictions for 3/3, 4, 5: 4, 7, 5
crowd predictions for 3/13, 14, 15, 16: 8,8,8,7

historical crowds last year at the same time:
3/4, 5, 6: actual: 8, 10, 7. Predicted: 3, 6, 7.
3/14, 15, 16, 17: 9, 9, 8, 9. Predicted: pretty much the same.

Bear in mind that Easter was 2 or 3 weeks earlier last year! Still, I think it will be a little higher than prediction.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

.....iphone 3GS...very sturdy - but I don't think any current/new apps still support my operating system (I could be wrong though). Do you mean the official DL app or a 3rd party app?

The official DL app will show you current FP return times when you click on an attraction. It's definitely the easiest way to get FP for a specific time.

 

[Angrose]

.....iphone 3GS...very sturdy - but I don't think any current/new apps still support my operating system (I could be wrong though). Do you mean the official DL app or a 3rd party app?

If for some reason you're not able to download the app, you can also call "Ask Otto" at (714) 520-7090 and say the name of the attraction for wait times and the FP times currently being distributed. It's the same info on the app.