Weather Advisories

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 261758
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS REPORTED
AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN KEY WEST FLORIDA...A GUST TO 66 MPH
WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER
EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MARATHON IN THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[snelsonbrown]

I know right now, our hometown of Key West, Florida is being beaten as it hasn't been in many many years of hurricanes - all the streets are flooded, no power and the worse of it, there was NO WARNING that Katrina was even thinking of going down the keys - haven't been able to reach our family down there as of yet but with the Grace of God, that they be safe - there wasn't even time to evacuate the tourist so that must be quite a scene down there.
thanks for the updates.
Blessings always
Shirley and Norm

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 262354 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...CORRECTED TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION...

...KATRINA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY LARGO SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST AND
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR... HURRICANE
TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 83.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT42 KNHC 262059
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

MOST RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 965 MB...BUT THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 94 KT AT 700 MB...WHICH
IS ABOUT AN 85-KT SURFACE WIND. A 1701Z DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT REPORTED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE SUPPORTS ABOUT 95-KT SURFACE WINDS. THE EYEWALL IN
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS REMAINED OPEN...PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND THIS MAY PARTLY EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE OBSERVED WINDS AND WHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TYPICALLY
SUPPORTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...OR 255 DEGRESS...AT 07
KT. KATRINA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE
WEST SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. BOTH THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
...WHICH ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...AND MOST OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THAT SCENARIO. AFTER 24 HOURS...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ERODE THE RIDGE...WHICH ALLOWS KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWARD BY 72
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD
AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BEING SHIFTED ABOUT 150 NMI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...
PROJECTED LANDFALL IS STILL ABOUT 72 HOURS AWAY...SO FURTHER
MODIFICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36
HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD
ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL
OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH
BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE
ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 24.8N 82.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 24.9N 83.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 25.2N 85.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 25.8N 86.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 26.9N 87.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 88.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 86.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/1800Z 40.5N 79.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 270847
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND
FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT42 KNHC 270900
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

THE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
GOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT
945 MB. WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET
EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.

WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST... AND THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT
FIXES... INDICATE THAT KATRINA IS WOBBLING ABOUT A HEADING JUST
SOUTH OF DUE WEST... SO THE LONG-ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE WEST MIGHT
BE STARTING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN LATER TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA EASES WESTWARD AND A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAD
SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST CYCLES. THE
LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS... SO
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTWARD SHIFTING OF THE MODELS IS ENDING.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK
AND A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE
DECREASING SPREAD IN THE MODELS... THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK IS INCREASING.

KATRINA IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMINGLY
CANNOT GET MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING... PRIMARILY DUE
TO A VERY LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. NOT SURPRISINGLY... UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. THIS WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
TEXAS FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST... BUT IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE TOO LATE TO
PREVENT KATRINA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT
LANDFALL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO 123 KT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW PEAKS AT 120 KT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE 12-FOOT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON DATA FROM NOAA
BUOY 42003 AND ON SHIP DATA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 24.4N 84.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 24.5N 85.4W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 25.0N 87.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 88.7W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 27.4N 89.9W 120 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 31.5N 90.0W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/0600Z 40.0N 82.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 271146
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 940 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 271451
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS DISCONTINUED FROM KEY WEST EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405
MILES... 655 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT THE DRY TORTUGAS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH A GUST TO 55 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT42 KNHC 271450
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATRINA DROPPED TO 940 MB AT 0932Z.
SINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS STARTED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE...WITH A FILLING OF THE EYE AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT BASED
MAINLY ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 115 KT FROM SAB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT SO FAR ARE 106 KT...WHICH
ARE LOWER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR A 940 MB HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES
ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD...
PARTICULARLY FROM THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH CALL FOR
LANDFALL NEAR MORGAN CITY AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
RESPECTIVELY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL
BETWEEN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR
AFFECTS THE STORM. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND
THE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME
POINT BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS
ALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 24.5N 85.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 24.6N 86.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 25.3N 87.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 26.7N 89.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 125 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 89.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1200Z 37.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 41.5N 80.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

[jennat]

Thanks for keeping us up to date!

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 271738
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE PAST FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 230
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[beachbumfamily]

Human Cookie sailing on the eastern next week anything happening out there all i'm getting is Katrina this Katrina that and thanks for the updates

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 272032
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 240
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO
58 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IS
945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

WTNT42 KNHC 272033
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE
OUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS
950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT
HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE
OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS
AREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/6. KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED
AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS
SHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER. THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR.

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A BIT.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
AND EXPANDED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS
OF THE WATCH AREA.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 24.6N 85.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 24.9N 86.8W 105 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 25.8N 88.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 89.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 29.6N 90.0W 125 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 31/1800Z 38.5N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 43.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

[HumanCookie]

There are 2 other waves that they are keeping an eye on (invest). And as far as I'm concern, nothing is happenning with it.

Keep this site handy, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 272350
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND
25-FOOT WAVES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

DATA FROM BUOYS INDICATE THAT 12-FOOT WAVES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 280245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA THREATENS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT42 KNHC 280249
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING
FROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING
THE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH
OF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING
IS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING
KATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA
UP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO
FORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE
THEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT
FORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY
CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 25.0N 86.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 25.4N 87.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 89.8W 85 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0000Z 41.0N 80.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0000Z 45.5N 71.4W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 280850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HURRICANE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT42 KNHC 280910
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND GROW LARGER. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MOST RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 935 MB... AND THE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED SIGNIFICANTLY...
WITH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 137 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THIS OBSERVATION ALONG WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD
CONTINUES TO EXPAND. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE
AGAIN BEEN EXPANDED. ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE RADII BEFORE LANDFALL...THIS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND SIZE
FORECASTS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED BOTH EAST
AND WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ANTICIPATES THAT KATRINA COULD APPROACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DOES FORECAST 140 KT AT
24 HOURS... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT INTERNAL STRUCTURAL
CHANGES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY... SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 135 KT. WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE
LANDFALL INTENSITY CANNOT BE NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME... KATRINA WILL
BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

KATRINA IS MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... JUST A LITTLE
FASTER NOW WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/9. DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS HARDLY
MOVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH THE NEW FORECAST BASICALLY JUST
UPDATES. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS AT MOST 90 MILES... SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS RELATIVELY HIGH. HOWEVER...IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT
LANDFALL POINT CANNOT BE SPECIFIED AND THAT KATRINA IS A LARGE
HURRICANE THAT WILL AFFECT A LARGE AREA... BOTH AT THE COAST AND
WELL INLAND. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
THROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREAS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 25.4N 87.4W 125 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W 135 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT62 KNHC 280950
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
450 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

...AT ABOUT 420 AM CDT... 0920Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH. KATRINA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

FORECASTER KNABB

 

[KYCruiseCrazy]

its a cat 5 now. i hope anyone in the path can leave and if you cant let GOD watch over you. this will be a very bad hurricane

 

[HumanCookie]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 908 MB...26.81 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.7 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 908 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

 

[HumanCookie]

GOD SPEED for those folks in her path.

WTNT42 KNHC 281204
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF
KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS.
OBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT
LANDFALL. WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.

NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.


FORECASTER PASCH/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1200Z 25.7N 87.7W 140 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W 140 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W 140 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W 135 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/0600Z 37.5N 86.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/0600Z 42.0N 79.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/0600Z 47.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 282041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST
PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
902 MB...26.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N... 89.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 902 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT42 KNHC 282047
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

KATRINA IS MAINTAINING A CLASSIC PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE AT 1755Z AND 1923Z WAS 902
MB...WHICH IS THE FOURTH LOWEST ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988...THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF
1935...AND HURRICANE ALLEN OF 1980. HAVING SAID THAT...DATA FROM
THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TO 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND RATIO
IS NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS WE TYPICALLY USE...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 145 KT. HURRICANES DO NOT
MAINTAIN SUCH GREAT INTENSITY FOR VERY LONG. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO
OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE MECHANISMS...SUCH AS INCREASED VERTICAL
SHEAR...TO WEAKEN KATRINA. THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITH CATEGORY 4 OR 5 INTENSITY.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. INITIAL
MOTION IS ABOUT 315/11. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFDL
HURRICANE MODEL'S TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AS HAS THE
LATEST NOGAPS RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO BOTH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS... AND TO THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. AMONG OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS...ONLY THE
U.K. MET. OFFICE IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SMALL CHANGE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AT THE NOISE LEVEL. ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF A
HURRICANE AS LARGE AS THIS ONE. DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE
FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY
WHICH COUNTIES OR PARISHES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS.

ON THE BASIS OF AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND
DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EVEN MORE OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
AT LEAST 150 N MI INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. CONSULT INLAND
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 26.9N 89.0W 145 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 28.3N 89.8W 145 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 30.6N 89.9W 130 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 30/0600Z 33.4N 89.2W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 30/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1800Z 41.0N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 01/1800Z 48.0N 72.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1800Z...ABSORBED

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 282355
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS
OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE
NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
904 MB...26.69 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...27.2 N... 89.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN