WDW vs. US/IoA Park attendance "unique patrons" conjecture

[bcrook]

In the discussion about park attendance and Universal's gains. Here is a reference document.

My question is how many unique customers show up to wdw a year versus US/IoA.

For example, 46,000,000 people walked through the gates at all four parks with 17 million arriving at MK.

But how many of those turnstile numbers are the same people? If everybody attended all four parks the the actual number of visitors would only be 12,000,000. But then we have repeat AP locals and most people visit MK more than once per trip. So the actual unique number could be less than 10,000,000 different guests.

Another way to look at it would be assuming nearly every unique customer visits MK at least once. So the top number would be 17,000,000. Then adjust for AP and multiple days at MK for most visitors, it would a logical conclusion that the unique number is under 10,000,000.

US/IoA had an attendance number of 13,500,000. I wonder how many of those customers visited both parks versus just going to IoA to see WWoHP. And how any go on repeat days?

The actual number of unique guests at each theme park location may be closer than some think. And with the new additions at Universal, that number could get very close.

Any thoughts to add to this logic?

 

[Kronk N Tink]

I think the only important figure would end up being guests that went to either MK or IoA but didn't go to the other brand. Many of the 13-17 mil probobly stop not only at all the theme parks at Disney or Universal but likely do both.

 

[DCTooTall]

TBH....


What I think is a much more interesting number which I saw in last year's numbers....

Amount of Revenue/profit from the respective parks divisions of both companies.


Obviously, Disney has a larger overall number, But Parks and Resorts includes the Cruise Line, The resorts, and several locations across the globe with multiple parks at each location.

Universal doesn't have a cruise line. They don't really have their own hotels. And they have a smaller number of parks than Disney.


That Said.... Comcast/Universal reported Park division income at about 1/2 of what Disney reported, despite being less than 1/2 the size of Disney's Parks and Resort operation.

 

[Pumbaa7287]

I'd love to see a breakdown (and it may have been done somewhere) of what the average person spends per day at WDW vs. Uni/IoA

 

[DCTooTall]

I'd love to see a breakdown (and it may have been done somewhere) of what the average person spends per day at WDW vs. Uni/IoA

Well one thing that I just found pretty interesting. Because of the way the tickets are front loaded, Universal has an advantage in just admission pricing.

Just going off of 1 day per park... single park per day tickets with no additional add-ons. Adult tickets


Universal... 2 day ticket (US and IOA), $60 per person per day

Disney.... 4 Day Ticket (MK, EPCOT, MGM, AK) $64 Per Person per day.


Add an extra day at Disney (almost needed to see everything), and your price has dropped to $53 per day.

Universal can get away with shorter hours because 1. there is something to do at the property after the parks close in the Citywalk district... and 2. You don't need as many days to see everything.... so you have less people in the parks because you don't have as many people there for multiple days trying to see everything.

so In my honest... and purely uneducated speculative opinion.... Universal comes out ahead because they get almost the same per-guest per-day at the 1 park per day level, yet can get away realistically with less overhead due to shorter hours (vs. Disney who you gotta admit.... if they closed the parks any earlier and you'd feel completely gyped. Universal I never have that issue....except MAYBE during HHN when the studios closes at 5 on event nights).

Food costs are about the same... so I'd say that's a wash between the two resorts...

But Souvenirs? On a Per guest per day average.... I'd be willing to bet on average Universal comes out ahead. With people spending less time at the parks, you have less time to buy the crap in their shops than at Disney. So even if your souvenir budget is the same between the parks.... $50... $100... whatever.... When you look at the averages, $100 between the 2 days at Universal is $50 per day. $100 between the 4 days at disney comes out to $25 per day.


So ultimately.... Disney makes more money overall from each guest due to the fact they are spending more time at Disney (Including things like the DDP which doesn't save a ton of money, and you'd be still paying for your food at Disney while at Universal parks... and even the onsite hotel if you stay onsite at Disney and commute/Taxi it to Universal).... But on a per guest, per day average, I'm thinking Universal may come out ahead.

 

[Lewisc]

. They don't really have their own hotels.

Universal has 3, soon to be 4, hotels onsite. We have no idea how much revenue Universal gets as a result of their contract with Loews. Contracting with Loews to operate the hotels was probably a smart move.

 

[DCTooTall]

Universal has 3, soon to be 4, hotels onsite. We have no idea how much revenue Universal gets as a result of their contract with Loews. Contracting with Loews to operate the hotels was probably a smart move.

That's why I said they don't really have their own hotels. They are official on-site resorts.... but since I don't know the extent of their relationship with Lowes I didn't classify them as the same as Disney's hotels. Since I don't know if it's a simply management fee to Lowes to run them.... or if Lowes runs them virtually independantly with just a flat kickback to Universal (even if it's a flat % amount based off revenue), I didn't realy think I should classify them as "onsite" the same way that Disney's Onsite hotels are.

 

[DanBoris]

Another interesting set of numbers to through into this discussion are the Orlando Tourism numbers:

http://corporate.visitorlando.com/research-and-statistics/research-summary/

 

[lockedoutlogic]

That's why I said they don't really have their own hotels. They are official on-site resorts.... but since I don't know the extent of their relationship with Lowes I didn't classify them as the same as Disney's hotels. Since I don't know if it's a simply management fee to Lowes to run them.... or if Lowes runs them virtually independantly with just a flat kickback to Universal (even if it's a flat % amount based off revenue), I didn't realy think I should classify them as "onsite" the same way that Disney's Onsite hotels are.

yeah...the hotel thing is great for universal...but it doesn't compare to the mouse on that...

just off of my head they have around 28,000 units - probably about 3,000 high occupancy DVC rooms...and they run the whole she-bang so all profits go back to them.

no matter what deal Uni has with Loews...they will lag significantly in profit to disney now and forever because of that...

Did i see someone say there was a "average expenditure per guest" stat?

That number is the whole ballgame...that is what Disney has always been concerned with and what they've worked the last 25 years to drive up.

 

[DCTooTall]

yeah...the hotel thing is great for universal...but it doesn't compare to the mouse on that...

just off of my head they have around 28,000 units - probably about 3,000 high occupancy DVC rooms...and they run the whole she-bang so all profits go back to them.

no matter what deal Uni has with Loews...they will lag significantly in profit to disney now and forever because of that...

Did i see someone say there was a "average expenditure per guest" stat?

That number is the whole ballgame...that is what Disney has always been concerned with and what they've worked the last 25 years to drive up.

Someone wondered what the average daily expenditure was. For JUST the parks side, I did the ole' pull numbers out of my a$$ and it appears that Universal may win there just due to the fact guests usually spend less overall time at Universal, so between the Front Loaded tickets dropping your per-day ticket costs down over the longer Disney stay, and the fact people get all their universal trinkets during a day or two instead of spread out over the course of the week... It just seems logical that the per-day average would be higher than at Disney.

OVERALL spending per guest? Disney wins hands down between the longer stays and the fact they have managed to convince large numbers of guests to spend their entire vacation budget onsite between the DDP, Onsite hotels, and the numerous parks and smaller attractions (water parks & more).


What started part of this is something I noticed as interesting in last year's EOY Financials which had Universal Parks not being too far behind Disney Parks and Resorts on the yearly revenue despite being a much smaller player... both in orlando, and in overall international nd related businesses. (Isn't DCL part of Parks and Resorts?)

 

[lockedoutlogic]

OVERALL spending per guest? Disney wins hands down between the longer stays and the fact they have managed to convince large numbers of guests to spend their entire vacation budget onsite between the DDP, Onsite hotels, and the numerous parks and smaller attractions (water parks & more).


What started part of this is something I noticed as interesting in last year's EOY Financials which had Universal Parks not being too far behind Disney Parks and Resorts on the yearly revenue despite being a much smaller player... both in orlando, and in overall international nd related businesses. (Isn't DCL part of Parks and Resorts?)

Revenue and profit are two different animals...

from TWDC's stock reports....annual revenue from gate is about 3-3.5 billion...but revenue from merch and sales is 3-3.5 billion.

the first number is low/no profit....the other could be as high as 80% profit.

Thats where the rat gets ya...

So whatever universals revenue number...when they are doing things like paying loews to run hotels...it erodes the profits...and that is all that matters.

As far as whats included in disney parks....DCL is....
I think they have now separated Paris from the North American Parks from an accounting standpoint...but they still have at least a 50% share in Paris along with a chunk of the huge debt there...

Japan and China are completely separate...OLC in Japan and some variant on the People's Republic in China

 

[DCTooTall]

Revenue and profit are two different animals...

from TWDC's stock reports....annual revenue from gate is about 3-3.5 billion...but revenue from merch and sales is 3-3.5 billion.

the first number is low/no profit....the other could be as high as 80% profit.

Thats where the rat gets ya...

So whatever universals revenue number...when they are doing things like paying loews to run hotels...it erodes the profits...and that is all that matters.

As far as whats included in disney parks....DCL is....
I think they have now separated Paris from the North American Parks from an accounting standpoint...but they still have at least a 50% share in Paris along with a chunk of the huge debt there...

Japan and China are completely separate...OLC in Japan and some variant on the People's Republic in China

Here we go.... I dug back up the numbers I was remembering that impressed me.


Universal's Numbers for FY2011 from
http://www.cmcsa.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=648704

Themepark Revenue (In millions) 1,989
Themepark Operating Cash Flow (profit) 867

Theme Parks

Theme Parks results are presented as if the Universal Orlando transaction, which closed on July 1, 2011, was effective on January 1, 2010. As a result, Theme Parks segment revenue and operating cash flow includes the results of Universal Orlando, Universal Hollywood and international licensing fees.

For the fourth quarter of 2011, revenue from the Theme Parks segment increased 4.0% to $498 million compared to $478 million in the fourth quarter of 2010, driven by higher per capita spending at the Orlando and Hollywood parks. Fourth quarter operating cash flow increased 16.2% to $223 million compared to $192 million in the same period last year. Excluding acquisition-related accounting revisions totaling $32 million, operating cash flow was flat at $191 million (see Table 6).

For the year ended December 31, 2011, revenue from the Theme Parks segment increased 24.3% to $2.0 billion compared to $1.6 billion in 2010, driven by the strength of The Wizarding World of Harry PotterTM attraction in Orlando and the King KongTM attraction in Hollywood. Operating cash flow increased 46.6% to $867 million compared to $591 million in 2010. Excluding acquisition-related accounting revisions totaling $32 million, operating cash flow increased 41.2% to $835 million (see Table 6).

For Disney FY2011 taken from http://cdn.media.ir.thewaltdisneycompany.com/2011/annual/WDC-10kwrap-2011.pdf

(numbers in Millions)

Parks and Resorts Revenue 11,797
Parks and Resorts Operating Income (profit) 1,553

The Company owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida, the Disneyland Resort in California, Aulani, a
Disney Resort & Spa in Hawaii, the Disney Vacation Club, the Disney Cruise Line, and Adventures by Disney. The Company
manages and has effective ownership interests of 51% in Disneyland Paris, 47% in Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, and 43% in
Shanghai Disney Resort. The Company also licenses the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort in Japan. The Company’s Walt
Disney Imagineering unit designs and develops new theme park concepts and attractions as well as resort properties.

The businesses in the Parks and Resorts segment generate revenues predominately from the sale of admissions to the theme
parks; charges for room nights at the hotels; merchandise, food and beverage sales; sales and rentals of vacation club properties;
and sales of cruise vacations. Costs consist principally of labor; depreciation; costs of merchandise, food and beverage sold;
marketing and sales expense; repairs and maintenance; and entertainment.

One thing I did see that was interesting though in the Annual report...

The following table presents supplemental attendance, per capita theme park guest spending, and hotel statistics:
Domestic
Fiscal Year
2011
Hotels (1)
Occupancy 82 %
Available Room Nights
(in thousands) 9,625
Per Room Guest Spending $ 241 $

(1) Per room guest spending consists of the average daily hotel room rate as well as guest spending on food, beverages and merchandise at the
hotels. Hotel statistics include rentals of Disney Vacation Club units.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

TooTall

Oh god, i'll take your word for it...

I don't want to be up at 2 in the morning reading the disney stock report - or comcast's for that matter - gleaning stats for webboard posts.

been down the road before - aint going back.

 

[DCTooTall]

TooTall

Oh god, i'll take your word for it...

I don't want to be up at 2 in the morning reading the disney stock report - or comcast's for that matter - gleaning stats for webboard posts.

been down the road before - aint going back.

Fair 'nuff....

 

[bcrook]

I think the only important figure would end up being guests that went to either MK or IoA but didn't go to the other brand. Many of the 13-17 mil probobly stop not only at all the theme parks at Disney or Universal but likely do both.

So lets say the number of unique guest number is getting closer and closer together. Lets just say 10,000,000 guests come to Orlando and these same guests visit both brands. Now the fight becomes who can get people to show up to their parks for more days.

It sure looks like universal is attacking this problem with more on site amenities and more attractions. While Disney is trying to use the magicband.

If Orlando attracts 50 million visitors a year I wonder how many of this them are unique visitors? That might indicate hat a substantial part of those visitors don't go to Disney World. So maybe there is a high percentage guests who only visit one location or the other. The price should cause people to choose just one.