Weather Advisories

[HumanCookie]

Tropical Storm KATRINA

WTNT32 KNHC 241445
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES...
375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT42 KNHC 241501
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON
925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75
PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE
DEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN
RESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES
ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL
THE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA
INDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
EAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS
AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD.

KATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD
IS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.7N 76.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 25.4N 77.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.9N 78.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 79.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.1N 80.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.3N 82.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 84.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 65 KT

 

[HumanCookie]

wtnt32 Knhc 241755
Tcpat2
Bulletin
Tropical Storm Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 4a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
2 Pm Edt Wed Aug 24 2005

...tropical Storm Katrina Strengthening Over The Central Bahamas...
...heavy Rainfall Threat For The Bahamas Tonight And Thursday...

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For
The Southeast Florida Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida
City. This Replaces The Tropical Storm Watch. A Hurricane Watch
Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch
Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Central And
Northwest Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical
Storm Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The
Next 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Middle And Upper
Florida Keys From West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To South
Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36
Hours.

A Watch Or Warning May Be Required For Lake Okeechobee Later Today.
A Hurricane Warning May Be Required For Portions Of The Northwest
Bahamas Later Today.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...reports From An Air Force Reserve Unit
Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate The Center Of Tropical Storm
Katrina Was Reforming Near Latitude 25.2 North... Longitude 77.0
West Or About 30 Miles... 50 Km... East-northeast Of Nassau And
About 200 Miles...320 Km...east-southeast Of The Southeast Coast
Of Florida.

Katrina Is Moving Toward The North-northwest Near 8 Mph
...13 Km/hr. A Turn Toward The Northwest Or West-northwest At A
Slightly Slower Forward Speed Is Expected To Occur Tonight Or Early
Thursday. This Motion Will Bring The Center Through The Central
Bahamas Today And The Northwest Bahamas Tonight And Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Estimated Near 45 Mph...75 Km/hr...with
Higher Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next
24 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles
...110 Km...mainly East Of The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Observed By Reconnaissance
Aircraft Was 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A
Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over The Central And Northwest
Bahamas...and South Florida... With Total Rainfall Accumulations Of
6 To 12 Inches And Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 To 20 Inches
Possible.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves... Can Be Expected
Near The Center In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas.

Repeating The 2 Pm Edt Position...25.2 N... 77.0 W. Movement
Toward...north-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 45 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center
At 5 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Stewart

 

[Debbie1967]

Thanks for the update,

Due to Tropical Storm Katrina’s possible threat to our area, ALL St. Lucie County Public Schools will be CLOSED Friday, August 26, 2005.

Last year our schools were closed for a month. We had to make up those days. They took some of our Xmas, spring, and summer breaks days. This school year our last school day is scheduled for May 26th and we set sail on the Magic May 27th.

Debbie

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 242034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY...AND FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...
INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 185
MILES... 300 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE CENTER THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.6 N... 77.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT42 KNHC 242100
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...
AND THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. BANDING
FEATURES HAVE INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED AND REMAINS QUITE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF RECON WIND...38 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS...AND PRESSURE DATA...1002 MB OR ROUGHLY 43 KT...AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE
INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE TO SOUTHWEST OF THE 1949Z
RECON POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER-SCALE
CIRCULATION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ZERO-ISODOP PATTERN NOTED
IN THE NOAA/NWS MIAMI DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE CENTER POSITION. I HAVE TRIED TO
BLEND THE POSITIONS FROM RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST
RECON POSITION CAN BE SEEN AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING OUT
FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THAT VORTEX MAY END UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IF
IT TURNS OUT THAT THE CENTER DOES END UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
...THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA TO KEEP BUILDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WHICH ULTIMATELY FORCES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN 36-48 HOURS...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE AND WHEN KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST. THE GFDN IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO
NEW ORLEANS...WHEREAS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST MODELS AND TAKE KATRINA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A
NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH
LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO
111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH
SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

OWING TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 25.6N 77.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 25.9N 77.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 26.1N 78.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 79.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 80.7W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.4N 83.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.0W 65 KT...INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 242338
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

AT 8 PM...0000 EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE...INCLUDING
ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...NORTH OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 270
KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[nacho1337]

posted on drisneycruise

Weather Update

As of 12:00 p.m. EST - August 24, 2005

The safety and security of our guests and crew members is always our top priority, and we monitor the weather very closely. The Disney Wonder® is currently traveling on its regularly scheduled itinerary and is at sea today with no impact from Tropical Storm Katrina. The Disney Wonder® will depart again on its regularly scheduled itinerary on Thursday, August 25. If necessary, our Captains are always prepared to alter the ships' courses or itinerary to navigate away from inclement weather.

Stephen

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 251146
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST OF FT. LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 50 MPH...AND FREEPORT ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT42 KNHC 250902
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.
HOWEVER...THE RADAR APPEARANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE
CENTER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND NO EVIDENCE OF THE EYE
STRUCTURE SEEN AROUND 00Z. RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT AN
INNER WIND CORE IS PRESENT...WHICH MAY BE THE SAME FEATURE SEEN IN
THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 45 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7. KATRINA REMAINS SOUTH OF A COMPLEX
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE HAS ONLY A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FLOW TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS A MORE
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES IS TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD OF
LANDFALLS IN FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS TO NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT KATARINA WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOP OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

KATRINA HAS BEEN BATTLING DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLE NORTHERLY
SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE
CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT. SOME
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL KATRINA
MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...WHICH WOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE COLD TOPS AND THE INNER WIND CORE SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR KATRINA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
KATRINA SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE RE-INTENSIFY UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 26.2N 78.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 26.2N 79.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 26.3N 80.4W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.4W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0600Z 26.5N 82.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.5N 84.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 251435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM... EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 33 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

WTNT42 KNHC 251504
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW ISOLATED DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 68
KT AT 9000-10000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THE
AVERAGE DOPPLER VELOCITIES OVER A 1-NMI STRETCH HAVE BEEN AROUND 55
KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 50-KT SURFACE WINDS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WITH SFMR CAPABILITY IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KATRINA...
AND A RECENT REPORT INDICATES THE PRESSURE IS NOW LOWER AT 990 MB.
HOWEVER... THIS PRESSURE DROP HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/5. 06Z AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 32N LATITUDE. THIS HAS
CREATED A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KATRINA
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN TO THE NORTH
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE UKMET IS THE EASTERNMOST AND FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS
KATRINA ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFDL IS THE
WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48
HOURS. THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS TRACK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SOME
DEGREE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFDL IS TAKING KATRINA TOO
FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS
GRADUALLY BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
KATRINA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
INTO THE INNER CORE AND HAS CAUSED THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE AND
MIAMI INDICATE NUMEROUS SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING IN
THE LARGE DRY SLOT TO THE NORTH...AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OVER THE VERY
WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...KATRINA COULD
STILL POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND
THEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.2N 79.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 26.2N 80.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 26.2N 81.0W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 26.3N 82.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 26.7N 83.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 28.1N 84.3W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 82.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 251642
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST
...OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 251858
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEARING THE FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...REPORTS FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST
...OR ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND KATRINA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTY FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT62 KNHC 251940
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES
THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...

SHORTLY BEFORE 330 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD THE
NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED HURRICANE-FORCE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM WFO MIAMI.

FORECASTER STEWART

ZCZC MIATCEAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 4 PM EDT...2000Z... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE
KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... AS
WELL NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST... OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA
RATON FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 252050
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE KATRINA BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF
MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTERWARDS AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT BOCA RATON. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND
NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 252252
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON
THE COAST BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 260055
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA RELENTLESSLY POUNDING SOUTH FLORIDA...CALM OF THE LARGE
EYE EXPERIENCED AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE KATRINA SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB... 29.06 INCHES. THE
MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE JUST MEASURED A
PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

ZCZC MIATCEAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS INLAND OVER THE EVERGLADES ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE CITY OF HOMESTEAD FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 260254
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF JUPITER HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF
HOMESTEAD.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES. EARLIER THIS EVENING A WIND GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECORDED
AT MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE/NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND 81 MPH AT THE TAMIAMI AIRPORT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY
NEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE
OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS...STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG AND LARGE
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. THIS
SOUTHWEST DIP HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
HIGH WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KATRINA ON A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 25.5N 80.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND

 

[captaincrash]

The NOAA....

...hurricane prediction center puts it in Virginia on tuesday. Here's the latest reasleased from NOAA about 29 minutes ago.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...5641.shtml?5day


So for the FUTURE here is a map from NOAA with what I think is their evaluation of regions with potential for Tropical cyclone developement. As indicated there is a region under watch for the next 36 hours. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...641.shtml?basin Look at the shaded region in the southern Atlantic under observation for the next 36 hours.

So far so good ... I think.

 

[HumanCookie]

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA CHURNING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH... AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD
AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
NORTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES
FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM EDT... FOLLOWED BY
THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD PATH TAKEN BY KATRINA OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...ITS CENTER SPENT ONLY ABOUT SEVEN HOURS OVER LAND...AND
MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE RELATIVELY MOIST EVERGLADES. AS A RESULT
OF THIS AND THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT... KATRINA DID
NOT WEAKEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AT ABOUT 0530Z... EMERGING OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI AND
KEY WEST STILL DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE... WITH STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH STILL
QUALIFIES AS SOMEWHAT OF AN EYEWALL. A SECONDARY BUT STRONG CURVED
BAND ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF THE CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE ENTIRE CHAIN OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND A LARGER OUTER BAND
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA TO WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS. WHILE THE LATEST
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES ONLY SUPPORT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE... THESE
VALUES ARE STEADILY CLIMBING... AND THE FIRST DVORAK ESTIMATES OVER
THE GULF ARE A UNANIMOUS T4.0/65 KT. THEREFORE... KATRINA IS
REASSIGNED HURRICANE STATUS WITH INTENSITY OF 65 KT.

RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KATRINA HAS STARTED TO MOVE NEARLY DUE
WESTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/4. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
AND MIGRATE WESTWARD... ALLOWING KATRINA TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING. THE NEW SUITE OF GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST... AS HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SEEMS EVEN MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH EMERGING
AGAIN OVER WATER. AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DOMINATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING KATRINA TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS....
BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECAST A
MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD
ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 25.3N 81.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 25.2N 82.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 25.4N 83.8W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 25.9N 84.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 26.6N 85.4W 85 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 28.5N 86.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/0600Z 39.0N 79.0W 25 KT...INLAND

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 261257
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FLOODING STILL A THREAT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH...
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

INFORMATION FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KATRINA LATER
THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A WIND GUST TO 50 MPH
WAS REPORTED AT MARATHON AND A GUST TO 46 MPH WAS REPORTED AT
THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...25.2 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT32 KNHC 261524
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1130 AM EDT...1530Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. ANOTHER RECENT REPORT FROM A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY
WEST HARBOR INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 86 MPH WERE STILL OCCURRING IN
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1130 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83
KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.

GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE
SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE
VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND