Lately, people have been reporting that the price quote they are given to upgrade at check-in is typically the difference in the rack rates. It's been a long time since I've seen anyone post that they got a great deal on a concierge upgrade at check-in. If you don't care either way, then it couldn't hurt to ask when you get there. I just wouldn't count on it.
I have to agree with TammiMcMan, all I have heard was when asked.. that cost is the different between the 2 rates. I have be lucky enough to receive a couple of upgrades during slower seasons.
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